Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[R-V]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

Revisiting the Almora discussion from last year...the Lorenzo Cain comp is looking pretty good from an offensive standpoint:

Cain career line: .285/.337/.417/.755
Almora thus far: .276/.321/.417/.738

One caveat - Almora is crushing LHP while not doing much of anything against RHP, while Cain has put up respectable numbers against RHP. Of course, it's still early, he's not playing every day, Maddon has intentionally given him favorable matchups against LHP, etc etc.

If Fat Albert could just shed whatever lead weights he's carrying around in his shoes so he could actually provide some value defensively and on the basepaths, we'd have a stew going.

[SKO]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

Revisiting the Almora discussion from last year...the Lorenzo Cain comp is looking pretty good from an offensive standpoint:

Cain career line: .285/.337/.417/.755
Almora thus far: .276/.321/.417/.738

One caveat - Almora is crushing LHP while not doing much of anything against RHP, while Cain has put up respectable numbers against RHP. Of course, it's still early, he's not playing every day, Maddon has intentionally given him favorable matchups against LHP, etc etc.

If Fat Albert could just shed whatever lead weights he's carrying around in his shoes so he could actually provide some value defensively and on the basepaths, we'd have a stew going.

Yeah it sounds like Albert added bulk to have more power this year and it's cost him defensively. Not much he can do about it now but hopefully in the offseason he eases up a bit, because the team can deal with him not providing much pop, they need the defense. Then again if CF is really Happ's for the foreseeable future who knows where Al will be next year. Either way he's certainly become a much better offensive player already than I expected based on 2014/2015 in the minors.

[R-V]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

Revisiting the Almora discussion from last year...the Lorenzo Cain comp is looking pretty good from an offensive standpoint:

Cain career line: .285/.337/.417/.755
Almora thus far: .276/.321/.417/.738

One caveat - Almora is crushing LHP while not doing much of anything against RHP, while Cain has put up respectable numbers against RHP. Of course, it's still early, he's not playing every day, Maddon has intentionally given him favorable matchups against LHP, etc etc.

If Fat Albert could just shed whatever lead weights he's carrying around in his shoes so he could actually provide some value defensively and on the basepaths, we'd have a stew going.

Yeah it sounds like Albert added bulk to have more power this year and it's cost him defensively. Not much he can do about it now but hopefully in the offseason he eases up a bit, because the team can deal with him not providing much pop, they need the defense. Then again if CF is really Happ's for the foreseeable future who knows where Al will be next year. Either way he's certainly become a much better offensive player already than I expected based on 2014/2015 in the minors.

If they'd just implement the rassafrassin' DH in the NL already, it would help. But once Jay & Zobrist ride off into the sunset, a 4 way OF timeshare among Schwarber, Happ, Almora and Heyward is workable. Between Schwarber taking on DH duty in AL parks and Happ also getting some infield playing time, I'm guessing you could get each of them about 500 PAs.

[Quality Start Machine]

If Fat Albert could just shed whatever lead weights he's carrying around in his shoes so he could actually provide some value defensively and on the basepaths, we'd have a stew going.

This is a keeper.

[Saul Goodman]

If Fat Albert could just shed whatever lead weights he's carrying around in his shoes so he could actually provide some value defensively and on the basepaths, we'd have a stew going.

This is a keeper.

Least surprising something something since something ever.

[Quality Start Machine]

If Fat Albert could just shed whatever lead weights he's carrying around in his shoes so he could actually provide some value defensively and on the basepaths, we'd have a stew going.

This is a keeper.

It dovetails nicely with BMIez.

Least surprising something something since something ever.

[PenFoe]

*Injects methadone*

Pretty sure I've been the last one on the Jen-Ho Tseng bandwagon since like 2 years ago, but he's still making some waves out there.  

In his second start since being promoted to Iowa (still only 22 years old) he's currently at 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K.
The concern has been in the lack of Ks, but he's up to over 8 K/9, which is the highest of his career.  

Kid has a chance.

Like that has ever stopped me before.

Minor league pitcher of the year, making his Cubs debut tomorrow. 

[Quality Start Machine]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

[SKO]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

I laugh a lot because there's a general consensus among Cardinals fans (probably among Brewers fans and Pirates fans) that this Cubs window ends in 2021 and the Cardinals just need to keep their MUCH BETTER FARM SYSTEM going and pounce when the time is right. I don't get it. The Cubs aren't some small market team, they have the resources to extend members of the current core, supplement with guys like Harper when possible, and most of all the Cardinals having a "better farm" right now (one that still lacks any real star potential beyond the reddest of red flags in Reyes) means nothing when most of the Cubs core is younger than 26. The idea that Theo can't re-stock the cupboard without a top 5 draft pick every year is very weird and inaccurate historically.

Long story short they may not stay as good as they are with this core forever, but the odds that they do anything more than drop down into wildcard contention for a few years in 2021-2023 before gearing up for another run in 2025-On seem higher than the odds that once (or if) a bunch of this group leaves after 2021 they'll just tank again.

[Chuck to Chuck]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

I laugh a lot because there's a general consensus among Cardinals fans (probably among Brewers fans and Pirates fans) that this Cubs window ends in 2021 and the Cardinals just need to keep their MUCH BETTER FARM SYSTEM going and pounce when the time is right. I don't get it. The Cubs aren't some small market team, they have the resources to extend members of the current core, supplement with guys like Harper when possible, and most of all the Cardinals having a "better farm" right now (one that still lacks any real star potential beyond the reddest of red flags in Reyes) means nothing when most of the Cubs core is younger than 26. The idea that Theo can't re-stock the cupboard without a top 5 draft pick every year is very weird and inaccurate historically.

Long story short they may not stay as good as they are with this core forever, but the odds that they do anything more than drop down into wildcard contention for a few years in 2021-2023 before gearing up for another run in 2025-On seem higher than the odds that once (or if) a bunch of this group leaves after 2021 they'll just tank again.

There are two wildcards here. 1) The next CBA. Who knows what will be in there, but I expect it to be more towards fewer arbitration years and a shorter period of time before free agency (perhaps 7 years from initial contract signing with MLB service time no longer being counted); and 2) If Crane actually manages to get the Cubs a network deal in line with what other teams have received.

[SKO]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

I laugh a lot because there's a general consensus among Cardinals fans (probably among Brewers fans and Pirates fans) that this Cubs window ends in 2021 and the Cardinals just need to keep their MUCH BETTER FARM SYSTEM going and pounce when the time is right. I don't get it. The Cubs aren't some small market team, they have the resources to extend members of the current core, supplement with guys like Harper when possible, and most of all the Cardinals having a "better farm" right now (one that still lacks any real star potential beyond the reddest of red flags in Reyes) means nothing when most of the Cubs core is younger than 26. The idea that Theo can't re-stock the cupboard without a top 5 draft pick every year is very weird and inaccurate historically.

Long story short they may not stay as good as they are with this core forever, but the odds that they do anything more than drop down into wildcard contention for a few years in 2021-2023 before gearing up for another run in 2025-On seem higher than the odds that once (or if) a bunch of this group leaves after 2021 they'll just tank again.

There are two wildcards here. 1) The next CBA. Who knows what will be in there, but I expect it to be more towards fewer arbitration years and a shorter period of time before free agency (perhaps 7 years from initial contract signing with MLB service time no longer being counted); and 2) If Crane actually manages to get the Cubs a network deal in line with what other teams have received.

As for the first, I have no idea, but a CBA would impact every team, so I would still expect that whatever happens the richer and smarter teams will have the advantage still, as they do now, even if that advantage isn't what it was in 2003 or whatever. Also I'm not sure exactly how accurate this is:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

But the Cubs in 2016 were 4th in MLB in revenues at 434 million. That's barely less than the Dodgers (462 million) and their vaunted cable deal, even with the Cubs current crappy TV set up. If they manage to secure a massive deal like LA got they'll probably rival the Yankees for top team, but even if they just stay where they are I don't see any reason why they couldn't outbid whomever for whatever they want.

Keeping the core together/keeping the team competitive will be about execution, they won't fail from lack of resources regardless. The Cubs are a license to print money.

[Oleg]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

I laugh a lot because there's a general consensus among Cardinals fans (probably among Brewers fans and Pirates fans) that this Cubs window ends in 2021 and the Cardinals just need to keep their MUCH BETTER FARM SYSTEM going and pounce when the time is right. I don't get it. The Cubs aren't some small market team, they have the resources to extend members of the current core, supplement with guys like Harper when possible, and most of all the Cardinals having a "better farm" right now (one that still lacks any real star potential beyond the reddest of red flags in Reyes) means nothing when most of the Cubs core is younger than 26. The idea that Theo can't re-stock the cupboard without a top 5 draft pick every year is very weird and inaccurate historically.

Long story short they may not stay as good as they are with this core forever, but the odds that they do anything more than drop down into wildcard contention for a few years in 2021-2023 before gearing up for another run in 2025-On seem higher than the odds that once (or if) a bunch of this group leaves after 2021 they'll just tank again.

I do think that there is a bit of a level-setter in the recent CBA...while the richer teams could use the international pool of players to buy prospects (Moncada, Soler, the serial killer with two first names the Sox signed last year are examples), the new CBA disallows that sort of spending.  It really evens the playing field a lot.  Of course it only serves to suppress amatuer signings but the days of the Cubs getting the top two international free agents, like with Gleyber and Eloy, are probably over.

That is of little concern as I think about the future but it is something.

[SKO]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

I laugh a lot because there's a general consensus among Cardinals fans (probably among Brewers fans and Pirates fans) that this Cubs window ends in 2021 and the Cardinals just need to keep their MUCH BETTER FARM SYSTEM going and pounce when the time is right. I don't get it. The Cubs aren't some small market team, they have the resources to extend members of the current core, supplement with guys like Harper when possible, and most of all the Cardinals having a "better farm" right now (one that still lacks any real star potential beyond the reddest of red flags in Reyes) means nothing when most of the Cubs core is younger than 26. The idea that Theo can't re-stock the cupboard without a top 5 draft pick every year is very weird and inaccurate historically.

Long story short they may not stay as good as they are with this core forever, but the odds that they do anything more than drop down into wildcard contention for a few years in 2021-2023 before gearing up for another run in 2025-On seem higher than the odds that once (or if) a bunch of this group leaves after 2021 they'll just tank again.

I do think that there is a bit of a level-setter in the recent CBA...while the richer teams could use the international pool of players to buy prospects (Moncada, Soler, the serial killer with two first names the Sox signed last year are examples), the new CBA disallows that sort of spending.  It really evens the playing field a lot.  Of course it only serves to suppress amatuer signings but the days of the Cubs getting the top two international free agents, like with Gleyber and Eloy, are probably over.

That is of little concern as I think about the future but it is something.

I think in the event that they curtail the amount of money teams can offer then the importance of your program, your recruiting pitch, your recent success at developing and getting guys to the majors, etc will take precedence. In which case the Cubs should remain a prime destination anyway.

[Oleg]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

I laugh a lot because there's a general consensus among Cardinals fans (probably among Brewers fans and Pirates fans) that this Cubs window ends in 2021 and the Cardinals just need to keep their MUCH BETTER FARM SYSTEM going and pounce when the time is right. I don't get it. The Cubs aren't some small market team, they have the resources to extend members of the current core, supplement with guys like Harper when possible, and most of all the Cardinals having a "better farm" right now (one that still lacks any real star potential beyond the reddest of red flags in Reyes) means nothing when most of the Cubs core is younger than 26. The idea that Theo can't re-stock the cupboard without a top 5 draft pick every year is very weird and inaccurate historically.

Long story short they may not stay as good as they are with this core forever, but the odds that they do anything more than drop down into wildcard contention for a few years in 2021-2023 before gearing up for another run in 2025-On seem higher than the odds that once (or if) a bunch of this group leaves after 2021 they'll just tank again.

I do think that there is a bit of a level-setter in the recent CBA...while the richer teams could use the international pool of players to buy prospects (Moncada, Soler, the serial killer with two first names the Sox signed last year are examples), the new CBA disallows that sort of spending.  It really evens the playing field a lot.  Of course it only serves to suppress amatuer signings but the days of the Cubs getting the top two international free agents, like with Gleyber and Eloy, are probably over.

That is of little concern as I think about the future but it is something.

I think in the event that they curtail the amount of money teams can offer then the importance of your program, your recruiting pitch, your recent success at developing and getting guys to the majors, etc will take precedence. In which case the Cubs should remain a prime destination anyway.

These are 16 year old kids.  All the care about is money and broads.

[Quality Start Machine]

Bump for the Cubs holding 5 of the first 100 picks in the draft (24,63,76,79,98 - Thanks, Wade and Jake) and being out of the International penalty box come July.

The hits just keep on coming.

I laugh a lot because there's a general consensus among Cardinals fans (probably among Brewers fans and Pirates fans) that this Cubs window ends in 2021 and the Cardinals just need to keep their MUCH BETTER FARM SYSTEM going and pounce when the time is right. I don't get it. The Cubs aren't some small market team, they have the resources to extend members of the current core, supplement with guys like Harper when possible, and most of all the Cardinals having a "better farm" right now (one that still lacks any real star potential beyond the reddest of red flags in Reyes) means nothing when most of the Cubs core is younger than 26. The idea that Theo can't re-stock the cupboard without a top 5 draft pick every year is very weird and inaccurate historically.

Long story short they may not stay as good as they are with this core forever, but the odds that they do anything more than drop down into wildcard contention for a few years in 2021-2023 before gearing up for another run in 2025-On seem higher than the odds that once (or if) a bunch of this group leaves after 2021 they'll just tank again.

There are two wildcards here. 1) The next CBA. Who knows what will be in there, but I expect it to be more towards fewer arbitration years and a shorter period of time before free agency (perhaps 7 years from initial contract signing with MLB service time no longer being counted); and 2) If Crane actually manages to get the Cubs a network deal in line with what other teams have received.

Yeah, because Tony Clark did such a bang-up job on this CBA - MLB walked right up to the salary cap line with no pushback.