Jake Arrieta 2017 Salary Drive Sploogefest

[CT III]

That's probably the worst game Jake's pitched in over 2 months (lots of 2-0 counts in the first 4 IP, uncharacteristic of him) and yet he still ended up throwing 8 innings and allowed 1 run and managed to lower his ERA.

He has been positively Sutcliffian v.1984 since June.  His viability for the Cy Young is so less laughable than it was a month ago.  The.  Balls.

What?

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

That's probably the worst game Jake's pitched in over 2 months (lots of 2-0 counts in the first 4 IP, uncharacteristic of him) and yet he still ended up throwing 8 innings and allowed 1 run and managed to lower his ERA.

He has been positively Sutcliffian v.1984 since June.  His viability for the Cy Young is so less laughable than it was a month ago.  The.  Balls.

What?

1) I was drunk
2) see #1

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

[Tonker]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

[Oleg]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke Kershaw, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

I fixed it for you.

[Tonker]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke Kershaw, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

I fixed it for you.

Whuh?

[ChuckD]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke Kershaw, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

I fixed it for you.

Whuh?

I wouldn't say "clearly" but Kershaw, despite owning 3 of the last 4 CYA and having a historically good year, is completely under the radar. He'll probably finish 3rd due to the ERA and W numbers that Arrieta and Greinke have, but he's on pace for about an 8.5 WAR season. WAR is obviously a new invention, but there have been 55 such 8.5+ WAR pitching seasons since 1920 -- of those, 28 earned the CYA. Two occurred before the award was around, and 9 of the other 25 lost to one of those guys with an 8.5+ WAR season.

Here's the top 15 FIPs among qualified pitchers since 1969:

Code Select Expand

# Season Name Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
1 1999 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 23 4 0 31 29 213.1 13.20 1.56 0.38 .323 77.6 % 2.07 1.39 11.6
2 1984 Dwight Gooden Mets 17 9 0 31 31 218.0 11.39 3.01 0.29 .296 72.5 % 2.60 1.69 8.3
3 2014 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 21 3 0 27 27 198.1 10.85 1.41 0.41 .278 81.6 % 51.8 % 6.6 % 1.77 1.81 2.08 7.7
4 1971 Tom Seaver Mets 20 10 0 36 35 286.1 9.08 1.92 0.57 .263 85.7 % 1.76 1.94 9.1
5 2013 Matt Harvey Mets 9 5 0 26 26 178.1 9.64 1.56 0.35 .280 77.4 % 47.7 % 4.7 % 2.27 2.00 2.63 6.5
6 1972 Steve Carlton Phillies 27 10 0 41 41 346.1 8.06 2.26 0.44 .258 81.7 % 1.97 2.07 11.1
7 1995 Randy Johnson Mariners 18 2 0 30 30 214.1 12.35 2.73 0.50 .301 77.4 % 2.48 2.08 9.5
8 2015 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 13 6 0 28 28 201.0 11.60 1.61 0.63 .283 78.6 % 51.5 % 11.0 % 2.15 2.08 2.10 7.3
9 1981 Bill Gullickson Expos 7 9 0 22 22 157.1 6.58 1.94 0.17 .287 71.7 % 2.80 2.11 4.8
10 1985 Dwight Gooden Mets 24 4 0 35 35 276.2 8.72 2.24 0.42 .259 86.9 % 1.53 2.13 8.9
11 2001 Randy Johnson Diamondbacks 21 6 0 35 34 249.2 13.41 2.56 0.68 .315 80.5 % 2.49 2.13 10.4
12 1986 Mike Scott Astros 18 10 0 37 37 275.1 10.00 2.35 0.56 .247 78.8 % 2.22 2.16 8.6
13 1971 Don Sutton Dodgers 17 12 1 38 37 265.1 6.58 1.87 0.34 .278 74.4 % 2.54 2.16 7.1
14 2000 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 18 6 0 29 29 217.0 11.78 1.33 0.71 .236 86.6 % 1.74 2.17 9.4
15 1988 Roger Clemens Red Sox 18 12 0 35 35 264.0 9.92 2.11 0.58 .291 73.5 % 2.93 2.17 9.2

But if you go back another ~50 years to 1920, he only drops down 6 slots to 14th (Gibson, Tiant, and Moose from '68; Koufax in '63 and '65; Newhouser in '46).

[Tonker]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke Kershaw, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

I fixed it for you.

Whuh?

I wouldn't say "clearly" but Kershaw, despite owning 3 of the last 4 CYA and having a historically good year, is completely under the radar. He'll probably finish 3rd due to the ERA and W numbers that Arrieta and Greinke have, but he's on pace for about an 8.5 WAR season. WAR is obviously a new invention, but there have been 55 such 8.5+ WAR pitching seasons since 1920 -- of those, 28 earned the CYA. Two occurred before the award was around, and 9 of the other 25 lost to one of those guys with an 8.5+ WAR season.

Here's the top 15 FIPs among qualified pitchers since 1969:

Code Select Expand

# Season Name Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
1 1999 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 23 4 0 31 29 213.1 13.20 1.56 0.38 .323 77.6 % 2.07 1.39 11.6
2 1984 Dwight Gooden Mets 17 9 0 31 31 218.0 11.39 3.01 0.29 .296 72.5 % 2.60 1.69 8.3
3 2014 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 21 3 0 27 27 198.1 10.85 1.41 0.41 .278 81.6 % 51.8 % 6.6 % 1.77 1.81 2.08 7.7
4 1971 Tom Seaver Mets 20 10 0 36 35 286.1 9.08 1.92 0.57 .263 85.7 % 1.76 1.94 9.1
5 2013 Matt Harvey Mets 9 5 0 26 26 178.1 9.64 1.56 0.35 .280 77.4 % 47.7 % 4.7 % 2.27 2.00 2.63 6.5
6 1972 Steve Carlton Phillies 27 10 0 41 41 346.1 8.06 2.26 0.44 .258 81.7 % 1.97 2.07 11.1
7 1995 Randy Johnson Mariners 18 2 0 30 30 214.1 12.35 2.73 0.50 .301 77.4 % 2.48 2.08 9.5
8 2015 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 13 6 0 28 28 201.0 11.60 1.61 0.63 .283 78.6 % 51.5 % 11.0 % 2.15 2.08 2.10 7.3
9 1981 Bill Gullickson Expos 7 9 0 22 22 157.1 6.58 1.94 0.17 .287 71.7 % 2.80 2.11 4.8
10 1985 Dwight Gooden Mets 24 4 0 35 35 276.2 8.72 2.24 0.42 .259 86.9 % 1.53 2.13 8.9
11 2001 Randy Johnson Diamondbacks 21 6 0 35 34 249.2 13.41 2.56 0.68 .315 80.5 % 2.49 2.13 10.4
12 1986 Mike Scott Astros 18 10 0 37 37 275.1 10.00 2.35 0.56 .247 78.8 % 2.22 2.16 8.6
13 1971 Don Sutton Dodgers 17 12 1 38 37 265.1 6.58 1.87 0.34 .278 74.4 % 2.54 2.16 7.1
14 2000 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 18 6 0 29 29 217.0 11.78 1.33 0.71 .236 86.6 % 1.74 2.17 9.4
15 1988 Roger Clemens Red Sox 18 12 0 35 35 264.0 9.92 2.11 0.58 .291 73.5 % 2.93 2.17 9.2

But if you go back another ~50 years to 1920, he only drops down 6 slots to 14th (Gibson, Tiant, and Moose from '68; Koufax in '63 and '65; Newhouser in '46).

I was going on WAR:

Greinke: 8.0
Arrieta: 7.1
Kershaw: 6.5
Scherzer: 4.9

I don't care what Oleg's been smoking, Kershaw is having the third best season in the NL this year.

[Oleg]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke Kershaw, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

I fixed it for you.

Whuh?

I wouldn't say "clearly" but Kershaw, despite owning 3 of the last 4 CYA and having a historically good year, is completely under the radar. He'll probably finish 3rd due to the ERA and W numbers that Arrieta and Greinke have, but he's on pace for about an 8.5 WAR season. WAR is obviously a new invention, but there have been 55 such 8.5+ WAR pitching seasons since 1920 -- of those, 28 earned the CYA. Two occurred before the award was around, and 9 of the other 25 lost to one of those guys with an 8.5+ WAR season.

Here's the top 15 FIPs among qualified pitchers since 1969:

Code Select Expand

# Season Name Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
1 1999 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 23 4 0 31 29 213.1 13.20 1.56 0.38 .323 77.6 % 2.07 1.39 11.6
2 1984 Dwight Gooden Mets 17 9 0 31 31 218.0 11.39 3.01 0.29 .296 72.5 % 2.60 1.69 8.3
3 2014 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 21 3 0 27 27 198.1 10.85 1.41 0.41 .278 81.6 % 51.8 % 6.6 % 1.77 1.81 2.08 7.7
4 1971 Tom Seaver Mets 20 10 0 36 35 286.1 9.08 1.92 0.57 .263 85.7 % 1.76 1.94 9.1
5 2013 Matt Harvey Mets 9 5 0 26 26 178.1 9.64 1.56 0.35 .280 77.4 % 47.7 % 4.7 % 2.27 2.00 2.63 6.5
6 1972 Steve Carlton Phillies 27 10 0 41 41 346.1 8.06 2.26 0.44 .258 81.7 % 1.97 2.07 11.1
7 1995 Randy Johnson Mariners 18 2 0 30 30 214.1 12.35 2.73 0.50 .301 77.4 % 2.48 2.08 9.5
8 2015 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 13 6 0 28 28 201.0 11.60 1.61 0.63 .283 78.6 % 51.5 % 11.0 % 2.15 2.08 2.10 7.3
9 1981 Bill Gullickson Expos 7 9 0 22 22 157.1 6.58 1.94 0.17 .287 71.7 % 2.80 2.11 4.8
10 1985 Dwight Gooden Mets 24 4 0 35 35 276.2 8.72 2.24 0.42 .259 86.9 % 1.53 2.13 8.9
11 2001 Randy Johnson Diamondbacks 21 6 0 35 34 249.2 13.41 2.56 0.68 .315 80.5 % 2.49 2.13 10.4
12 1986 Mike Scott Astros 18 10 0 37 37 275.1 10.00 2.35 0.56 .247 78.8 % 2.22 2.16 8.6
13 1971 Don Sutton Dodgers 17 12 1 38 37 265.1 6.58 1.87 0.34 .278 74.4 % 2.54 2.16 7.1
14 2000 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 18 6 0 29 29 217.0 11.78 1.33 0.71 .236 86.6 % 1.74 2.17 9.4
15 1988 Roger Clemens Red Sox 18 12 0 35 35 264.0 9.92 2.11 0.58 .291 73.5 % 2.93 2.17 9.2

But if you go back another ~50 years to 1920, he only drops down 6 slots to 14th (Gibson, Tiant, and Moose from '68; Koufax in '63 and '65; Newhouser in '46).

I was going on WAR:

Greinke: 8.0
Arrieta: 7.1
Kershaw: 6.5
Scherzer: 4.9

I don't care what Oleg's been smoking, Kershaw is having the third best season in the NL this year.

You're using bWAR.  fWAR (which is also what CD was using):

Kershaw: 7.3
Arrieta: 5.9
Greinke: 5.3
Scherzer: 5.0

The difference between Kershaw and Greinke is the same difference as Greinke to Shelby Miller.

Kershaw has also pitched more innings than Greinke with a FIP that's a more than a half a run better. He's also striking out a whole lot more hitters than Greinke is with a very similar BB rate (If you want give Greinke credit for allowing .1 fewer BB per 9, fine.  If it wasn't for some April hiccups, this wouldn't be nearly as close as it is.

So, despite what I've been smoking, Kershaw is the best pitcher in the world.  And, he only further proves that this year.

[Tonker]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke Kershaw, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

I fixed it for you.

Whuh?

I wouldn't say "clearly" but Kershaw, despite owning 3 of the last 4 CYA and having a historically good year, is completely under the radar. He'll probably finish 3rd due to the ERA and W numbers that Arrieta and Greinke have, but he's on pace for about an 8.5 WAR season. WAR is obviously a new invention, but there have been 55 such 8.5+ WAR pitching seasons since 1920 -- of those, 28 earned the CYA. Two occurred before the award was around, and 9 of the other 25 lost to one of those guys with an 8.5+ WAR season.

Here's the top 15 FIPs among qualified pitchers since 1969:

Code Select Expand

# Season Name Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
1 1999 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 23 4 0 31 29 213.1 13.20 1.56 0.38 .323 77.6 % 2.07 1.39 11.6
2 1984 Dwight Gooden Mets 17 9 0 31 31 218.0 11.39 3.01 0.29 .296 72.5 % 2.60 1.69 8.3
3 2014 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 21 3 0 27 27 198.1 10.85 1.41 0.41 .278 81.6 % 51.8 % 6.6 % 1.77 1.81 2.08 7.7
4 1971 Tom Seaver Mets 20 10 0 36 35 286.1 9.08 1.92 0.57 .263 85.7 % 1.76 1.94 9.1
5 2013 Matt Harvey Mets 9 5 0 26 26 178.1 9.64 1.56 0.35 .280 77.4 % 47.7 % 4.7 % 2.27 2.00 2.63 6.5
6 1972 Steve Carlton Phillies 27 10 0 41 41 346.1 8.06 2.26 0.44 .258 81.7 % 1.97 2.07 11.1
7 1995 Randy Johnson Mariners 18 2 0 30 30 214.1 12.35 2.73 0.50 .301 77.4 % 2.48 2.08 9.5
8 2015 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 13 6 0 28 28 201.0 11.60 1.61 0.63 .283 78.6 % 51.5 % 11.0 % 2.15 2.08 2.10 7.3
9 1981 Bill Gullickson Expos 7 9 0 22 22 157.1 6.58 1.94 0.17 .287 71.7 % 2.80 2.11 4.8
10 1985 Dwight Gooden Mets 24 4 0 35 35 276.2 8.72 2.24 0.42 .259 86.9 % 1.53 2.13 8.9
11 2001 Randy Johnson Diamondbacks 21 6 0 35 34 249.2 13.41 2.56 0.68 .315 80.5 % 2.49 2.13 10.4
12 1986 Mike Scott Astros 18 10 0 37 37 275.1 10.00 2.35 0.56 .247 78.8 % 2.22 2.16 8.6
13 1971 Don Sutton Dodgers 17 12 1 38 37 265.1 6.58 1.87 0.34 .278 74.4 % 2.54 2.16 7.1
14 2000 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 18 6 0 29 29 217.0 11.78 1.33 0.71 .236 86.6 % 1.74 2.17 9.4
15 1988 Roger Clemens Red Sox 18 12 0 35 35 264.0 9.92 2.11 0.58 .291 73.5 % 2.93 2.17 9.2

But if you go back another ~50 years to 1920, he only drops down 6 slots to 14th (Gibson, Tiant, and Moose from '68; Koufax in '63 and '65; Newhouser in '46).

I was going on WAR:

Greinke: 8.0
Arrieta: 7.1
Kershaw: 6.5
Scherzer: 4.9

I don't care what Oleg's been smoking, Kershaw is having the third best season in the NL this year.

You're using bWAR.  fWAR (which is also what CD was using):

Kershaw: 7.3
Arrieta: 5.9
Greinke: 5.3
Scherzer: 5.0

The difference between Kershaw and Greinke is the same difference as Greinke to Shelby Miller.

Kershaw has also pitched more innings than Greinke with a FIP that's a more than a half a run better. He's also striking out a whole lot more hitters than Greinke is with a very similar BB rate (If you want give Greinke credit for allowing .1 fewer BB per 9, fine.  If it wasn't for some April hiccups, this wouldn't be nearly as close as it is.

So, despite what I've been smoking, Kershaw is the best pitcher in the world.  And, he only further proves that this year.

fWAR is for the birds.

[SKO]

But I think what I was trying to say was that it's so much less laughable in relation to Greinke's chances of winning it, which seemed like a shoo-in. Greinke hasn't fallen off; Jake's just managed to close the gap.

I had a long, hard look at this earlier today.  It still clearly needs to be Greinke Kershaw, although I agree: Arrieta has definitely strengthened his grip on second place and if Greinke gets shelled a couple of times in the next few weeks, who knows?

I fixed it for you.

Whuh?

I wouldn't say "clearly" but Kershaw, despite owning 3 of the last 4 CYA and having a historically good year, is completely under the radar. He'll probably finish 3rd due to the ERA and W numbers that Arrieta and Greinke have, but he's on pace for about an 8.5 WAR season. WAR is obviously a new invention, but there have been 55 such 8.5+ WAR pitching seasons since 1920 -- of those, 28 earned the CYA. Two occurred before the award was around, and 9 of the other 25 lost to one of those guys with an 8.5+ WAR season.

Here's the top 15 FIPs among qualified pitchers since 1969:

Code Select Expand

# Season Name Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
1 1999 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 23 4 0 31 29 213.1 13.20 1.56 0.38 .323 77.6 % 2.07 1.39 11.6
2 1984 Dwight Gooden Mets 17 9 0 31 31 218.0 11.39 3.01 0.29 .296 72.5 % 2.60 1.69 8.3
3 2014 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 21 3 0 27 27 198.1 10.85 1.41 0.41 .278 81.6 % 51.8 % 6.6 % 1.77 1.81 2.08 7.7
4 1971 Tom Seaver Mets 20 10 0 36 35 286.1 9.08 1.92 0.57 .263 85.7 % 1.76 1.94 9.1
5 2013 Matt Harvey Mets 9 5 0 26 26 178.1 9.64 1.56 0.35 .280 77.4 % 47.7 % 4.7 % 2.27 2.00 2.63 6.5
6 1972 Steve Carlton Phillies 27 10 0 41 41 346.1 8.06 2.26 0.44 .258 81.7 % 1.97 2.07 11.1
7 1995 Randy Johnson Mariners 18 2 0 30 30 214.1 12.35 2.73 0.50 .301 77.4 % 2.48 2.08 9.5
8 2015 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 13 6 0 28 28 201.0 11.60 1.61 0.63 .283 78.6 % 51.5 % 11.0 % 2.15 2.08 2.10 7.3
9 1981 Bill Gullickson Expos 7 9 0 22 22 157.1 6.58 1.94 0.17 .287 71.7 % 2.80 2.11 4.8
10 1985 Dwight Gooden Mets 24 4 0 35 35 276.2 8.72 2.24 0.42 .259 86.9 % 1.53 2.13 8.9
11 2001 Randy Johnson Diamondbacks 21 6 0 35 34 249.2 13.41 2.56 0.68 .315 80.5 % 2.49 2.13 10.4
12 1986 Mike Scott Astros 18 10 0 37 37 275.1 10.00 2.35 0.56 .247 78.8 % 2.22 2.16 8.6
13 1971 Don Sutton Dodgers 17 12 1 38 37 265.1 6.58 1.87 0.34 .278 74.4 % 2.54 2.16 7.1
14 2000 Pedro Martinez Red Sox 18 6 0 29 29 217.0 11.78 1.33 0.71 .236 86.6 % 1.74 2.17 9.4
15 1988 Roger Clemens Red Sox 18 12 0 35 35 264.0 9.92 2.11 0.58 .291 73.5 % 2.93 2.17 9.2

But if you go back another ~50 years to 1920, he only drops down 6 slots to 14th (Gibson, Tiant, and Moose from '68; Koufax in '63 and '65; Newhouser in '46).

I was going on WAR:

Greinke: 8.0
Arrieta: 7.1
Kershaw: 6.5
Scherzer: 4.9

I don't care what Oleg's been smoking, Kershaw is having the third best season in the NL this year.

You're using bWAR.  fWAR (which is also what CD was using):

Kershaw: 7.3
Arrieta: 5.9
Greinke: 5.3
Scherzer: 5.0

The difference between Kershaw and Greinke is the same difference as Greinke to Shelby Miller.

Kershaw has also pitched more innings than Greinke with a FIP that's a more than a half a run better. He's also striking out a whole lot more hitters than Greinke is with a very similar BB rate (If you want give Greinke credit for allowing .1 fewer BB per 9, fine.  If it wasn't for some April hiccups, this wouldn't be nearly as close as it is.

So, despite what I've been smoking, Kershaw is the best pitcher in the world.  And, he only further proves that this year.

fWAR is for the birds.

I generally think bWAR vs fWAR is a wash for position players, but bWAR for pitchers is heavily flawed and I believe it relies heavily on ERA, which is itself a problematic stat. So in general I just use fWAR.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I know it works differently than politics but I wonder if there's any chance Greinke and Kershaw somehow "split" the vote, paving the way for Jake.

[Quality Start Machine]

How many BBWAA writers with Cy Young votes know anything about advanced statistics?

My guess is the best combination of wins, strikeouts ane ERA wins.

[Tonker]

How many BBWAA writers with Cy Young votes know anything about advanced statistics?

My guess is the best combination of wins, strikeouts ane ERA wins.

Meh.  It might end up that way, because leading the league in those things has a close correlation with being the best pitcher; but these days, more and more BBWAA writers are aware of the more common advanced stats.  I have increasing confidence in their not just picking the guy who has 22 wins, anyway (which in this case, is actually a shame).

[Oleg]

I know it works differently than politics but I wonder if there's any chance Greinke and Kershaw somehow "split" the vote, paving the way for Jake.

If half the writers vote Kershaw first and the other half vote Greinke first and everyone votes Arrieta second, would that do it?