Jake Arrieta 2017 Salary Drive Sploogefest

[CBStew]

Great, more reporters asking Jake about money.

Cubs ace Jake Arrieta won't offer the team a discount in extension talks, he told reporters, including ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers. According to previous reports, the Cubs have been hesitant to commit to anything greater than a four-year term, and that length clearly isn't of interest to the 30-year-old reigning Cy Young winner. "Aces get seven years," Arrieta candidly said in the interview. Asked what he felt his market to be, Arrieta declined to answer directly, instead telling reporters: "I'll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers." Arrieta again emphasized that his preference is to remain with the Cubs but that being compensated at the same level as the game's other elite arms is also a factor. "Financially I'm fine, regardless," he said. "You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don't think that changes with any guy you ask. It happens around baseball every year."

In before the "Jake is ungrateful to the Cubs/Chris Bosio" takes start!

Aces get seven years because they typically hit free agency at 29 or 30. Jake will be 32 when his deal would start, which matters.

Jake's conditioning will make him an atypical 32 year old starting pitcher, no?

It will make him an extremely well-conditioned 32-year old starting pitcher, yes.

with a little more tread on his tires than you'd generally see. So a 32 year old Arrieta might be as valuable as a 30 year old anybody else. At least that's my guess.

My second oldest son is a Giants' fan, and definitely not a Cub fan.  When Barry Bonds was an active player and an admitted steroid user, I gave my son a heavy ration of "he's a cheater" lectures.  My son now suggests that Arrieta's recent history suggests that there may be some chemical assistance in his conditioning program.  Say it ain't so, Jake

[Saul Goodman]

My second oldest son is a Giants' fan, and definitely not a Cub fan.  When Barry Bonds was an active player and an admitted steroid user, I gave my son a heavy ration of "he's a cheater" lectures.  My son now suggests that Arrieta's recent history suggests that there may be some chemical assistance in his conditioning program.  Say it ain't so, Jake

And you just let that happen? Say it ain't so, Stew.

[Slaky]

My second oldest son is a Giants' fan, and definitely not a Cub fan.  When Barry Bonds was an active player and an admitted steroid user, I gave my son a heavy ration of "he's a cheater" lectures.  My son now suggests that Arrieta's recent history suggests that there may be some chemical assistance in his conditioning program.  Say it ain't so, Jake

And you just let that happen? Say it ain't so, Stew.

Stew is too smart to let his son become a Cubs fan.

[PenFoe]

My second oldest son is a Giants' fan, and definitely not a Cub fan.  When Barry Bonds was an active player and an admitted steroid user, I gave my son a heavy ration of "he's a cheater" lectures.  My son now suggests that Arrieta's recent history suggests that there may be some chemical assistance in his conditioning program.  Say it ain't so, Jake

And you just let that happen? Say it ain't so, Stew.

Stew is too smart to let his son become a Cubs fan.

Stew's son is 94 years old and can do whatever he wants.

[CBStew]

My second oldest son is a Giants' fan, and definitely not a Cub fan.  When Barry Bonds was an active player and an admitted steroid user, I gave my son a heavy ration of "he's a cheater" lectures.  My son now suggests that Arrieta's recent history suggests that there may be some chemical assistance in his conditioning program.  Say it ain't so, Jake

And you just let that happen? Say it ain't so, Stew.

Stew is too smart to let his son become a Cubs fan.

Stew's son is 94 years old and can do whatever he wants.

He'll be sorry when I rat him out to his probation officer.

[Shooter]

I suspect that very few big contracts ever prove to be "worth it," in the sense that most players get hurt and see diminished returns. However, I can't imagine the Cubs without Arrieta and I'd be devastated if he leaves. When they extend him, they will still have control of many of their key players for 3-4 years, which means that they could be a world-shaking team at below market value for a while. In other words, I think they will have money to spare, and they should be able to absorb the cost if Arrieta declines.

Yeah it seems like they could hopefully work their way around the length by front-loading the ever loving crap out of it. Give him most of the money the next couple of years before Bryant and Co. even hit arbitration.

I honestly don't understand why more contracts aren't front-loaded. It seems common practice in baseball to back-load everything, but if you're going to sign an epic contract, wouldn't you rather pay the guy most of his money while he's actually still worth it?

From a (pushes glasses up on nose, adjusts abacus) present value point of view, $20 M in year 1 and $10 M in year 6 is worth more to the player than $15 M in year 1 and $15 M in year 6. So if the Cubs are willing to sacrifice that value to maintain payroll flexibility in later years, I'm sure Jake and Boras would be all in favor of front loading.

Also, paying him less now allows you to pay other guys more now and build a better team around the highly paid guy.

[Quality Start Machine]

I suspect that very few big contracts ever prove to be "worth it," in the sense that most players get hurt and see diminished returns. However, I can't imagine the Cubs without Arrieta and I'd be devastated if he leaves. When they extend him, they will still have control of many of their key players for 3-4 years, which means that they could be a world-shaking team at below market value for a while. In other words, I think they will have money to spare, and they should be able to absorb the cost if Arrieta declines.

Yeah it seems like they could hopefully work their way around the length by front-loading the ever loving crap out of it. Give him most of the money the next couple of years before Bryant and Co. even hit arbitration.

I honestly don't understand why more contracts aren't front-loaded. It seems common practice in baseball to back-load everything, but if you're going to sign an epic contract, wouldn't you rather pay the guy most of his money while he's actually still worth it?

From a (pushes glasses up on nose, adjusts abacus) present value point of view, $20 M in year 1 and $10 M in year 6 is worth more to the player than $15 M in year 1 and $15 M in year 6. So if the Cubs are willing to sacrifice that value to maintain payroll flexibility in later years, I'm sure Jake and Boras would be all in favor of front loading.

Also, paying him less now allows you to pay other guys more now and build a better team around the highly paid guy.

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense, since they're better off with cheap/old/more moveable Jake when it's time for some of the guys who are currently cheap start hitting the point in their careers when they're looking to cash in.

[Slaky]

The Cardinal media is already talking about why Arrieta could end up in St. Louis. It'd be hilarious if it wasn't so sad (on their part).

[Grandmaster Wang]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

You used to be 27Bstrokesomethingsomething, right?

You should post more.

[Grandmaster Wang]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

You used to be 27Bstrokesomethingsomething, right?

You should post more.

Thank you, sir. I've been trying. It is a wonderful time to be alive.

[flannj]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

It took me a minute then I chortled.

[PenFoe]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

You used to be 27Bstrokesomethingsomething, right?

You should post more.

6 is what I believe you're looking for. 

6.

[ChuckD]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

You used to be 27Bstrokesomethingsomething, right?

You should post more.

6 is what I believe you're looking for. 

6.

I'm not sure which would be more surprising.

• Huey hasn't seen Brazil
• Huey has seen Brazil but forgot "27b/6."

[Oleg]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

You used to be 27Bstrokesomethingsomething, right?

You should post more.

6 is what I believe you're looking for. 

6.

I'm not sure which would be more surprising.

• Huey hasn't seen Brazil
• Huey has seen Brazil but forgot "27b/6."

I have only seen Brazil in bits and pieces so it's not surprising I didn't put 2 and 2 together.  It also explains where this URL comes from.

Thanks, CD!