Jake Arrieta 2017 Salary Drive Sploogefest

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

You used to be 27Bstrokesomethingsomething, right?

You should post more.

6 is what I believe you're looking for. 

6.

I'm not sure which would be more surprising.

• Huey hasn't seen Brazil
• Huey has seen Brazil but forgot "27b/6."

I have not seen Brazil.

[ChuckD]

For the Cubs, a front load makes more sense

Also, for Catholics.

You used to be 27Bstrokesomethingsomething, right?

You should post more.

6 is what I believe you're looking for. 

6.

I'm not sure which would be more surprising.

• Huey hasn't seen Brazil
• Huey has seen Brazil but forgot "27b/6."

I have not seen Brazil.

You're right. The second thing would've been more surprising.

[Shooter]

He's walked four guys in a game five times this year. Last year, he only walked more than three in a game once (six vs. the Indians). 2016 walk rate: 8.8% (ML average: 7.6%), 2015 walk rate: 5.3% (ML average: 7.1%).

Should I start worrying?

[Eli]

He's walked four guys in a game five times this year. Last year, he only walked more than three in a game once (six vs. the Indians). 2016 walk rate: 8.8% (ML average: 7.6%), 2015 walk rate: 5.3% (ML average: 7.1%).

Should I start worrying?

His stuff is so good that he's getting away with it. And most of his other peripherals are a tick better than last year (K rate, ground ball rate, soft contact rate). But the prospect of him racking up 85 pitches through 4 innings of a playoff start isn't something anyone wants to see, so sure; I think you can worry a tiny bit.

[Slaky]

He's walked four guys in a game five times this year. Last year, he only walked more than three in a game once (six vs. the Indians). 2016 walk rate: 8.8% (ML average: 7.6%), 2015 walk rate: 5.3% (ML average: 7.1%).

Should I start worrying?

His stuff is so good that he's getting away with it. And most of his other peripherals are a tick better than last year (K rate, ground ball rate, soft contact rate). But the prospect of him racking up 85 pitches through 4 innings of a playoff start isn't something anyone wants to see, so sure; I think you can worry a tiny bit.

Yeah, I was at an outing yesterday and when I first saw the score at 7-0 in the 7th I figured Arrieta must have pitched terribly. Turns out he was fine but couldn't stay in the game long enough to keep the Cubs in it. The pitch count stuff is a concern for sure.

[SKO]

For what it's worth, on June 16th last year Jake had a 3.40 ERA and a walk rate of 6.3%. Then from that point to the end of the year he had a 0.86 ERA and a 5% walk rate. Not saying he'll do that again, his second half last year would be almost impossible to repeat even for him, and 8.8% is quite a bit worse than 6.3%, but there is precedent for him cutting down the walks and going from merely "pretty good" to "untouchable God" mid-season, at least. I mean this year he's still mostly been "untouchable God", the walks have just made him a 5-6 inning god instead of a 7-9 inning god.

[thehawk]

For what it's worth, on June 16th last year Jake had a 3.40 ERA and a walk rate of 6.3%. Then from that point to the end of the year he had a 0.86 ERA and a 5% walk rate. Not saying he'll do that again, his second half last year would be almost impossible to repeat even for him, and 8.8% is quite a bit worse than 6.3%, but there is precedent for him cutting down the walks and going from merely "pretty good" to "untouchable God" mid-season, at least. I mean this year he's still mostly been "untouchable God", the walks have just made him a 5-6 inning god instead of a 7-9 inning god.

It strikes me (with no research whatsoever to back it up) that batters are waiting Jake out a bit to run up his pitch count, figuring the best way to beat him is to get him out of the game.  I saw something about him making an adjustment, I wonder if that may be pitching more to contact.  May cause his ERA to rise a bit, but probably the necessary next step to get him back to going deeper into games.

[Grandmaster Wang]

For what it's worth, on June 16th last year Jake had a 3.40 ERA and a walk rate of 6.3%. Then from that point to the end of the year he had a 0.86 ERA and a 5% walk rate. Not saying he'll do that again, his second half last year would be almost impossible to repeat even for him, and 8.8% is quite a bit worse than 6.3%, but there is precedent for him cutting down the walks and going from merely "pretty good" to "untouchable God" mid-season, at least. I mean this year he's still mostly been "untouchable God", the walks have just made him a 5-6 inning god instead of a 7-9 inning god.

It strikes me (with no research whatsoever to back it up) that batters are waiting Jake out a bit to run up his pitch count, figuring the best way to beat him is to get him out of the game.  I saw something about him making an adjustment, I wonder if that may be pitching more to contact.  May cause his ERA to rise a bit, but probably the necessary next step to get him back to going deeper into games.

Yep. I think that's kinda becoming "the book" on Jake. Just wait him out and let him rack up 40 pitches through 2, or something along those lines, and you're on the right track. And I still maintain that's largely because Jake continues to get squeezed early. And just for the record (again) I don't think it's deliberate, or that there's some kind of conspiracy. Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue how to explain it. My best guess at this point is that it's because of all that late movement. It's as confusing for home plate umpires as it is for batters. But hell if I know. All I know is that in my opinion, he just isn't getting those "benefit of the doubt" calls that historically (or at least so goes the legend) pitchers with a reputation for outstanding command tend to get when they paint the corners. Jake just doesn't get them, at least not early in games. And I think opposing batters are beginning to realize it, and so the strategy is to just wait it out. I wonder if it might also have something to do with Miggy's supposed pitch-framing prowess. Something along the lines of the home plate umpire sees Miggy easing the mitt back towards the middle of the plate, and the assumption is that he's selling a pitch that was off the plate, when it really did catch black, and if Miggy would just sit still rather than working it, they might get more of those calls.

[SKO]

For what it's worth, on June 16th last year Jake had a 3.40 ERA and a walk rate of 6.3%. Then from that point to the end of the year he had a 0.86 ERA and a 5% walk rate. Not saying he'll do that again, his second half last year would be almost impossible to repeat even for him, and 8.8% is quite a bit worse than 6.3%, but there is precedent for him cutting down the walks and going from merely "pretty good" to "untouchable God" mid-season, at least. I mean this year he's still mostly been "untouchable God", the walks have just made him a 5-6 inning god instead of a 7-9 inning god.

It strikes me (with no research whatsoever to back it up) that batters are waiting Jake out a bit to run up his pitch count, figuring the best way to beat him is to get him out of the game.  I saw something about him making an adjustment, I wonder if that may be pitching more to contact.  May cause his ERA to rise a bit, but probably the necessary next step to get him back to going deeper into games.

Yep. I think that's kinda becoming "the book" on Jake. Just wait him out and let him rack up 40 pitches through 2, or something along those lines, and you're on the right track. And I still maintain that's largely because Jake continues to get squeezed early. And just for the record (again) I don't think it's deliberate, or that there's some kind of conspiracy. Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue how to explain it. My best guess at this point is that it's because of all that late movement. It's as confusing for home plate umpires as it is for batters. But hell if I know. All I know is that in my opinion, he just isn't getting those "benefit of the doubt" calls that historically (or at least so goes the legend) pitchers with a reputation for outstanding command tend to get when they paint the corners. Jake just doesn't get them, at least not early in games. And I think opposing batters are beginning to realize it, and so the strategy is to just wait it out. I wonder if it might also have something to do with Miggy's supposed pitch-framing prowess. Something along the lines of the home plate umpire sees Miggy easing the mitt back towards the middle of the plate, and the assumption is that he's selling a pitch that was off the plate, when it really did catch black, and if Miggy would just sit still rather than working it, they might get more of those calls.

I don't know if I've felt he's gotten squeezed as often as you have, but yesterday I definitely felt Wacha got some strikes that Jake didn't.

Brooks baseball would seem to agree Wacha got a slightly wider zone than Jake did:

[SKO]

Okay I'm worried

[SKO]

Still very goddamn worried

[Canadouche]

Still very goddamn worried

He'll figure it out. I'm sure it's a mechanical issue. Or maybe he needs a pair of "wild thing" glasses when he pitches.

[Tonker]

Still very goddamn worried

He'll figure it out. I'm sure it's a mechanical issue. Or maybe he needs a pair of "wild thing" glasses when he pitches.

Fantastic.  Everybody's a scout.

[SKO]

Still very goddamn worried

Panicking. Full blown fucking panic

[CubFaninHydePark]

Widespread Panic...