Jake Arrieta 2017 Salary Drive Sploogefest

[Saul Goodman]

Intrepid Reader: Homer Simpson

This is going great.

[Quality Start Machine]

2015 pitch velocity: 94.4
2017 pitch velocity: 91.7

cha-ching.

[Quality Start Machine]

I'd love to hear the voices in Scott Boras' head right about now.

[Chuck to Chuck]

I'd love to hear the voices in Scott Boras' head right about now.

"Kris Bryant... Kris Bryant... Kris Bryant."

[Oleg]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

[SKO]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

On the one hand he keeps under-performing his peripherals, because his K-BB numbers and stuff are still good, he's getting swinging strikes...it seems like EVERY mistake gets hammered though. His HR/FB rate seems unsustainably poor but, shit, if he's throwing 91 MPH down the middle because he hasn't learned how to pitch with diminished stuff is it really unsustainable?

[Quality Start Machine]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

Yesterday on Twitter, Nick Shepkowski said that if the Cubs sent Jake to TB for Archer, TB would have to throw in two prospects because Jake won a Cy Young.

I'm always amazed that people like this exist.

[Oleg]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

On the one hand he keeps under-performing his peripherals, because his K-BB numbers and stuff are still good, he's getting swinging strikes...it seems like EVERY mistake gets hammered though. His HR/FB rate seems unsustainably poor but, shit, if he's throwing 91 MPH down the middle because he hasn't learned how to pitch with diminished stuff is it really unsustainable?

Conventional wisdom was always to take something off a fastball to make it move.  Is it possible that with Jake it's the opposite?

Either way, 91MPH is getting hit but he's not walking anyone.  97MPH was not getting hit but he was walking the world.  I haven't looked at his HR rate nor at his HR/FB% or any of his peripherals.  But that fucking velo is it, man.  He has no margin for error.

[SKO]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

On the one hand he keeps under-performing his peripherals, because his K-BB numbers and stuff are still good, he's getting swinging strikes...it seems like EVERY mistake gets hammered though. His HR/FB rate seems unsustainably poor but, shit, if he's throwing 91 MPH down the middle because he hasn't learned how to pitch with diminished stuff is it really unsustainable?

Conventional wisdom was always to take something off a fastball to make it move.  Is it possible that with Jake it's the opposite?

Either way, 91MPH is getting hit but he's not walking anyone.  97MPH was not getting hit but he was walking the world.  I haven't looked at his HR rate nor at his HR/FB% or any of his peripherals.  But that fucking velo is it, man.  He has no margin for error.

The problem with his 91 mph fastball seems to be that the slider can't fool anyone anymore. When he was throwing a 95 mph fastball with an 89/90 mph slider/cutter that looked like a fastball there's no way to hit that. Now he's throwing 91 and the slider/cutter is at 84/85 and people can wait for it and crush it.

[Quality Start Machine]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

On the one hand he keeps under-performing his peripherals, because his K-BB numbers and stuff are still good, he's getting swinging strikes...it seems like EVERY mistake gets hammered though. His HR/FB rate seems unsustainably poor but, shit, if he's throwing 91 MPH down the middle because he hasn't learned how to pitch with diminished stuff is it really unsustainable?

Conventional wisdom was always to take something off a fastball to make it move.  Is it possible that with Jake it's the opposite?

Either way, 91MPH is getting hit but he's not walking anyone.  97MPH was not getting hit but he was walking the world.  I haven't looked at his HR rate nor at his HR/FB% or any of his peripherals.  But that fucking velo is it, man.  He has no margin for error.

The problem with his 91 mph fastball seems to be that the slider can't fool anyone anymore. When he was throwing a 95 mph fastball with an 89/90 mph slider/cutter that looked like a fastball there's no way to hit that. Now he's throwing 91 and the slider/cutter is at 84/85 and people can wait for it and crush it.

Plus, whatever mechanical glitch that is costing him velocity could be costing his breaking balls some significant bite. Is his spin rate down as drasticlly as his velocity?

[Canadouche]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

On the one hand he keeps under-performing his peripherals, because his K-BB numbers and stuff are still good, he's getting swinging strikes...it seems like EVERY mistake gets hammered though. His HR/FB rate seems unsustainably poor but, shit, if he's throwing 91 MPH down the middle because he hasn't learned how to pitch with diminished stuff is it really unsustainable?

Conventional wisdom was always to take something off a fastball to make it move.  Is it possible that with Jake it's the opposite?

Either way, 91MPH is getting hit but he's not walking anyone.  97MPH was not getting hit but he was walking the world.  I haven't looked at his HR rate nor at his HR/FB% or any of his peripherals.  But that fucking velo is it, man.  He has no margin for error.

The problem with his 91 mph fastball seems to be that the slider can't fool anyone anymore. When he was throwing a 95 mph fastball with an 89/90 mph slider/cutter that looked like a fastball there's no way to hit that. Now he's throwing 91 and the slider/cutter is at 84/85 and people can wait for it and crush it.

Plus, whatever mechanical glitch that is costing him velocity could be costing his breaking balls some significant bite. Is his spin rate down as drasticlly as his velocity?

Is it a mechanical glitch, or is it dead arm?

[Quality Start Machine]

I don't give a shit about what's going on in Boras's head but I would like to have the 97 MPH fastball back from Jake.

I'm officially worried.

On the one hand he keeps under-performing his peripherals, because his K-BB numbers and stuff are still good, he's getting swinging strikes...it seems like EVERY mistake gets hammered though. His HR/FB rate seems unsustainably poor but, shit, if he's throwing 91 MPH down the middle because he hasn't learned how to pitch with diminished stuff is it really unsustainable?

Conventional wisdom was always to take something off a fastball to make it move.  Is it possible that with Jake it's the opposite?

Either way, 91MPH is getting hit but he's not walking anyone.  97MPH was not getting hit but he was walking the world.  I haven't looked at his HR rate nor at his HR/FB% or any of his peripherals.  But that fucking velo is it, man.  He has no margin for error.

The problem with his 91 mph fastball seems to be that the slider can't fool anyone anymore. When he was throwing a 95 mph fastball with an 89/90 mph slider/cutter that looked like a fastball there's no way to hit that. Now he's throwing 91 and the slider/cutter is at 84/85 and people can wait for it and crush it.

Plus, whatever mechanical glitch that is costing him velocity could be costing his breaking balls some significant bite. Is his spin rate down as drasticlly as his velocity?

Is it a mechanical glitch, or is it dead arm?

His arm isn't dead, it's pregnant with home runs.

[Shooter]

Interesting analysis of Jake from Fangraphs.

[CBStew]

Interesting analysis of Jake from Fangraphs.

Donald Trump took credit for inventing the term "prime the pump".   I take credit for inventing the term "whistling in the dark."   That is how I describe the Fangraphs article that makes light of Arrieta's 2017 season performance so far.

[SKO]

This thread's looking less stupid.