2014 WORLD CUP - SOCCER IS GHEY PART DOIS.

[Tonker]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Given the U.S. draw this is going to be a short lived thread.

FYF!

[PenFoe]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

[PenFoe]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

Fucking soccer, man. 

How does it even work?

[Tonker]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

The USMNT has never had to settle a World Cup match with penalties, has it?  Because that's absolute fucking TORTURE.

[PenFoe]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

The USMNT has never had to settle a World Cup match with penalties, has it?  Because that's absolute fucking TORTURE.

I remember watching a World Cup final game back around high school ('94?) where the good Italian guy shot it right over the goal in penalty kicks against the Brazilians to lose it.

Seemed heartbreaking.

[ChuckD]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

The USMNT has never had to settle a World Cup match with penalties, has it?  Because that's absolute fucking TORTURE.

Wouldn't that be a comparatively advantageous situation for the US because they have a good goalkeeper?

[Tonker]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

The USMNT has never had to settle a World Cup match with penalties, has it?  Because that's absolute fucking TORTURE.

Wouldn't that be a comparatively advantageous situation for the US because they have a good goalkeeper?

You'd have thought, right?  Except with penalties, all bets are off because it has nothing to do with talent any more, and everything to do with not shitting your pants, and sheer, dumb fucking luck.  You think a five-game post-season series is a crapshoot?  You ain't seen nothing yet.  Besides, pretty much every side has a good keeper (with the possible exception of Russia, whose keeper had a fucking 'mare over the last three games), or they didn't get to the World Cup finals.

[PenFoe]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

The USMNT has never had to settle a World Cup match with penalties, has it?  Because that's absolute fucking TORTURE.

Wouldn't that be a comparatively advantageous situation for the US because they have a good goalkeeper?

You'd have thought, right?  Except with penalties, all bets are off because it has nothing to do with talent any more, and everything to do with not shitting your pants, and sheer, dumb fucking luck.  You think a five-game post-season series is a crapshoot?  You ain't seen nothing yet.  Besides, pretty much every side has a good keeper (with the possible exception of Russia, whose keeper had a fucking 'mare over the last three games), or they didn't get to the World Cup finals.

Maybe it was the defense, but I thought Spain's goalie was pretty shit.

[Tonker]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

The USMNT has never had to settle a World Cup match with penalties, has it?  Because that's absolute fucking TORTURE.

Wouldn't that be a comparatively advantageous situation for the US because they have a good goalkeeper?

You'd have thought, right?  Except with penalties, all bets are off because it has nothing to do with talent any more, and everything to do with not shitting your pants, and sheer, dumb fucking luck.  You think a five-game post-season series is a crapshoot?  You ain't seen nothing yet.  Besides, pretty much every side has a good keeper (with the possible exception of Russia, whose keeper had a fucking 'mare over the last three games), or they didn't get to the World Cup finals.

Maybe it was the defense, but I thought Spain's goalie was pretty shit.

That's absolutely fair: Casillas had a fucking shocker.  I'd forgotten about that.

[PenFoe]

I think the US have a decent chance against Belgium.  They have very little chance against Argentina, should they get that far - unless Messi gets hurt, or suspended, or something, in the meantime.

I like Holland's path to the semis (Mexico/winner of Costa Rica/Greece), and am already semi-erect at the thought of a France-Germany QF next week.  I'm assuming the remaining African teams are going to African themselves a plane ticket home in the meantime.

Assuming Germany beats France, does the Brazil-Germany semifinal do anything for you? I guess this assumes Brazil gets by Chile and then Uruguay or Colombia.

I actually think that Brazil have possibly the hardest run to the Maracanã: Chile, Colombia, and France or Germany.  They could lose any of those.  If they get to the final, they'll have earned it, and it probably won't matter who makes it from the other side of the draw, they're destined to be runners-up...

I'm waiting for TJ to give us the optimism path that shows the U.S. beating Algeria in the finals.

It should involve a lot of ties and winning-by-losing.

The USMNT has never had to settle a World Cup match with penalties, has it?  Because that's absolute fucking TORTURE.

Wouldn't that be a comparatively advantageous situation for the US because they have a good goalkeeper?

You'd have thought, right?  Except with penalties, all bets are off because it has nothing to do with talent any more, and everything to do with not shitting your pants, and sheer, dumb fucking luck.  You think a five-game post-season series is a crapshoot?  You ain't seen nothing yet.  Besides, pretty much every side has a good keeper (with the possible exception of Russia, whose keeper had a fucking 'mare over the last three games), or they didn't get to the World Cup finals.

Some soccer statfaggery to support this.

The percentage success rate in the World Cup is 71.2% compared to 82.7% (CA) and 84.6% (EC), possibly reflecting the greater importance and consequent pressure of the world stage. The success rate of each penalty kick changes throughout the competition:

   First kick 86.6%

   Second kick 81.7%

   Third kick 79.3%

   Fourth kick 72.5%

   Fifth kick 80%

   'Sudden death' kicks 64.3%

These results highlight the increasing pressure as the competition progresses and may also highlight the 'best player should go first' fallacy. The idea of 'getting off to a good start' by putting the best penalty taker first appears wrong as there is least pressure on this kick.

[flannj]

Given the U.S. draw this is going to be a short lived thread.

FYF!

I'm more than happy to get fucked in this case.

[Slaky]

There's a book called Soccernomics that gets into the game theory behind penalties and it's very very interesting.

[PenFoe]

There's a book called Soccernomics that gets into the game theory behind penalties and it's very very interesting.

Since we're never gonna read it, do you have any insight you could share?