Javier Baez 2014 ROY-MVP-World Series MVP Thread

[R-V]

Pretty interesting statfhaggery from Fangraphs on how pitchers already have a solid scouting report on Baez and they're not giving him anything to hit.

Or, as noted in the comments (with an unnecessary swipe at Javy's intelligence), they see his minor league K rates and figure they don't need to give him anything to hit - that he'll get himself out swinging at bad pitches. Part of his adjustment will be showing that he can lay off those pitches.

[Quality Start Machine]

Pretty interesting statfhaggery from Fangraphs on how pitchers already have a solid scouting report on Baez and they're not giving him anything to hit.

Or, as noted in the comments (with an unnecessary swipe at Javy's intelligence), they see his minor league K rates and figure they don't need to give him anything to hit - that he'll get himself out swinging at bad pitches. Part of his adjustment will be showing that he can lay off those pitches.

Part of the adjustment will also be as the talent at the big-league level improves, Baez will get more ABs with runners on base - particularly 1st. This will mean more fastballs in/near the strike zone (to prevent stealing) and more balls being sent to far-away places.

[SKO]

Pretty interesting statfhaggery from Fangraphs on how pitchers already have a solid scouting report on Baez and they're not giving him anything to hit.

Or, as noted in the comments (with an unnecessary swipe at Javy's intelligence), they see his minor league K rates and figure they don't need to give him anything to hit - that he'll get himself out swinging at bad pitches. Part of his adjustment will be showing that he can lay off those pitches.

Yeah that guy more or less says "I have my doubts he's that smart because he sounds like a guy who can barely speak english". Because he's, y'know, not a native english speaker, moran.

[Eli]

Part of the adjustment will also be as the talent at the big-league level improves, Baez will get more ABs with runners on base - particularly 1st. This will mean more fastballs in/near the strike zone (to prevent stealing) and more balls being sent to far-away places.

I don't have the time to look it up, but this just seems like something that isn't really statistically true.

[SKO]

Part of the adjustment will also be as the talent at the big-league level improves, Baez will get more ABs with runners on base - particularly 1st. This will mean more fastballs in/near the strike zone (to prevent stealing) and more balls being sent to far-away places.

I don't have the time to look it up, but this just seems like something that isn't really statistically true.

Kinda sounds like the "protection in the lineup" myth, which has been pretty heavily debunked at this point, no?

[PenFoe]

Part of the adjustment will also be as the talent at the big-league level improves, Baez will get more ABs with runners on base - particularly 1st. This will mean more fastballs in/near the strike zone (to prevent stealing) and more balls being sent to far-away places.

I don't have the time to look it up, but this just seems like something that isn't really statistically true.

Also, pretty sure the Cubs don't have any prospects that actually steal bases.

[Quality Start Machine]

Part of the adjustment will also be as the talent at the big-league level improves, Baez will get more ABs with runners on base - particularly 1st. This will mean more fastballs in/near the strike zone (to prevent stealing) and more balls being sent to far-away places.

I don't have the time to look it up, but this just seems like something that isn't really statistically true.

His splits (38 PAs with bases empty vs. 24 PAs with men on - small sample size, I know.) show better numbers (a 63 point spread in OPS) with men on.

[InternetApex]

Part of the adjustment will also be as the talent at the big-league level improves, Baez will get more ABs with runners on base - particularly 1st. This will mean more fastballs in/near the strike zone (to prevent stealing) and more balls being sent to far-away places.

I don't have the time to look it up, but this just seems like something that isn't really statistically true.

His splits (38 PAs with bases empty vs. 24 PAs with men on - small sample size, I know.) show better numbers (a 63 point spread in OPS) with men on.

Also, he's blind. Remember? That should improve too with science.

[SKO]

Why do we need to spend so many words saying something that's so obvious? Javy should learn to lay off bad pitches. If he does, he will be unstoppable.

[SKO]

Is there a stat person here who can give me a comp for a player who started with such a high K rate and settled down? I mean I know Baez has settled down himself just about every level he's been with after a while but is there any actual precedent for thinking a guy like this can ever actually develop true patience?

[InternetApex]

Is there a stat person here who can give me a comp for a player who started with such a high K rate and settled down? I mean I know Baez has settled down himself just about every level he's been with after a while but is there any actual precedent for thinking a guy like this can ever actually develop true patience?

It might be more productive to search for players who K'd 150+ while putting up over 1.000 OPS. Sammy did that four times. It was the Nintendo era but still.

[Eli]

Is there a stat person here who can give me a comp for a player who started with such a high K rate and settled down? I mean I know Baez has settled down himself just about every level he's been with after a while but is there any actual precedent for thinking a guy like this can ever actually develop true patience?

Stanton is probably the gold standard of hope for guys who struck out a ton and are now awesome while striking out a little-less-ton.

[SKO]

Is there a stat person here who can give me a comp for a player who started with such a high K rate and settled down? I mean I know Baez has settled down himself just about every level he's been with after a while but is there any actual precedent for thinking a guy like this can ever actually develop true patience?

Stanton is probably the gold standard of hope for guys who struck out a ton and are now awesome while striking out a little-less-ton.

Yeah. I think Javy (and Bryant too) are going to be hard to project based on what guys have done in the past because players just K more now than they ever had. I wonder if part of that is sabermetric-based organizations that put less emphasis on avoiding Ks because they're just outs, and it's more important to see a lot of pitches and try to make good at bats than swinging and something you can pop up just to "put the ball in play"

[Eli]

Also, I found research on fastballs with runners at first and You'll Never Believe the Conclusion: http://www.billjamesonline.com/stats72/

[InternetApex]

Also, I found research on fastballs with runners at first and You'll Never Believe the Conclusion: http://www.billjamesonline.com/stats72/

I guess Fork doesn't need to do the Ice Bucket Challenge now.