MIKE OLT!

[Powdered Toast Man]

Can we talk about Olt's batted ball numbers, Mac? I've been dying to talk about Olt's batted ball numbers with you all day.

Namely, that it's a story of extremes...

      BABIP  GB/FB   LD%    GB%    FB%   IFFB%  HR/FB  IFH%  BUH%
Olt   .167   0.72   10.1%  37.7%  52.2%  13.9%  25.0%  3.8%  0.0%
MLB   .298   1.33   20.2%  45.6%  34.2%   9.7%  10.1%  6.3% 27.6%

Among batters with 100+ PA in 2014, Olt ranks 5th in the majors in FB%, 8th in HR/FB and 2nd to last in both BABIP and LD%.

For starters, a 25% HR/FB ratio is pretty ridiculous. That's Barry Bonds territory (25.1% career).

MLB leaders in HR/FB the past five seasons:

2013: Chris Davis 29.6%
2012: Adam Dunn 29.3%
2011: Giancarlo Stanton 24.8%
2010: Joey Votto 25.0%
2009: Mark Reynolds 26.0%

And an FB rate north of 50% is exceptionally high, too. Season leaders:

2013: Brandon Moss 51.8%
2012: Mike Moustakas 49.8%
2011: Alfonso Soriano 51.1%
2010: Aramis Ramirez 56.8%
2009: Carlos Pena 54.1%

Put those together and, by the time Olt puts a ball into play, he's more than 13% of the way toward hitting it out of the park already. That is absolutely staggering. (And no doubt due for regression.)

At the same time, a line drive rate of 10.1% is retarded low. Olt's squared up just 7 total line drives on the season.

For context, the worst full-season LD rates from the past five years:

2013: Dan Uggla 13.2%
2012: Drew Stubbs 14.9%
2011: Vernon Wells 12.3%
2010: Aaron Hill 10.6%
2009: Hunter Pence 14.6%

And, given that, as LD% goes, largely so does BABIP, it stands to reason that his BABIP would be really low, too. And it is. But it's even lower than might be expected from his raw batted ball numbers if this formula is anything to go by:

xBABIP = 0.392 + (LD% x 0.287709436) + ((GB% – (GB% * IFH%)) x -0.152 ) + ((FB% – (FB% x HR/FB%) – (FB% x IFFB%)) x -0.188) + ((IFFB% * FB%) x -0.835) + ((IFH% * GB%) x 0.500)

Assuming all my Excel jiggerdypoop is in order, I have Olt at an xBABIP of .253 (versus .167 actual).

Surely Olt's LD rate is ready to regress as well. This time upwards. (Particularly insofar as his retarded high HR rate suggests that his lack of liners doesn't speak to a fundamental power deficit.)

So... Lucky in jimmies, unlucky in love and liners. What's the upshot?

He's hit 26 ground balls, 36 fly balls and 7 line drives this season. Had he put the same number of balls into play but at the league average rates for each batted ball type, he'd instead have 31.5 ground balls, 23.6 fly balls and 13.9 line drives.

Had those 23.6 fly balls left the park at the league average rate instead of his Bonds- or Stanton-esque clip, he'd have just 2.4 homers (versus his team-leading 9).

All else being equal, this would be good for an xBABIP of .312 and, in turn, a batting average of .217 and OBP of .293 (versus .183/.263 actual).

Conclusion? Hell if I know. I'm just some nerd with a laptop.

This is kinda where statfaggotry leaves me on the outside looking in. I embrace it, I want to love it, but it makes me think hard. Brain hurt.

So, this is saying Mike Olt's numbers are X, but we can hypothesize and formulate what might be had he performed at the MLB averages for these measurables?

You are a nerd with a laptop, but I applaud you going through all these numbers and explaining them so I can almost grasp the concept.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

So, this is saying Mike Olt's numbers are X, but we can hypothesize and formulate what might be had he performed at the MLB averages for these measurables?

Basically. With a strong emphasis on "hypothesize".

The main point is that both the high rate at which Olt's been hitting fly balls and home runs and the low rate at which he's been hitting line drives look pretty extreme, are probably due in part to some good/bad luck and are unlikely to continue going forward.

It's probably unreasonable to say that this number crunching reveals what Olt "would have" or "should have" actually done without that good/bad luck. But I hope it does help illustrate the impact of that luck on the numbers that matter (i.e., OBP, jimmies) by putting it in the context of the league average.

[Powdered Toast Man]

So, this is saying Mike Olt's numbers are X, but we can hypothesize and formulate what might be had he performed at the MLB averages for these measurables?

Basically. With a strong emphasis on "hypothesize".

The main point is that both the high rate at which Olt's been hitting fly balls and home runs and the low rate at which he's been hitting line drives look pretty extreme, are probably due in part to some good/bad luck and are unlikely to continue going forward.

It's probably unreasonable to say that this number crunching reveals what Olt "would have" or "should have" actually done without that good/bad luck. But I hope it does help illustrate the impact of that luck on the numbers that matter (i.e., OBP, jimmies) by putting it in the context of the league average.

Since you know better than I do, what do his minor league numbers say in regards to FB%/LD%/BABIP etc.?

[J. Walter Weatherman]

So, this is saying Mike Olt's numbers are X, but we can hypothesize and formulate what might be had he performed at the MLB averages for these measurables?

Basically. With a strong emphasis on "hypothesize".

The main point is that both the high rate at which Olt's been hitting fly balls and home runs and the low rate at which he's been hitting line drives look pretty extreme, are probably due in part to some good/bad luck and are unlikely to continue going forward.

It's probably unreasonable to say that this number crunching reveals what Olt "would have" or "should have" actually done without that good/bad luck. But I hope it does help illustrate the impact of that luck on the numbers that matter (i.e., OBP, jimmies) by putting it in the context of the league average.

Since you know better than I do, what do his minor league numbers say in regards to FB%/LD%/BABIP etc.?

As far as I'm aware, FB/LD/GB numbers aren't available from the minors.

His career minor league BABIP is .303, which seems just about perfectly average.

[PenFoe]

So, at what point does this guy get sent back down to Iowa? 

I don't understand how the Cubs take a modest approach with guys like Baez and Bryant and make sure they're properly seasoned in the minors and then take Olt, who has never been anything but awful above AA and determine he's ready. I know things like service time and future contracts play into this, which aren't really in play with Olt, but I don't understand at all what they're doing with him. 

Maybe they're just trying to see what they've got here, or maybe they just don't want to add yet another struggling 3B prospect to the minors, but for a guy who's still relatively young (25) it sure seems like there's a better place for him to be than playing on the major league roster. 

[CBStew]

So, at what point does this guy get sent back down to Iowa? 

I don't understand how the Cubs take a modest approach with guys like Baez and Bryant and make sure they're properly seasoned in the minors and then take Olt, who has never been anything but awful above AA and determine he's ready. I know things like service time and future contracts play into this, which aren't really in play with Olt, but I don't understand at all what they're doing with him. 

Maybe they're just trying to see what they've got here, or maybe they just don't want to add yet another struggling 3B prospect to the minors, but for a guy who's still relatively young (25) it sure seems like there's a better place for him to be than playing on the major league roster. 

Qvetch!

[InternetApex]

So, at what point does this guy get sent back down to Iowa? 

I don't understand how the Cubs take a modest approach with guys like Baez and Bryant and make sure they're properly seasoned in the minors and then take Olt, who has never been anything but awful above AA and determine he's ready. I know things like service time and future contracts play into this, which aren't really in play with Olt, but I don't understand at all what they're doing with him. 

Maybe they're just trying to see what they've got here, or maybe they just don't want to add yet another struggling 3B prospect to the minors, but for a guy who's still relatively young (25) it sure seems like there's a better place for him to be than playing on the major league roster. 

It's almost as if they WANT to lose games.

[PenFoe]

So, at what point does this guy get sent back down to Iowa? 

I don't understand how the Cubs take a modest approach with guys like Baez and Bryant and make sure they're properly seasoned in the minors and then take Olt, who has never been anything but awful above AA and determine he's ready. I know things like service time and future contracts play into this, which aren't really in play with Olt, but I don't understand at all what they're doing with him. 

Maybe they're just trying to see what they've got here, or maybe they just don't want to add yet another struggling 3B prospect to the minors, but for a guy who's still relatively young (25) it sure seems like there's a better place for him to be than playing on the major league roster. 

It's almost as if they WANT to lose games.

They can lose games with any of the dudes on their roster playing 3B every day.

If Olt is at all part of the long term plans, it seems like a disservice to have him out there when he's clearly over matched.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

So, at what point does this guy get sent back down to Iowa? 

I don't understand how the Cubs take a modest approach with guys like Baez and Bryant and make sure they're properly seasoned in the minors and then take Olt, who has never been anything but awful above AA and determine he's ready. I know things like service time and future contracts play into this, which aren't really in play with Olt, but I don't understand at all what they're doing with him. 

Maybe they're just trying to see what they've got here, or maybe they just don't want to add yet another struggling 3B prospect to the minors, but for a guy who's still relatively young (25) it sure seems like there's a better place for him to be than playing on the major league roster. 

It's almost as if they WANT to lose games.

They can lose games with any of the dudes on their roster playing 3B every day.

If Olt is at all part of the long term plans, it seems like a disservice to have him out there when he's clearly over matched.

If there's a Christian Villanueva–sized logjam awaiting Bryant at 3B in Iowa now, what happens if Olt is sent there, too?

[PenFoe]

So, at what point does this guy get sent back down to Iowa?  

I don't understand how the Cubs take a modest approach with guys like Baez and Bryant and make sure they're properly seasoned in the minors and then take Olt, who has never been anything but awful above AA and determine he's ready. I know things like service time and future contracts play into this, which aren't really in play with Olt, but I don't understand at all what they're doing with him.  

Maybe they're just trying to see what they've got here, or maybe they just don't want to add yet another struggling 3B prospect to the minors, but for a guy who's still relatively young (25) it sure seems like there's a better place for him to be than playing on the major league roster.  

It's almost as if they WANT to lose games.

They can lose games with any of the dudes on their roster playing 3B every day.

If Olt is at all part of the long term plans, it seems like a disservice to have him out there when he's clearly over matched.

If there's a Christian Villanueva–sized logjam awaiting Bryant at 3B in Iowa now, what happens if Olt is sent there, too?

Acknowledged that there are TOO MANY THIRD BASEMEN ON THE FIELD.

But, at some point SOMEONE is gonna have to learn how to play OF and not be a slapdick hitter.

[Powdered Toast Man]

So, at what point does this guy get sent back down to Iowa? 

I don't understand how the Cubs take a modest approach with guys like Baez and Bryant and make sure they're properly seasoned in the minors and then take Olt, who has never been anything but awful above AA and determine he's ready. I know things like service time and future contracts play into this, which aren't really in play with Olt, but I don't understand at all what they're doing with him. 

Maybe they're just trying to see what they've got here, or maybe they just don't want to add yet another struggling 3B prospect to the minors, but for a guy who's still relatively young (25) it sure seems like there's a better place for him to be than playing on the major league roster. 

It's almost as if they WANT to lose games.

They can lose games with any of the dudes on their roster playing 3B every day.

If Olt is at all part of the long term plans, it seems like a disservice to have him out there when he's clearly over matched.

If there's a Christian Villanueva–sized logjam awaiting Bryant at 3B in Iowa now, what happens if Olt is sent there, too?

Checking AAA depth chart at first base...



...something called Lars Anderson is the Iowa Cubs lone 1B on the team. The paradox is that Olt and Villanueva are supposed to be slick fielders, but you want to keep Bryant at 3B because something something max value and development.

Someone will have to play OF or 1B. Could one of them get promoted? You don't really demote anyone to AA here, right?

[Powdered Toast Man]

It's time to send Mike Olt to the minors.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

It's time to send Mike Olt to the minors.

Yeah, getting rung up on a called 3rd strike with a runner on 3rd and 1 out against a lefty (albeit a quality one) is a bridge too far for me.  It's bad enough the guy's swung and missed at about 900 pitched balls this year, but not beig aggressive in the strike zone when he absolutely needed to put the ball in play tells me he's guessing now, and he's all messed up (he was also called out on strikes his first time up last night).

Dude needs to go to Des Moines and salvage some confidence.  Besides, Valboner's proving that he should play everyday at 3B for a while anyway so there's no point in leaving Olt and his thimble of confidence rotting on the bench.

[Powdered Toast Man]

It's time to send Mike Olt to the minors.

Yeah, getting rung up on a called 3rd strike with a runner on 3rd and 1 out against a lefty (albeit a quality one) is a bridge too far for me.  It's bad enough the guy's swung and missed at about 900 pitched balls this year, but not beig aggressive in the strike zone when he absolutely needed to put the ball in play tells me he's guessing now, and he's all messed up (he was also called out on strikes his first time up last night).

Dude needs to go to Des Moines and salvage some confidence.  Besides, Valboner's proving that he should play everyday at 3B for a while anyway so there's no point in leaving Olt and his thimble of confidence rotting on the bench.

Welp, all of that.

[Quality Start Machine]

It's time to send Mike Olt to the minors.

Yeah, getting rung up on a called 3rd strike with a runner on 3rd and 1 out against a lefty (albeit a quality one) is a bridge too far for me.  It's bad enough the guy's swung and missed at about 900 pitched balls this year, but not beig aggressive in the strike zone when he absolutely needed to put the ball in play tells me he's guessing now, and he's all messed up (he was also called out on strikes his first time up last night).

Dude needs to go to Des Moines and salvage some confidence.  Besides, Valboner's proving that he should play everyday at 3B for a while anyway so there's no point in leaving Olt and his thimble of confidence rotting on the bench.

Welp, all of that.

thirded. It was fun while it lasted.