MIKE OLT!

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Jesse Rogers recently tweeted that Olt is going to pitcher's counts a lot... near the top of the league in getting behind. Can any of the stat nerds explain why? Does that mean he's being too patient in this new OBP obsessed game?

He does seem to take the first pitch a lot, and the first pitch almost always seems to be a strike.

He needs to start making more contact this homestand.  I've been pulling for him more than anyone, but I might be out of optimism if he doesn't seize this opportunity soon.  If he could bat 5th and force pitchers to throw to Castro and Rizzo (or make 'em pay if they don't), that would make me feel better about the pending future, but right now he's digging his own grave.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Jesse Rogers recently tweeted that Olt is going to pitcher's counts a lot... near the top of the league in getting behind. Can any of the stat nerds explain why? Does that mean he's being too patient in this new OBP obsessed game?

It means he's blind and can't tell the difference between strikes and balls. 

Strange that he'd pick on Olt. Among guys who've seen at least 100 pitches total this year, Lake actually has seen the highest percentage of pitches (65.7%) with the pitcher ahead across the MLB.

Schierholtz 56.4%
Castillo 54.8%
Olt 50.5%
League average 48.2%
Rizzo 42.8%
Kalish 38.2%
Bonifacio 56.7%
Castro 35.7% (5th lowest in MLB)

Here's the tweet in question:

https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/461694298510360577

You want numbers. Here's a reason Olt is struggling. Gone to a pitchers count (0-1,0-2,1-2,2-2) in 56% of PA.League avg is 45%.He's near top

Not as much about singling him out as looking for a stat to help explain his already poor numbers.

My question would be how much noise we should expect in this stat. How repeatable a skill is staying ahead of a pitcher?

[ChuckD]

Jesse Rogers recently tweeted that Olt is going to pitcher's counts a lot... near the top of the league in getting behind. Can any of the stat nerds explain why? Does that mean he's being too patient in this new OBP obsessed game?

It means he's blind and can't tell the difference between strikes and balls. 

Strange that he'd pick on Olt. Among guys who've seen at least 100 pitches total this year, Lake actually has seen the highest percentage of pitches (65.7%) with the pitcher ahead across the MLB.

Schierholtz 56.4%
Castillo 54.8%
Olt 50.5%
League average 48.2%
Rizzo 42.8%
Kalish 38.2%
Bonifacio 56.7%
Castro 35.7% (5th lowest in MLB)

Here's the tweet in question:

https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/461694298510360577

You want numbers. Here's a reason Olt is struggling. Gone to a pitchers count (0-1,0-2,1-2,2-2) in 56% of PA.League avg is 45%.He's near top

Not as much about singling him out as looking for a stat to help explain his already poor numbers.

My question would be how much noise we should expect in this stat. How repeatable a skill is staying ahead of a pitcher?

I don't know how repeatable it is. He's definitely struggled when behind. He's got a wOBA of about .073 when behind (lg avg is .222) with a BABIP of .167 (lg avg is .297).

Probably part bad luck, part noise, part approach.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Probably part bad luck, part noise, part approach.

Probably.

Though knowing the relative contributions of each could go some way towards telling us how worrying this should be going forward.

I mean, like with a batter with a low BABIP, if it's something that should be expected to regress to the mean some, that could actually be good-ish news, right?

[Shooter]

Jesse Rogers recently tweeted that Olt is going to pitcher's counts a lot... near the top of the league in getting behind. Can any of the stat nerds explain why? Does that mean he's being too patient in this new OBP obsessed game?

He does seem to take the first pitch a lot, and the first pitch almost always seems to be a strike.

He needs to start making more contact this homestand.  I've been pulling for him more than anyone, but I might be out of optimism if he doesn't seize this opportunity soon.  If he could bat 5th and force pitchers to throw to Castro and Rizzo (or make 'em pay if they don't), that would make me feel better about the pending future, but right now he's digging his own grave.

It's fewer than 100 ABs in a season that is going nowhere. They should give him lots of rope. You don't want to totally destroy his confidence if he continues to fail, but they're better off giving him enough chances to find out if he can be useful going forward.

[Quality Start Machine]

Jesse Rogers is a fucking idiot.

[InternetApex]

Jesse Rogers recently tweeted that Olt is going to pitcher's counts a lot... near the top of the league in getting behind. Can any of the stat nerds explain why? Does that mean he's being too patient in this new OBP obsessed game?

He does seem to take the first pitch a lot, and the first pitch almost always seems to be a strike.

He needs to start making more contact this homestand.  I've been pulling for him more than anyone, but I might be out of optimism if he doesn't seize this opportunity soon.  If he could bat 5th and force pitchers to throw to Castro and Rizzo (or make 'em pay if they don't), that would make me feel better about the pending future, but right now he's digging his own grave.

It's fewer than 100 ABs in a season that is going nowhere. They should give him lots of rope. You don't want to totally destroy his confidence if he continues to fail, but they're better off giving him enough chances to find out if he can be useful going forward.

THI

[Powdered Toast Man]

Jesse Rogers recently tweeted that Olt is going to pitcher's counts a lot... near the top of the league in getting behind. Can any of the stat nerds explain why? Does that mean he's being too patient in this new OBP obsessed game?

He does seem to take the first pitch a lot, and the first pitch almost always seems to be a strike.

He needs to start making more contact this homestand.  I've been pulling for him more than anyone, but I might be out of optimism if he doesn't seize this opportunity soon.  If he could bat 5th and force pitchers to throw to Castro and Rizzo (or make 'em pay if they don't), that would make me feel better about the pending future, but right now he's digging his own grave.

It's fewer than 100 ABs in a season that is going nowhere. They should give him lots of rope. You don't want to totally destroy his confidence if he continues to fail, but they're better off giving him enough chances to find out if he can be useful going forward.

THIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIS

[thehawk]

MIKE OLT! MIKE OLT! MIKE OLT! MIKE OLT!

[J. Walter Weatherman]

MIKE OLT! MIKE OLT! MIKE OLT! MIKE OLT!

SO MUCH MY COLT.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I'm going to view his at-bat prior to the grand slam as his nadir, and hope to never see those depths again.  The schlub filling in for Chris Sale was on the ropes, and any pitch near the strike zone was getting rocked that inning.  Olt came up with the bases juiced and was ahead 2-0 before popping out.  Christ, even Junior Lake drew a bases loaded walk after that.

But then he came up the next time...

MY COLT! MY COLT! MY COLT!

[Powdered Toast Man]

Just gonna come in here and MY COLT!

[Tony]

OLTIMATE WARRIOR

[J. Walter Weatherman]

I'm going to view his at-bat prior to the grand slam as his nadir, and hope to never see those depths again.  The schlub filling in for Chris Sale was on the ropes, and any pitch near the strike zone was getting rocked that inning.  Olt came up with the bases juiced and was ahead 2-0 before popping out.  Christ, even Junior Lake drew a bases loaded walk after that.

A dude behind me last night dubbed him "Babe Olt", saying he saw him call his shot during that AB.

[R-V]

I'm going to view his at-bat prior to the grand slam as his nadir, and hope to never see those depths again.  The schlub filling in for Chris Sale was on the ropes, and any pitch near the strike zone was getting rocked that inning.  Olt came up with the bases juiced and was ahead 2-0 before popping out.  Christ, even Junior Lake drew a bases loaded walk after that.

A dude behind me last night dubbed him "Babe Olt", saying he saw him call his shot during that AB.

The weird part this anecdote is that you weren't even at the game.