Kyle Hendricks Low Velocity Assassin Splooge Thread

[SKO]

Another good example: last year's Indians, who also started 17-17 and were 35-30 at one point before a 12 game winning streak launched them to the top of the AL.

Or as I noted to a smarmy STL beat writer earlier today who was laughing at Joe Maddon for saying the Cubs long October run last year might still be wearing on some of their pitchers, the last time the Cardinals went to the WS in 2013 they started 2014 at 17-17 and played .500 ball well into June before eventually winning the division at 90-72 and going deep into the NLCS.

[Saul Goodman]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

[Quality Start Machine]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

[SKO]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

[Chuck to Chuck]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

Stipulated: Pitching is good enough.

Not worried about the pitching as I think they will add pitching.

Very worried about hitting. Baez, Schwarber and Contreras all scare me. Willson is a career .776 minor league OPS. He was .845 as a rookie in the majors. Love to believe that's sustainable, but I dunno.

I believe Baez is far more like the 2014 Baez than the 2016 Baez, who was still a 97 OPS+ last year.

And Schwarber is still a rookie. He's only played 103 games. He got off to a hot start hitting .311/.407/.613/1.021 over his first 36 games. Since then: .183/.310/.358/.668.  Now, maybe he gets back to what he did in the minors. Maybe he doesn't.  Yes, it's year 3 of him, but it really isn't. Schwarber is still more unknown than known.

If those three guys are all below what they were in 2016, it's the offense that is the major concern.

[CBStew]

If those three guys are all below what they were in 2016, it's the offense that is the major concern.

Re-post in the "Score Some Fucking Runs" thread.

[Shooter]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

I haven't looked at a game-by-game breakdown, but I've heard or read speculation that the speed readings at Wrigley are artificially low this year with the switch in monitoring systems. Could explain why the whole rotation is down in velocity. Or not.

[SKO]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

Stipulated: Pitching is good enough.

Not worried about the pitching as I think they will add pitching.

Very worried about hitting. Baez, Schwarber and Contreras all scare me. Willson is a career .776 minor league OPS. He was .845 as a rookie in the majors. Love to believe that's sustainable, but I dunno.

I believe Baez is far more like the 2014 Baez than the 2016 Baez, who was still a 97 OPS+ last year.

And Schwarber is still a rookie. He's only played 103 games. He got off to a hot start hitting .311/.407/.613/1.021 over his first 36 games. Since then: .183/.310/.358/.668.  Now, maybe he gets back to what he did in the minors. Maybe he doesn't.  Yes, it's year 3 of him, but it really isn't. Schwarber is still more unknown than known.

If those three guys are all below what they were in 2016, it's the offense that is the major concern.

Citing Willson's career minor league OPS is dumb. The adjustments/changes he made before 2015 are well documented. What he did as a rookie is well in line with what he did in the high minors.

Saying Javy is more 2014 than 2016 while he has started off 2017 as more or less the same guy he was last year is very very Chuck though.

[Quality Start Machine]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

I haven't looked at a game-by-game breakdown, but I've heard or read speculation that the speed readings at Wrigley are artificially low this year with the switch in monitoring systems. Could explain why the whole rotation is down in velocity. Or not.

If that were the case, wouldn't there be a drop in velocity across the entire pitching staff instead of two guys?

[SKO]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

I haven't looked at a game-by-game breakdown, but I've heard or read speculation that the speed readings at Wrigley are artificially low this year with the switch in monitoring systems. Could explain why the whole rotation is down in velocity. Or not.

If that were the case, wouldn't there be a drop in velocity across the entire pitching staff instead of two guys?

There kind of has been a dip across the board for everyone as far as home games go, but Kyle and Jake are still showing slower on the road as well, it's just not as big of a dip. I think I read Kyle has been averaging like 86/87 on the road and 84/85 at home.

There's probably enough data that we can accept that Kyle and Jake have both seen a dip, the question is how much. 1 MPH off of last year is not bad and pitchers tend to gain velocity as the year goes along and it warms up so they may be fine, 2-3 mph is probably not going to come all of the way back.

[Quality Start Machine]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

I haven't looked at a game-by-game breakdown, but I've heard or read speculation that the speed readings at Wrigley are artificially low this year with the switch in monitoring systems. Could explain why the whole rotation is down in velocity. Or not.

If that were the case, wouldn't there be a drop in velocity across the entire pitching staff instead of two guys?

There kind of has been a dip across the board for everyone as far as home games go, but Kyle and Jake are still showing slower on the road as well, it's just not as big of a dip. I think I read Kyle has been averaging like 86/87 on the road and 84/85 at home.

There's probably enough data that we can accept that Kyle and Jake have both seen a dip, the question is how much. 1 MPH off of last year is not bad and pitchers tend to gain velocity as the year goes along and it warms up so they may be fine, 2-3 mph is probably not going to come all of the way back.

Jake trended downward last year too. So this could just be part of the degradation process. It'll be somebody else's problem next year anyway.

[SKO]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

I haven't looked at a game-by-game breakdown, but I've heard or read speculation that the speed readings at Wrigley are artificially low this year with the switch in monitoring systems. Could explain why the whole rotation is down in velocity. Or not.

If that were the case, wouldn't there be a drop in velocity across the entire pitching staff instead of two guys?

There kind of has been a dip across the board for everyone as far as home games go, but Kyle and Jake are still showing slower on the road as well, it's just not as big of a dip. I think I read Kyle has been averaging like 86/87 on the road and 84/85 at home.

There's probably enough data that we can accept that Kyle and Jake have both seen a dip, the question is how much. 1 MPH off of last year is not bad and pitchers tend to gain velocity as the year goes along and it warms up so they may be fine, 2-3 mph is probably not going to come all of the way back.

Jake trended downward last year too. So this could just be part of the degradation process. It'll be somebody else's problem next year anyway.

Ehh, I'm not really sure how related they are, his velocity last year was down a tick from 2015 but well in line with every other year of his career. His problems last year were clearly mechanical (as they have been most of his career) and whenever he was able to get his mechanics right he looked the same as 2015 Jake, particularly when he held the Indians hitless for most of Game 2.

This year his mechanics actually seem fine, his command is better, and he's just not throwing as hard. That leads me to believe he's just lost something, but I don't think last year is all that relevant.

[Quality Start Machine]

I'm concerned about their pitching. We knew there were gaps to fill at the end of the season with Arrieta, Lackey, Anderson all headed for free agency but the rotation's performances are down across the board. It's fair to wonder if that will change given all the extra work and remarkable run of good health they've enjoyed since 2015.

I don't think it's that big a deal. They can always go the rental route this summer, and then when Jake, Lackey, Jay and Montero all roll off this winter, they can throw money around like Charlie Sheen at a valley titty bar.

Jake is probably due some positive regression, his FIP is considerably higher than his ERA and he's actually K'ing more and walking fewer guys than he did last year. His biggest issue right now is his slider is a lot more hittable than it has been in the past, but I think he'll probably be a dependable 3/4 most of the year. Same with Kyle. He's on a hot streak but if he can't get his fastball above 85 his margin for error is even slimmer than usual and he's probably more 2014/2015 back-of-the-rotation Hendricks than last year's surprise ace. The Cubs can absolutely make the playoffs with Lester being Lester, Jake and Kyle being middle of the road starters, and Lackey eating innings as an OK five, but they probably can't win many postseason series with that, so yeah I'd expect them to push for a guy like Cueto or Darvish.

Stipulated: Pitching is good enough.

Not worried about the pitching as I think they will add pitching.

Very worried about hitting. Baez, Schwarber and Contreras all scare me. Willson is a career .776 minor league OPS. He was .845 as a rookie in the majors. Love to believe that's sustainable, but I dunno.

I believe Baez is far more like the 2014 Baez than the 2016 Baez, who was still a 97 OPS+ last year.

And Schwarber is still a rookie. He's only played 103 games. He got off to a hot start hitting .311/.407/.613/1.021 over his first 36 games. Since then: .183/.310/.358/.668.  Now, maybe he gets back to what he did in the minors. Maybe he doesn't.  Yes, it's year 3 of him, but it really isn't. Schwarber is still more unknown than known.

If those three guys are all below what they were in 2016, it's the offense that is the major concern.

Since Schwarber has already played more than three games this season, I think it's safe to say he's above his 2016 level.

[SKO]

I think he's fine now. That's 5 good starts in a row and he was hitting 88/89 last night.

[flannj]

I think he's fine now. That's 5 good starts in a row and he was hitting 88/89 last night.

I think he's been fine all along.