Bears 2015 Draft Discussion

[Eli]

The amount of time you people spend defending your QB is hilarious.

I know that pretty much everyone who doesn't root for the Bears gets all over him so there's some value to rallying around the guy, but man, what a continual effort you all put forth on a regular basis.

I'm not even passing judgement at this point, it's just a marvel to watch.

I think the nature of Cutler's play creates polar opposite views of him. There's that large faction that thinks he's a worse version of Rex Grossman, and then there's SKO, who violently contorts himself to pre-emptively defend anything Cutler does because he's anticipating the reaction of the first group (sorry, SKO; I still love you). If the first group didn't exist, the second group probably wouldn't either.

But yes, it does all add up to a staggering amount of rhetoric over a guy who is basically just a pretty good quarterback. It's just that Cutler goes about it in the most extreme ways possible, but it all kind of balances out:

[PenFoe]

The amount of time you people spend defending your QB is hilarious.

I know that pretty much everyone who doesn't root for the Bears gets all over him so there's some value to rallying around the guy, but man, what a continual effort you all put forth on a regular basis.

I'm not even passing judgement at this point, it's just a marvel to watch.

I think the nature of Cutler's play creates polar opposite views of him. There's that large faction that thinks he's a worse version of Rex Grossman, and then there's SKO, who violently contorts himself to pre-emptively defend anything Cutler does because he's anticipating the reaction of the first group (sorry, SKO; I still love you). If the first group didn't exist, the second group probably wouldn't either.

But yes, it does all add up to a staggering amount of rhetoric over a guy who is basically just a pretty good league average quarterback. It's just that Cutler goes about it in the most extreme ways possible, but it all kind of balances out:

Rate+'d

[SKO]

The amount of time you people spend defending your QB is hilarious.

I know that pretty much everyone who doesn't root for the Bears gets all over him so there's some value to rallying around the guy, but man, what a continual effort you all put forth on a regular basis.

I'm not even passing judgement at this point, it's just a marvel to watch.

I think the nature of Cutler's play creates polar opposite views of him. There's that large faction that thinks he's a worse version of Rex Grossman, and then there's SKO, who violently contorts himself to pre-emptively defend anything Cutler does because he's anticipating the reaction of the first group (sorry, SKO; I still love you). If the first group didn't exist, the second group probably wouldn't either.

But yes, it does all add up to a staggering amount of rhetoric over a guy who is basically just a pretty good league average quarterback. It's just that Cutler goes about it in the most extreme ways possible, but it all kind of balances out:

Rate+'d

There are like fifty more useful stats, all of which would have backed up your point about Jay being a mostly average quarterback in his career to this point, and you choose to emphasize QB rating, which is the dumbest stat of them all. Even when you're right, you are so wrong about how you choose to do it.

And yeah, what Eli said. It's that his highs are so high and his lows are so low that it lends itself to a polarization and each and every throw and game leads to a brand new referendum on whether he's "finally getting it" or "never going to be a winner" instead of just saying "oh, he played well today" or "oh, he fucked up today" and moving on. There are people who want to call it his signature game when he goes off for 176 yards and what was basically just a really nice performance in the red zone and there are people who want to signal him out as the main culprit for losing a game when the defense literally did not stop a single opposing drive.

A lot of it also boils down to the way this entire league is pitched as THE LEAGUE OF ELITE QUARTERBACKING. There's maybe two quarterbacks in the entire league in Rodgers and Peyton who are so productive and so immune to fuckups that they can singlehandedly will their teams to 10 wins minimum a year, and then there are a lot of guys who can do a passable imitation of those two if things break right. Breesus has gone 7-9 or 8-8 multiple times in New Orleans. Philip Rivers was written off for dead before last year. Brady is finally dying and it's glorious. But basically Bears fans have lived in horrible jealousy of the fuckheads to the north who have benefitted from two Hall of Fame quarterbacks for twenty years and they make it look so easy and we reach the point where half the fan base (as evidence by our moron friend CFIHP) would rather just tank every year on the off chance of maybe finding one of those transcendent QBs and risk never being competitive again, I guess, rather than watch them try to build a solid roster around Cutler and hope to ride a hot streak to a Flacco or Eli-esque title run, knowing full well the odds are more in favor of another 8-8 dickpunch.

TL, DR: watching too much Aaron Rodgers has definitely ruined the fan base, because we'll never get to have one of those as long as I live and I know it.

[PenFoe]

There are like fifty more useful stats, all of which would have backed up your point about Jay being a mostly average quarterback in his career to this point, and you choose to emphasize QB rating, which is the dumbest stat of them all. Even when you're right, you are so wrong about how you choose to do it.

And yeah, what Eli said. It's that his highs are so high and his lows are so low that it lends itself to a polarization and each and every throw and game leads to a brand new referendum on whether he's "finally getting it" or "never going to be a winner" instead of just saying "oh, he played well today" or "oh, he fucked up today" and moving on. There are people who want to call it his signature game when he goes off for 176 yards and what was basically just a really nice performance in the red zone and there are people who want to signal him out as the main culprit for losing a game when the defense literally did not stop a single opposing drive.

A lot of it also boils down to the way this entire league is pitched as THE LEAGUE OF ELITE QUARTERBACKING. There's maybe two quarterbacks in the entire league in Rodgers and Peyton who are so productive and so immune to fuckups that they can singlehandedly will their teams to 10 wins minimum a year, and then there are a lot of guys who can do a passable imitation of those two if things break right. Breesus has gone 7-9 or 8-8 multiple times in New Orleans. Philip Rivers was written off for dead before last year. Brady is finally dying and it's glorious. But basically Bears fans have lived in horrible jealousy of the fuckheads to the north who have benefitted from two Hall of Fame quarterbacks for twenty years and they make it look so easy and we reach the point where half the fan base (as evidence by our moron friend CFIHP) would rather just tank every year on the off chance of maybe finding one of those transcendent QBs and risk never being competitive again, I guess, rather than watch them try to build a solid roster around Cutler and hope to ride a hot streak to a Flacco or Eli-esque title run, knowing full well the odds are more in favor of another 8-8 dickpunch.

TL, DR: watching too much Aaron Rodgers has definitely ruined the fan base, because we'll never get to have one of those as long as I live and I know it.

So, it's a good stat until it isn't?

The last time (Jay Cutler played the Saints) he threw for 350+ yards and had a passer rating of over 100

He (Carson Palmer) went from an 8-13 ratio with a 69.5 rating when I said that (something brilliant, no doubt) to 16:9 with a 96.5 rating in his last 9.

(Talking about Erik Kramer for some reason) 1993-1995 though he had a 45:21 ratio, 91.2 rating, 61.2% completions

So basically if McCown repeats anything close to last year (worth noting a 90+ passer rating would be more than 10 points below what he managed last year, so I gave him some leeway, he'd basically be the first guy to ever really repeat a "breakout" season at such a late age.

Gannon had three seasons before his 90+ rating season at age 35 where he took at least 200 attempts and had a rating over 80

I can't imagine any other weak armed backup with a 68.6 QB rating getting this much attention if his own fanbase hadn't spent two years saying he was a leader and not a glory boy showboat like RGIII and was the rightful starter

I guess the question is whether you place all of the emphasis on his (Cutler's) very encouraging 96.5 rating and 16-9 ratio in the last nine games or if you look at his kind of turd-like first 7 games

I'm saying judging jay's entire future based on a game where he was down 14-0 and 21-0 before he could even take a breath is absurd, when he's finished with a passer rating of 100+ in his last three full starts before that. I mean, his body of work is what it is

again, Cutler's passer rating in the 8 games he actually finished is 93.3, and he's faced defenses ranked 16th or better in 6 of those games. McCown played 1 defense in the top 20, and scored 13 points

If Cutler had put up a 75.0 Passer rating in the Lovie Era there'd be no defending him.

There were roughly 10000 more, but I got bored.

[SKO]

So, it's a good stat until it isn't?

The last time (Jay Cutler played the Saints) he threw for 350+ yards and had a passer rating of over 100

He (Carson Palmer) went from an 8-13 ratio with a 69.5 rating when I said that (something brilliant, no doubt) to 16:9 with a 96.5 rating in his last 9.

(Talking about Erik Kramer for some reason) 1993-1995 though he had a 45:21 ratio, 91.2 rating, 61.2% completions

So basically if McCown repeats anything close to last year (worth noting a 90+ passer rating would be more than 10 points below what he managed last year, so I gave him some leeway, he'd basically be the first guy to ever really repeat a "breakout" season at such a late age.

Gannon had three seasons before his 90+ rating season at age 35 where he took at least 200 attempts and had a rating over 80

I can't imagine any other weak armed backup with a 68.6 QB rating getting this much attention if his own fanbase hadn't spent two years saying he was a leader and not a glory boy showboat like RGIII and was the rightful starter

I guess the question is whether you place all of the emphasis on his (Cutler's) very encouraging 96.5 rating and 16-9 ratio in the last nine games or if you look at his kind of turd-like first 7 games

I'm saying judging jay's entire future based on a game where he was down 14-0 and 21-0 before he could even take a breath is absurd, when he's finished with a passer rating of 100+ in his last three full starts before that. I mean, his body of work is what it is

again, Cutler's passer rating in the 8 games he actually finished is 93.3, and he's faced defenses ranked 16th or better in 6 of those games. McCown played 1 defense in the top 20, and scored 13 points

If Cutler had put up a 75.0 Passer rating in the Lovie Era there'd be no defending him.

There were roughly 10000 more, but I got bored.

I'm not saying it doesn't have it's uses, it's just easily the worst single stat to use when arguing what is or isn't an average QB. Have you ever quoted a baseball player's batting average in the context of an argument while also understanding that isn't the single stat you would use to most effectively quantify his actual contributions?

[SKO]

So, it's a good stat until it isn't?

The last time (Jay Cutler played the Saints) he threw for 350+ yards and had a passer rating of over 100

He (Carson Palmer) went from an 8-13 ratio with a 69.5 rating when I said that (something brilliant, no doubt) to 16:9 with a 96.5 rating in his last 9.

(Talking about Erik Kramer for some reason) 1993-1995 though he had a 45:21 ratio, 91.2 rating, 61.2% completions

So basically if McCown repeats anything close to last year (worth noting a 90+ passer rating would be more than 10 points below what he managed last year, so I gave him some leeway, he'd basically be the first guy to ever really repeat a "breakout" season at such a late age.

Gannon had three seasons before his 90+ rating season at age 35 where he took at least 200 attempts and had a rating over 80

I can't imagine any other weak armed backup with a 68.6 QB rating getting this much attention if his own fanbase hadn't spent two years saying he was a leader and not a glory boy showboat like RGIII and was the rightful starter

I guess the question is whether you place all of the emphasis on his (Cutler's) very encouraging 96.5 rating and 16-9 ratio in the last nine games or if you look at his kind of turd-like first 7 games

I'm saying judging jay's entire future based on a game where he was down 14-0 and 21-0 before he could even take a breath is absurd, when he's finished with a passer rating of 100+ in his last three full starts before that. I mean, his body of work is what it is

again, Cutler's passer rating in the 8 games he actually finished is 93.3, and he's faced defenses ranked 16th or better in 6 of those games. McCown played 1 defense in the top 20, and scored 13 points

If Cutler had put up a 75.0 Passer rating in the Lovie Era there'd be no defending him.

There were roughly 10000 more, but I got bored.

I'm not saying it doesn't have it's uses, it's just easily the worst single stat to use when arguing what is or isn't an average QB. Have you ever quoted a baseball player's batting average in the context of an argument while also understanding that isn't the single stat you would use to most effectively quantify his actual contributions?

Also I believe the quote from 12/31/2013 was discussing Carson Palmer's 2013 campaign, not Jay's. Since we're obviously being pedants.

[PenFoe]

So, it's a good stat until it isn't?

The last time (Jay Cutler played the Saints) he threw for 350+ yards and had a passer rating of over 100

He (Carson Palmer) went from an 8-13 ratio with a 69.5 rating when I said that (something brilliant, no doubt) to 16:9 with a 96.5 rating in his last 9.

(Talking about Erik Kramer for some reason) 1993-1995 though he had a 45:21 ratio, 91.2 rating, 61.2% completions

So basically if McCown repeats anything close to last year (worth noting a 90+ passer rating would be more than 10 points below what he managed last year, so I gave him some leeway, he'd basically be the first guy to ever really repeat a "breakout" season at such a late age.

Gannon had three seasons before his 90+ rating season at age 35 where he took at least 200 attempts and had a rating over 80

I can't imagine any other weak armed backup with a 68.6 QB rating getting this much attention if his own fanbase hadn't spent two years saying he was a leader and not a glory boy showboat like RGIII and was the rightful starter

I guess the question is whether you place all of the emphasis on his (Cutler's) very encouraging 96.5 rating and 16-9 ratio in the last nine games or if you look at his kind of turd-like first 7 games

I'm saying judging jay's entire future based on a game where he was down 14-0 and 21-0 before he could even take a breath is absurd, when he's finished with a passer rating of 100+ in his last three full starts before that. I mean, his body of work is what it is

again, Cutler's passer rating in the 8 games he actually finished is 93.3, and he's faced defenses ranked 16th or better in 6 of those games. McCown played 1 defense in the top 20, and scored 13 points

If Cutler had put up a 75.0 Passer rating in the Lovie Era there'd be no defending him.

There were roughly 10000 more, but I got bored.

I'm not saying it doesn't have it's uses, it's just easily the worst single stat to use when arguing what is or isn't an average QB. Have you ever quoted a baseball player's batting average in the context of an argument while also understanding that isn't the single stat you would use to most effectively quantify his actual contributions?

So, it's the worst stat to use in isolation except for like the 50 times you've used it?

As for batting average, I can't recall using it outside a slash line in years.  

Maybe in a few years you'll feel that way about QB Rating and you can laugh at the old days when you only used it when it suited you.

[SKO]

So, it's a good stat until it isn't?

The last time (Jay Cutler played the Saints) he threw for 350+ yards and had a passer rating of over 100

He (Carson Palmer) went from an 8-13 ratio with a 69.5 rating when I said that (something brilliant, no doubt) to 16:9 with a 96.5 rating in his last 9.

(Talking about Erik Kramer for some reason) 1993-1995 though he had a 45:21 ratio, 91.2 rating, 61.2% completions

So basically if McCown repeats anything close to last year (worth noting a 90+ passer rating would be more than 10 points below what he managed last year, so I gave him some leeway, he'd basically be the first guy to ever really repeat a "breakout" season at such a late age.

Gannon had three seasons before his 90+ rating season at age 35 where he took at least 200 attempts and had a rating over 80

I can't imagine any other weak armed backup with a 68.6 QB rating getting this much attention if his own fanbase hadn't spent two years saying he was a leader and not a glory boy showboat like RGIII and was the rightful starter

I guess the question is whether you place all of the emphasis on his (Cutler's) very encouraging 96.5 rating and 16-9 ratio in the last nine games or if you look at his kind of turd-like first 7 games

I'm saying judging jay's entire future based on a game where he was down 14-0 and 21-0 before he could even take a breath is absurd, when he's finished with a passer rating of 100+ in his last three full starts before that. I mean, his body of work is what it is

again, Cutler's passer rating in the 8 games he actually finished is 93.3, and he's faced defenses ranked 16th or better in 6 of those games. McCown played 1 defense in the top 20, and scored 13 points

If Cutler had put up a 75.0 Passer rating in the Lovie Era there'd be no defending him.

There were roughly 10000 more, but I got bored.

I'm not saying it doesn't have it's uses, it's just easily the worst single stat to use when arguing what is or isn't an average QB. Have you ever quoted a baseball player's batting average in the context of an argument while also understanding that isn't the single stat you would use to most effectively quantify his actual contributions?

So, it's the worst stat to use in isolation except for like the 50 times you've used it?

As for batting average, I can't recall using it outside a slash line in years.  

Maybe in a few years you'll feel that way about QB Rating and you can laugh at the old days when you only used it when it suited you.

Generally speaking it's a useful tool for measuring the overall effectiveness of a passing offense, but it has it's downside in that it over-emphasizes completions and de-emphasizes yards per attempt. Again, it's not worthless, I do use it (often in the football equivalent of a slash line of YPA/TD:INT Ratio/Completion %/Rating in that order), I just don't like to regard it as definitive in any way when you can get a guy like Alex Smith racking up ratings in the 90s by completing 70% of his five yard hooks. I was just saying that you posted a nice chart that had a lot of wonderful ways of showing that Jay was average and you picked to me the least important and most inefficient of those stats to make your argument, when AY/A+, which weights much more properly a QBs individual contributions to an offense, was right there and as equally underwhelming.

[SKO]

So, it's a good stat until it isn't?

The last time (Jay Cutler played the Saints) he threw for 350+ yards and had a passer rating of over 100

He (Carson Palmer) went from an 8-13 ratio with a 69.5 rating when I said that (something brilliant, no doubt) to 16:9 with a 96.5 rating in his last 9.

(Talking about Erik Kramer for some reason) 1993-1995 though he had a 45:21 ratio, 91.2 rating, 61.2% completions

So basically if McCown repeats anything close to last year (worth noting a 90+ passer rating would be more than 10 points below what he managed last year, so I gave him some leeway, he'd basically be the first guy to ever really repeat a "breakout" season at such a late age.

Gannon had three seasons before his 90+ rating season at age 35 where he took at least 200 attempts and had a rating over 80

I can't imagine any other weak armed backup with a 68.6 QB rating getting this much attention if his own fanbase hadn't spent two years saying he was a leader and not a glory boy showboat like RGIII and was the rightful starter

I guess the question is whether you place all of the emphasis on his (Cutler's) very encouraging 96.5 rating and 16-9 ratio in the last nine games or if you look at his kind of turd-like first 7 games

I'm saying judging jay's entire future based on a game where he was down 14-0 and 21-0 before he could even take a breath is absurd, when he's finished with a passer rating of 100+ in his last three full starts before that. I mean, his body of work is what it is

again, Cutler's passer rating in the 8 games he actually finished is 93.3, and he's faced defenses ranked 16th or better in 6 of those games. McCown played 1 defense in the top 20, and scored 13 points

If Cutler had put up a 75.0 Passer rating in the Lovie Era there'd be no defending him.

There were roughly 10000 more, but I got bored.

I'm not saying it doesn't have it's uses, it's just easily the worst single stat to use when arguing what is or isn't an average QB. Have you ever quoted a baseball player's batting average in the context of an argument while also understanding that isn't the single stat you would use to most effectively quantify his actual contributions?

So, it's the worst stat to use in isolation except for like the 50 times you've used it?

As for batting average, I can't recall using it outside a slash line in years. 

Maybe in a few years you'll feel that way about QB Rating and you can laugh at the old days when you only used it when it suited you.

Generally speaking it's a useful tool for measuring the overall effectiveness of a passing offense, but it has it's downside in that it over-emphasizes completions and de-emphasizes yards per attempt. Again, it's not worthless, I do use it (often in the football equivalent of a slash line of YPA/TD:INT Ratio/Completion %/Rating in that order), I just don't like to regard it as definitive in any way when you can get a guy like Alex Smith racking up ratings in the 90s by completing 70% of his five yard hooks. I was just saying that you posted a nice chart that had a lot of wonderful ways of showing that Jay was average and you picked to me the least important and most inefficient of those stats to make your argument, when AY/A+, which weights much more properly a QBs individual contributions to an offense, was right there and as equally underwhelming.

I also tend to use it in arguments more than I'd prefer to because it's a stat people are familiar with. Few people are as invested in stats like AY/A+ or DYAR or PFF Grade or Adjusted QB Rating as I am and using those in arguments tends to get me lobbed with accusations of cherry-picking (often totally, totally valid accusations).

[PenFoe]

Well, I definitely got my quarter's worth.

[SKO]

Well, I definitely got my quarter's worth.

Glad I could help. Wouldn't want you to spend the day thinking about blowing a last second lead to Mike Glennon at home or anything.

[Saul Goodman]

Well, I definitely got my quarter's worth.

Is there a thread for your favorite team somewhere that I could read every day waiting for something to seize upon even though I don't actually care about that team or what's being said?  Thanks in advance.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Well, I definitely got my quarter's worth.

To be fair, you had to do a bit of work yourself, but kudos.

[Eli]

Well, I definitely got my quarter's worth.

Is there a thread for your favorite team somewhere that I could read every day waiting for something to seize upon even though I don't actually care about that team or what's being said?  Thanks in advance.

Sterling makes a reasonable point.

[flannj]

I must have clicked on this thread a dozen times today.

I wasn't disappointed.