Bears 2015 Draft Discussion

[Saul Goodman]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

[SKO]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

[Saul Goodman]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

[SKO]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

[Eli]

Isn't a full-scale tank, teardown and rebuild much more rare/difficult in the NFL?

[SKO]

Isn't a full-scale tank, teardown and rebuild much more rare/difficult in the NFL?

Yes. You have a damn 53 man roster, you get seven draft picks, only 3 of which are ever going to be starters even if you're really fucking good at this, and the salary cap and you can't really trade veterans for "prospects". I guess tank is just kind of the catchall term for "get rid of the veterans you have and get completely new veterans, hopefully draft better".

I think honestly at this point rebuild for the Bears just means "try anything other than Cutler at quarterback, even if he's not really the problem."

[SKO]

To clarify I'm not saying Jay isn't part of the problem. He very obviously is. But the mystifying thing is I'm not really sure how much better they can get without him unless they somehow manage to perfect CFIHP's patented "just draft peyton manning or aaron Rodgers, dumbos" strategy. It's not like they're in a situation where they are moving the ball well and he singlehandedly fucks 'em with turnovers, or where they need an Orton/Alex Smith time to "just protect the football". This team is too fucked to win with a game manager, either. Their option is to build a better roster around Jay probably just in time for him to get hurt again or die, or find a once-in-a-generation type transcendent talent at QB.

In short, go Cubs.

[Chuck to Chuck]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

[SKO]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

True. With the raise in the salary cap though I wouldn't be shocked if they cut him after next year. Not ideal, obviously, but you can probably swallow that kind of cap  hit, especially since if Cutler bombs next year they're hiring a new coach and maybe a new GM and neither of those guys is going to want to be the 17th pairing of brains to fail with Jay Cutler at QB.

[Chuck to Chuck]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

True. With the raise in the salary cap though I wouldn't be shocked if they cut him after next year. Not ideal, obviously, but you can probably swallow that kind of cap  hit, especially since if Cutler bombs next year they're hiring a new coach and maybe a new GM and neither of those guys is going to want to be the 17th pairing of brains to fail with Jay Cutler at QB.

That would save them $6mm. Your scenario is not unreasonable.  Tea leaves in the form of what round (if any) they go QB in 2015.

[SKO]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

True. With the raise in the salary cap though I wouldn't be shocked if they cut him after next year. Not ideal, obviously, but you can probably swallow that kind of cap  hit, especially since if Cutler bombs next year they're hiring a new coach and maybe a new GM and neither of those guys is going to want to be the 17th pairing of brains to fail with Jay Cutler at QB.

That would save them $6mm. Your scenario is not unreasonable.  Tea leaves in the form of what round (if any) they go QB in 2015.

I doubt they go QB in 2015. Trestman signed off on Cutler. Emery signed off on Cutler. They're hitched to him. They'd better spend every resource they have on building a team that can win with Jay Cutler in 2015 or they're all out (well Trestman definitely, Emery maybe). No way they're wasting a useful bullet on a project QB that some other guy is probably going to have to develop. Cutler fails you get a first round QB in 2016.

Also the 2015 QB class looks shitty anyway. I'm not sold on Mariotta or Hundley or any of the possible first rounders they're throwing out there, and while I don't play DA MCCASCHEYS WILL GET IN DA WAY card much, I don't see any scenario where this franchise signs off on handing the keys to Jameis Winston even if he fell to them.

[CubFaninHydePark]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

True. With the raise in the salary cap though I wouldn't be shocked if they cut him after next year. Not ideal, obviously, but you can probably swallow that kind of cap  hit, especially since if Cutler bombs next year they're hiring a new coach and maybe a new GM and neither of those guys is going to want to be the 17th pairing of brains to fail with Jay Cutler at QB.

I could see a team like Arizona trading for Cutler if they can't get a veteran FA like Roethlisberger.  The return will be a lot less than what the Bears gave up for him, but dumping Cutler in a trade after this season or next may be the best option for all parties involved.  Especially if they're going to fire Treststink after this season, which would be fine by me.

I also want a top 5 draft pick, based on the research that establishes that value in the first round is at the top or bottom end, but any pick in the middle is basically as valuable as any other.

I also wouldn't mind seeing a coach come in who wanted to play a 3-4.  Now that the defense has been decimated, I'd rather the organization rebuild with a commitment to speed at the LB position and a defense that makes blitzing a lot easier in a division with Rodgers and Stafford chucking the ball.  

[SKO]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

True. With the raise in the salary cap though I wouldn't be shocked if they cut him after next year. Not ideal, obviously, but you can probably swallow that kind of cap  hit, especially since if Cutler bombs next year they're hiring a new coach and maybe a new GM and neither of those guys is going to want to be the 17th pairing of brains to fail with Jay Cutler at QB.

I could see a team like Arizona trading for Cutler if they can't get a veteran FA like Roethlisberger.  The return will be a lot less than what the Bears gave up for him, but dumping Cutler in a trade after this season or next may be the best option for all parties involved.  Especially if they're going to fire Treststink after this season, which would be fine by me.

I also want a top 5 draft pick, based on the research that establishes that value in the first round is at the top or bottom end, but any pick in the middle is basically as valuable as any other.

I also wouldn't mind seeing a coach come in who wanted to play a 3-4.  Now that the defense has been decimated, I'd rather the organization rebuild with a commitment to speed at the LB position and a defense that makes blitzing a lot easier in a division with Rodgers and Stafford chucking the ball.  

What the hell is with the constant belief among fans that the 3-4 is somehow the better scheme? Rodgers is literally, statistically the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL vs. the blitz and you think that's the answer?

3 of the top 6 defenses in the NFL this year run the 4-3. The Seahawks had (adjusted for the pass happy era) arguably the greatest pass defense of all time last year running a 4-3. 4-3 defenses have won 5 of the last 8 Superbowls. The 2002 Buccaneers, the 2000 Ravens, the 1985 Bears, the 70s Steelers, the 90s Cowboys all ran a goddamn 4-3. But blitzes sound fun and stuff so let's get a 3-4 despite the fact that the only good thing about this defense and arguably the entire team is a defensive line that's already produced 19 sacks.

I mean if they hire Todd Bowles or something and he wants to bring a 3-4 with him, more power to him, but there's zero evidence whatsoever the scheme is somehow inherently superior.

[SKO]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

True. With the raise in the salary cap though I wouldn't be shocked if they cut him after next year. Not ideal, obviously, but you can probably swallow that kind of cap  hit, especially since if Cutler bombs next year they're hiring a new coach and maybe a new GM and neither of those guys is going to want to be the 17th pairing of brains to fail with Jay Cutler at QB.

I could see a team like Arizona trading for Cutler if they can't get a veteran FA like Roethlisberger.  The return will be a lot less than what the Bears gave up for him, but dumping Cutler in a trade after this season or next may be the best option for all parties involved.  Especially if they're going to fire Treststink after this season, which would be fine by me.

I also want a top 5 draft pick, based on the research that establishes that value in the first round is at the top or bottom end, but any pick in the middle is basically as valuable as any other.

I also wouldn't mind seeing a coach come in who wanted to play a 3-4.  Now that the defense has been decimated, I'd rather the organization rebuild with a commitment to speed at the LB position and a defense that makes blitzing a lot easier in a division with Rodgers and Stafford chucking the ball.  

Also glad you keep referencing and never citing this study you read. This would seem to indicate otherwise:
The blue line is the 5 year career average value (a useful stat developed by Pro Football Reference that, while not perfect, gives a general idea of how useful a player has been in his career) vs. the green line, or "expected value" if, in theory, the production of players drafted in the first round directly correlated to their draft slot. Basically it's a total crapshoot and tanking (unless done for a clear, concrete goal like acquiring the #1 overall pick to get someone like Andrew Luck, which is still a risky proposition given how few of those there are) doesn't really reward any more than just drafting in the middle of the first round.

[ChuckD]

No one's been fired yet, so when does the team get dissolved as a legal entity?  Is that tomorrow?  Rosenbloom told me to expect it.

I'm not really sure what I expected. I don't actually think firing Mel Tucker mid-season accomplishes anything, although I'll be pretty mad if he comes back next year, I just kinda figured they'd have some list of lineup changes or something to throw at people to show things are changing and they said nothing. Which really is probably the most sensible thing. But I can't blame anyone for wanting sound and fury and blood just to feel better.

So is CFIHP correct that it's time to start tanking for the 2015 draft?  Was Chuck ... *gasp* ... right?

Well, maybe? Cutler's not going anywhere till after next year. Forte's up after next year. Trestman's up after next year. They can walk away from Marshall without much penalty after next year, I think. Same with Bennett and Houston and Allen.

So this group is still in it together for this year and next year, most likely. So the best case scenario would be the offense figures it's shit out, ends this year playing well, Emery can spend a bunch of money and draft picks on the defense again this offseason, they try to contend next year, and if they still suck, you can blow everything up without crippling your cap situation, which is what would happen if they did that now. Hard to start a rebuild with $50 million or whatever in dead money. Ask Oakland.

Re-looking at Cutler's cap situation, he gets a $10mm 2016 salary guaranty if he's on the team in April 2015. That would raise his cap hit to at least $13million if he's cut post 2015 season. The more likely scenario is that he's cut post 2016 where his cap hit will be $2.0mm in 2017.  That means that the Bears would likely draft a new QB in one of the next two drafts.

True. With the raise in the salary cap though I wouldn't be shocked if they cut him after next year. Not ideal, obviously, but you can probably swallow that kind of cap  hit, especially since if Cutler bombs next year they're hiring a new coach and maybe a new GM and neither of those guys is going to want to be the 17th pairing of brains to fail with Jay Cutler at QB.

I could see a team like Arizona trading for Cutler if they can't get a veteran FA like Roethlisberger.  The return will be a lot less than what the Bears gave up for him, but dumping Cutler in a trade after this season or next may be the best option for all parties involved.  Especially if they're going to fire Treststink after this season, which would be fine by me.

I also want a top 5 draft pick, based on the research that establishes that value in the first round is at the top or bottom end, but any pick in the middle is basically as valuable as any other.

I also wouldn't mind seeing a coach come in who wanted to play a 3-4.  Now that the defense has been decimated, I'd rather the organization rebuild with a commitment to speed at the LB position and a defense that makes blitzing a lot easier in a division with Rodgers and Stafford chucking the ball. 

Also glad you keep referencing and never citing this study you read. This would seem to indicate otherwise:
The blue line is the 5 year career average value (a useful stat developed by Pro Football Reference that, while not perfect, gives a general idea of how useful a player has been in his career) vs. the green line, or "expected value" if, in theory, the production of players drafted in the first round directly correlated to their draft slot. Basically it's a total crapshoot and tanking (unless done for a clear, concrete goal like acquiring the #1 overall pick to get someone like Andrew Luck, which is still a risky proposition given how few of those there are) doesn't really reward any more than just drafting in the middle of the first round.

I know nothing about football, but I would be extremely surprised if the "expected value" of a (1st round) draft slot was linear. Your graph seems to show that a mid 2nd rounder has negative expected value.