2015 NFL Thread: Burn It All Down

[PenFoe]

That said Chip Kelly is fucking nuts and I am interested in seeing how quickly he burns all of Philadelphia down.

He definitely is the most fascinating thing going on in the NFL right now.

Well, except for the time that the Bears gave Eddie Royal $10MM guaranteed.

The Colts gave Andre Johnson $16.5MM and he's five years older than Royal. I understand the Colts are trying to get into a Super Bowl while the Bears are trying to get out of their own way. I don't know. That's what people cost these days.

Where did you get that guaranteed number for Andre Johnson?  I only see $7.5MM - $10.5MM.

I feel like an average of $3.3 million guaranteed dollars a year is probably about what you'd expect a 28 year old accomplished slot receiver to make. I mean the absolute vet minimum, is what, $750 K? This seems like a really weird thing to call more bizarre than Chip Kelly or the strangest thing going on this offseason when Ndamukong Suh just got $60 million guaranteed.

Why would you guarantee 3 years to Eddie Royal?

I know you've only watched Bears games in your life, but Eddie Royals LITERALLY grow on trees.

And the Dolphins always overpay for the top Free Agent. It's like a rite of Spring.

The years on an NFL contract are NEVER guaranteed Pen. Jebus.

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not. 

My point is that $10MM guaranteed to Eddie Royal is way too much (over any length of time)   
SKO justified it by saying it was $3.3MM a year (implying a 3-year run.)

Isn't the salary cap like $140 million this year? Let's assume he's only a Bear for 2 years, at $5 million guaranteed a year that's like 4% of the cap. It's not a lot of money. The Bears have about a thousand other problems we could pick apart. This ain't one of 'em.

It's at 143 I think, and it's gone up 20 mil in two years. I said "an average of 3.3 mil per year" because even if you cut a guy in the NFL the guaranteed money cap hit is usually spread over the full length of the contract. That's why teams give out long deals they know they'll never let a player get to the end of. I didn't realize this was too advanced of a concept for Pen to grasp, although I probably should have.

You're looking at a guy with a cap hit about 1/3rd of what Marshall was making on a team with like 30 million in cap space. I fail to see how this can really be that stupid. I mean, sure, maybe he's overpaid, but literally every free agent ever is considered overpaid. That is how free agency works. I'm not terribly excited about this but it's hard to envision a scenario where the Bears are caught in such a bind sometime in the next three years that we'll all be saying "JESUS IF ONLY THEY HADN'T GIVEN 10 MILLION DOLLARS TO EDDIE ROYAL."

TL/DR Penis wrong.

This is a terrible contract.
I'm have no idea how you don't see that.

Just because they have 1000 other problems doesn't make this any less stupid.

[SKO]

That said Chip Kelly is fucking nuts and I am interested in seeing how quickly he burns all of Philadelphia down.

He definitely is the most fascinating thing going on in the NFL right now.

Well, except for the time that the Bears gave Eddie Royal $10MM guaranteed.

The Colts gave Andre Johnson $16.5MM and he's five years older than Royal. I understand the Colts are trying to get into a Super Bowl while the Bears are trying to get out of their own way. I don't know. That's what people cost these days.

Where did you get that guaranteed number for Andre Johnson?  I only see $7.5MM - $10.5MM.

I feel like an average of $3.3 million guaranteed dollars a year is probably about what you'd expect a 28 year old accomplished slot receiver to make. I mean the absolute vet minimum, is what, $750 K? This seems like a really weird thing to call more bizarre than Chip Kelly or the strangest thing going on this offseason when Ndamukong Suh just got $60 million guaranteed.

Why would you guarantee 3 years to Eddie Royal?

I know you've only watched Bears games in your life, but Eddie Royals LITERALLY grow on trees.

And the Dolphins always overpay for the top Free Agent. It's like a rite of Spring.

The years on an NFL contract are NEVER guaranteed Pen. Jebus.

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not. 

My point is that $10MM guaranteed to Eddie Royal is way too much (over any length of time)   
SKO justified it by saying it was $3.3MM a year (implying a 3-year run.)

Isn't the salary cap like $140 million this year? Let's assume he's only a Bear for 2 years, at $5 million guaranteed a year that's like 4% of the cap. It's not a lot of money. The Bears have about a thousand other problems we could pick apart. This ain't one of 'em.

It's at 143 I think, and it's gone up 20 mil in two years. I said "an average of 3.3 mil per year" because even if you cut a guy in the NFL the guaranteed money cap hit is usually spread over the full length of the contract. That's why teams give out long deals they know they'll never let a player get to the end of. I didn't realize this was too advanced of a concept for Pen to grasp, although I probably should have.

You're looking at a guy with a cap hit about 1/3rd of what Marshall was making on a team with like 30 million in cap space. I fail to see how this can really be that stupid. I mean, sure, maybe he's overpaid, but literally every free agent ever is considered overpaid. That is how free agency works. I'm not terribly excited about this but it's hard to envision a scenario where the Bears are caught in such a bind sometime in the next three years that we'll all be saying "JESUS IF ONLY THEY HADN'T GIVEN 10 MILLION DOLLARS TO EDDIE ROYAL."

TL/DR Penis wrong.

This is a terrible contract.
I'm have no idea how you don't see that.

Just because they have 1000 other problems doesn't make this any less stupid.

3.3 million dollars a year is a terrible contract. This is what it's come to? I mean, sure, it's more than it's worth but, christ, it's 3 million dollars a year. Excluding guys on rookie deals the average veteran WR makes between 1.5-2 mil probably. I'm really supposed to act like there's cause for concern that the Bears paid an average wide receiver an extra 1/150th of their salary cap than what he was actually worth?

I will boldly predict that the Eddie Royal deal with have no long-lasting repercussions on any deals the Bears want to sign at any point in the next ten years. That is a ridiculously stupidly low amount of money to consider it one of the worst deals of free agency, man.

[SKO]

I mean after all of their free agent deals so far the Bears are still sitting at goddamn 19.5 million dollars in cap space. Assuming your rookie class costs about 6 million that is 13 million in cap space left over with probably no more major deals left to give out. Alshon and Kyle Long are probably their only young players they'll need to extend in the next year, and Cutler's salary goes down in 2016, Forte's 8.5 mil is off the books after 2015....and the cap is probably going up another 6-10 million.

I am just failing to see any scenario where 3.3 million in dead money for Eddie Royal in 2016 or 2017 is going to be a problem if he turns out a bust.

[SKO]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

[PenFoe]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal. 

[Yeti]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal. 

+1

[SKO]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal. 

So we're just solely going off that it's more than he's worth in some perfect world, no? This is just the Bears gave him more money than he's probably worth in the abstract. Despite the fact that they have a healthy cap situation and hardly any players worth extending (and quite a few that are likely to get cut to create even more cap space), this is just "Eddie Royal is not worth this so Pen says this is bad."

In which case I have to think you think the Lester deal is terrible, because let's face it the last few years of that are terrible and teams should never overpay to fill a need even if they can afford to.

[R-V]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal. 

+1

I agree, repeating the same statement 3 or 4 times is a convincing argument.

[PenFoe]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal.  

So we're just solely going off that it's more than he's worth in some perfect world, no? This is just the Bears gave him more money than he's probably worth in the abstract. Despite the fact that they have a healthy cap situation and hardly any players worth extending (and quite a few that are likely to get cut to create even more cap space), this is just "Eddie Royal is not worth this so Pen says this is bad."

In which case I have to think you think the Lester deal is terrible, because let's face it the last few years of that are terrible and teams should never overpay to fill a need even if they can afford to.

"More money than he's probably worth in the abstract." Really?

Randall Cobb got $17 million guaranteed.  
Brian Hartline got $1.5 million guaranteed.  
Andre Johnson got something around $7.5 million guaranteed.
Harry Douglas' numbers haven't been reported, but supposedly in the 5-7 range.

Those are actual numbers for actual players who didn't get a ridiculous Eddie Royal contract.

[PenFoe]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal.  

So we're just solely going off that it's more than he's worth in some perfect world, no? This is just the Bears gave him more money than he's probably worth in the abstract. Despite the fact that they have a healthy cap situation and hardly any players worth extending (and quite a few that are likely to get cut to create even more cap space), this is just "Eddie Royal is not worth this so Pen says this is bad."

In which case I have to think you think the Lester deal is terrible, because let's face it the last few years of that are terrible and teams should never overpay to fill a need even if they can afford to.

"More money than he's probably worth in the abstract." Really?

Randall Cobb got $17 million guaranteed.  
Brian Hartline got $1.5 million guaranteed.  
Andre Johnson got something around $7.5 million guaranteed.
Harry Douglas' numbers haven't been reported, but supposedly in the 5-7 range.

Those are actual numbers for actual players who didn't get a ridiculous Eddie Royal contract.

But yeah, it makes total sense for the Bears to have gotten into a bidding war with the Chargers so they could grossly overpay for one of the easiest positions to fill.

[SKO]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal.  

So we're just solely going off that it's more than he's worth in some perfect world, no? This is just the Bears gave him more money than he's probably worth in the abstract. Despite the fact that they have a healthy cap situation and hardly any players worth extending (and quite a few that are likely to get cut to create even more cap space), this is just "Eddie Royal is not worth this so Pen says this is bad."

In which case I have to think you think the Lester deal is terrible, because let's face it the last few years of that are terrible and teams should never overpay to fill a need even if they can afford to.

"More money than he's probably worth in the abstract." Really?

Randall Cobb got $17 million guaranteed.  
Brian Hartline got $1.5 million guaranteed.  
Andre Johnson got something around $7.5 million guaranteed.
Harry Douglas' numbers haven't been reported, but supposedly in the 5-7 range.

Those are actual numbers for actual players who didn't get a ridiculous Eddie Royal contract.

Yeah, most of those guys got bigger deals overall though. I mean I get that it is guaranteed and that is the money that really matters in the NFL, but it's still 3 million a year. Eddie Royal got 15 million dollars total, over 3 years. It's extremly unusual for a deal to be 2/3rds guaranteed, but that's still not really a lot of money at all. It's hardly a crippling contract in any way. So he prioritized making sure that the average salary he got was fully guaranteed, fine. Either way it's no skin off of the Bears balls if they have to cut a guy next year and owe him a whopping 3 million for him to not play for them when the cap is north of $150 mil.

[SKO]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal.  

So we're just solely going off that it's more than he's worth in some perfect world, no? This is just the Bears gave him more money than he's probably worth in the abstract. Despite the fact that they have a healthy cap situation and hardly any players worth extending (and quite a few that are likely to get cut to create even more cap space), this is just "Eddie Royal is not worth this so Pen says this is bad."

In which case I have to think you think the Lester deal is terrible, because let's face it the last few years of that are terrible and teams should never overpay to fill a need even if they can afford to.

"More money than he's probably worth in the abstract." Really?

Randall Cobb got $17 million guaranteed.  
Brian Hartline got $1.5 million guaranteed.  
Andre Johnson got something around $7.5 million guaranteed.
Harry Douglas' numbers haven't been reported, but supposedly in the 5-7 range.

Those are actual numbers for actual players who didn't get a ridiculous Eddie Royal contract.

But yeah, it makes total sense for the Bears to have gotten into a bidding war with the Chargers so they could grossly overpay for one of the easiest positions to fill.

It does make total sense in that he fills the exact role they wanted, he's only 28, he has a history with their quarterback, and they had a fuck ton of cap room and this deal in no way can possibly hinder their financial future. Who cares what they pay him if they don't actually put themselves in a bind by paying him that?

The Bears have been a lot of things in my life, but the one thing they've never been is cap-strapped. Neither Angelo nor Emery (or more accurately Cliff Stein, the capologist who has been there all along) was ever willing to fuck the team's future financially with bad deals. This deal will mean absolutely nothing to the long-term cap situation of the Bears, so who. fucking. cares.

[PenFoe]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal.  

So we're just solely going off that it's more than he's worth in some perfect world, no? This is just the Bears gave him more money than he's probably worth in the abstract. Despite the fact that they have a healthy cap situation and hardly any players worth extending (and quite a few that are likely to get cut to create even more cap space), this is just "Eddie Royal is not worth this so Pen says this is bad."

In which case I have to think you think the Lester deal is terrible, because let's face it the last few years of that are terrible and teams should never overpay to fill a need even if they can afford to.

"More money than he's probably worth in the abstract." Really?

Randall Cobb got $17 million guaranteed.  
Brian Hartline got $1.5 million guaranteed.  
Andre Johnson got something around $7.5 million guaranteed.
Harry Douglas' numbers haven't been reported, but supposedly in the 5-7 range.

Those are actual numbers for actual players who didn't get a ridiculous Eddie Royal contract.

But yeah, it makes total sense for the Bears to have gotten into a bidding war with the Chargers so they could grossly overpay for one of the easiest positions to fill.

It does make total sense in that he fills the exact role they wanted, he's only 28, he has a history with their quarterback, and they had a fuck ton of cap room and this deal in no way can possibly hinder their financial future. Who cares what they pay him if they don't actually put themselves in a bind by paying him that?

The Bears have been a lot of things in my life, but the one thing they've never been is cap-strapped. Neither Angelo nor Emery (or more accurately Cliff Stein, the capologist who has been there all along) was ever willing to fuck the team's future financially with bad deals. This deal will mean absolutely nothing to the long-term cap situation of the Bears, so who. fucking. cares.

You're totally right.

[SKO]

The Dolphins gave Suh $60 million guaranteed, teams have traded actual draft picks for Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, and Sam Bradford, someone gave Josh McCown $7 million guaranteed just so he can ask Johnny Manziel nicely to stop drinking so heavily, and the Eagles just gave $24 million guaranteed to a 27 year old runningback with one healthy season who is coming off a workload almost historically guaranteed to mean he's probably screwed this year, yet Pen wants to say 3 million a year for an average slot receiver is ludicrous.

It's still a really stupid deal.  

So we're just solely going off that it's more than he's worth in some perfect world, no? This is just the Bears gave him more money than he's probably worth in the abstract. Despite the fact that they have a healthy cap situation and hardly any players worth extending (and quite a few that are likely to get cut to create even more cap space), this is just "Eddie Royal is not worth this so Pen says this is bad."

In which case I have to think you think the Lester deal is terrible, because let's face it the last few years of that are terrible and teams should never overpay to fill a need even if they can afford to.

"More money than he's probably worth in the abstract." Really?

Randall Cobb got $17 million guaranteed.  
Brian Hartline got $1.5 million guaranteed.  
Andre Johnson got something around $7.5 million guaranteed.
Harry Douglas' numbers haven't been reported, but supposedly in the 5-7 range.

Those are actual numbers for actual players who didn't get a ridiculous Eddie Royal contract.

But yeah, it makes total sense for the Bears to have gotten into a bidding war with the Chargers so they could grossly overpay for one of the easiest positions to fill.

It does make total sense in that he fills the exact role they wanted, he's only 28, he has a history with their quarterback, and they had a fuck ton of cap room and this deal in no way can possibly hinder their financial future. Who cares what they pay him if they don't actually put themselves in a bind by paying him that?

The Bears have been a lot of things in my life, but the one thing they've never been is cap-strapped. Neither Angelo nor Emery (or more accurately Cliff Stein, the capologist who has been there all along) was ever willing to fuck the team's future financially with bad deals. This deal will mean absolutely nothing to the long-term cap situation of the Bears, so who. fucking. cares.

You're totally right.

There's all of three years that are guaranteed in Jay's deal. He's the 11th highest cap hit among QBs this year, by next year once Luck/Newton/Wilson get extended he'll probably be 15th-17th, and after next year they can cut him without a dime of guaranteed money, and even including him being "overpaid" they had 30 million in cap space at the start of this year's free agency. Unless you're arguing that having Jay on the roster has kept them from signing/drafting all of the better free agent quarterbacks sitting around that don't actually exist, I'm not buying it.

Y'all can say Jay sucks as much as you want. He probably does, but he's also their best option at QB for the forseeable future, and his salary in no way prevents them from drafting a rookie QB this year or next year to replace him while Still ranking in the bottom half of the league in 2016 in terms of salary cap space committed to the QB position.

[CT III]

Pen's weird bitching about Eddie Royal's contract only makes sense to me if he reveals that he's one of those members of the McCaskey family who owns part of the team but won't get shit until they sell it.