2015: The Back To The Future Season

[ChuckD]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the league in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Maybe "I don't know how to feel" wasn't the right words...

"I don't know what I'm feeling" any better? As in winning hasn't been a thing in some time.

I was replying to Yeti, but I can take a crack at diagnosing what you're feeling.

Do you find your pants to be fitting more snugly around the zipper area?

[SKO]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

[Powdered Toast Man]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the league in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Maybe "I don't know how to feel" wasn't the right words...

"I don't know what I'm feeling" any better? As in winning hasn't been a thing in some time.

I was replying to Yeti, but I can take a crack at diagnosing what you're feeling.

Do you find your pants to be fitting more snugly around the zipper area?

I've definitely had to buy a bigger Dong Band, and thusly bigger pants.

[ChuckD]

Well, he's swung at 7 changeups/splitters when ahead in the count and missed on 4 of them. Among players who've swung at at least 5 CH/SPL in those situations, he's got the 8th highest miss percentage at 57.1% (lg avg is 36.1%).

Code Select Expand

Hitter Misses Swings Miss%
Bruce Jay 5 7 71.4%
Callaspo Alberto 4 6 66.7%
Howard Ryan 4 6 66.7%
Peguero Carlos 4 6 66.7%
Sands Jerry 4 6 66.7%
Walker Neil 4 6 66.7%
Pompey Dalton 10 16 62.5%



So, there's maybe something there, but sample size and what have you. I can give you a host of other stats about how he's awesome, though.

[R-V]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

[ChuckD]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

Sorry, interesting question, but I've got no way to aggregate on gametime temp.

[SKO]

Well, he's swung at 7 changeups/splitters when ahead in the count and missed on 4 of them. Among players who've swung at at least 5 CH/SPL in those situations, he's got the 8th highest miss percentage at 57.1% (lg avg is 36.1%).

Code Select Expand

Hitter Misses Swings Miss%
Bruce Jay 5 7 71.4%
Callaspo Alberto 4 6 66.7%
Howard Ryan 4 6 66.7%
Peguero Carlos 4 6 66.7%
Sands Jerry 4 6 66.7%
Walker Neil 4 6 66.7%
Pompey Dalton 10 16 62.5%



So, there's maybe something there, but sample size and what have you. I can give you a host of other stats about how he's awesome, though.

Yeah, I can't say I'm worried about it, and it's a common pitcher tactic in a situation where a young hitter would obviously be expecting a hittable fastball, I just feel like those 4 changeups were all boner killers. BONER KILLERS I SAY.

[SKO]

Well, he's swung at 7 changeups/splitters when ahead in the count and missed on 4 of them. Among players who've swung at at least 5 CH/SPL in those situations, he's got the 8th highest miss percentage at 57.1% (lg avg is 36.1%).

Code Select Expand

Hitter Misses Swings Miss%
Bruce Jay 5 7 71.4%
Callaspo Alberto 4 6 66.7%
Howard Ryan 4 6 66.7%
Peguero Carlos 4 6 66.7%
Sands Jerry 4 6 66.7%
Walker Neil 4 6 66.7%
Pompey Dalton 10 16 62.5%



So, there's maybe something there, but sample size and what have you. I can give you a host of other stats about how he's awesome, though.

Also I would like to take you up on this offer. Please tell me more.

[Yeti]

Well, he's swung at 7 changeups/splitters when ahead in the count and missed on 4 of them. Among players who've swung at at least 5 CH/SPL in those situations, he's got the 8th highest miss percentage at 57.1% (lg avg is 36.1%).

Code Select Expand

Hitter Misses Swings Miss%
Bruce Jay 5 7 71.4%
Callaspo Alberto 4 6 66.7%
Howard Ryan 4 6 66.7%
Peguero Carlos 4 6 66.7%
Sands Jerry 4 6 66.7%
Walker Neil 4 6 66.7%
Pompey Dalton 10 16 62.5%



So, there's maybe something there, but sample size and what have you. I can give you a host of other stats about how he's awesome, though.

Also I would like to take you up on this offer. Please tell me more.

*puts quarter in ChuckD Kris Bryant Machine*

[ChuckD]

He's seen 9 ch/spl in those situations (ahead in the count). 8 of them came with runners on, so there's something to your FEELING. All things being equal, I'd rather he be more aggressive with runners on.

On the three where he made contact:
He hit one deep to the LF/CF track that McCutcheon caught.
Another was a ROE when he cueballed a shot that Pittsbugh's 1B missed and allowed Fowler to score.
And the third was a 3-1 pitch against Locke with the bases loaded. Bounced it foul, but later drew a walk.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Well, he's swung at 7 changeups/splitters when ahead in the count and missed on 4 of them. Among players who've swung at at least 5 CH/SPL in those situations, he's got the 8th highest miss percentage at 57.1% (lg avg is 36.1%).

Code Select Expand

Hitter Misses Swings Miss%
Bruce Jay 5 7 71.4%
Callaspo Alberto 4 6 66.7%
Howard Ryan 4 6 66.7%
Peguero Carlos 4 6 66.7%
Sands Jerry 4 6 66.7%
Walker Neil 4 6 66.7%
Pompey Dalton 10 16 62.5%



So, there's maybe something there, but sample size and what have you. I can give you a host of other stats about how he's awesome, though.

Yeah, I can't say I'm worried about it, and it's a common pitcher tactic in a situation where a young hitter would obviously be expecting a hittable fastball, I just feel like those 4 changeups were all boner killers. BONER KILLERS I SAY.

I know what SKO was talking about...I also think the sample is small and the execution was excellent from the pitchers he's faced so far.

[R-V]

April has been a fun month and I can't help but think it could get even better from here:

- By mid-June or so we should see Wada, Grimm, La Stella and Ramirez back in the fold with Coke, Germen, Herrera and possibly even E-Jax taking their rightful places in Iowa or some other buttpuddle burg.
- Rizzo, Bryant and Soler will probably end up hitting 100+ dongs in total which means we get to watch about 96 more this summer.
- Lester's gonna figure his shit out real soon.
- It's not likely, but possible that either Baez figures his shit out or Schwarber's timetable gets accelerated and we get another cookie later this summer as Coghlan heads to the bench.

[Powdered Toast Man]

April has been a fun month and I can't help but think it could get even better from here:

- By mid-June or so we should see Wada, Grimm, La Stella and Ramirez back in the fold with Coke, Germen, Herrera and possibly even E-Jax taking their rightful places in Iowa or some other buttpuddle burg.
- Rizzo, Bryant and Soler will probably end up hitting 100+ dongs in total which means we get to watch about 96 more this summer.
- Lester's gonna figure his shit out real soon.
- It's not likely, but possible that either Baez figures his shit out or Schwarber's timetable gets accelerated and we get another cookie later this summer as Coghlan heads to the bench.

It's a little early yet for Schwarber, no?

[ChuckD]

Well, he's swung at 7 changeups/splitters when ahead in the count and missed on 4 of them. Among players who've swung at at least 5 CH/SPL in those situations, he's got the 8th highest miss percentage at 57.1% (lg avg is 36.1%).

Code Select Expand

Hitter Misses Swings Miss%
Bruce Jay 5 7 71.4%
Callaspo Alberto 4 6 66.7%
Howard Ryan 4 6 66.7%
Peguero Carlos 4 6 66.7%
Sands Jerry 4 6 66.7%
Walker Neil 4 6 66.7%
Pompey Dalton 10 16 62.5%



So, there's maybe something there, but sample size and what have you. I can give you a host of other stats about how he's awesome, though.

Also I would like to take you up on this offer. Please tell me more.

*puts quarter in ChuckD Kris Bryant Machine*

He's got a chase percentage of only 25.5% when behind in the count (i.e. when pitchers are more likely to waste a pitch out of the zone). That's in the bottom quartile (lg avg is 35.6% in those situations when excluding pitchers at the plate).

On a related note, he's got a great eye within 2K counts. With two strikes, he's got an OBP of .457 (4th among hitters this season -- lg avg is .248) but he's doing it by being selective with the 7th lowest swing rate (44.6% compared to lg avg of 60.4%) in those situations.

He's got the 8th lowest groundball percentage (5/20 = 25%) against starting pitchers since he's come up. Avg across MLB hitters is about twice that at 47%.

He's hitting .438 (7/16) with RISP plus another 6 walks for on OBP w/ RISP of .591 (t6th in MLB among players with at least 15 PAs in those situations).

Non-Kris Bryant reason for more positive:

The Cubs have seen the 3rd most pitches with RISP this season at 850. They trail only the Tigers (878) and Yankees (856), both of whom have played two more games. The Cubs are tops in the MLB in terms of P/PA with RISP at 3.95.

[SKO]

April has been a fun month and I can't help but think it could get even better from here:

- By mid-June or so we should see Wada, Grimm, La Stella and Ramirez back in the fold with Coke, Germen, Herrera and possibly even E-Jax taking their rightful places in Iowa or some other buttpuddle burg.
- Rizzo, Bryant and Soler will probably end up hitting 100+ dongs in total which means we get to watch about 96 more this summer.
- Lester's gonna figure his shit out real soon.
- It's not likely, but possible that either Baez figures his shit out or Schwarber's timetable gets accelerated and we get another cookie later this summer as Coghlan heads to the bench.

I kinda feel like Lester has already figured his shit out. 10 Ks, 1 BB vs the Reds last time. That he gave up 2 runs on 2 singles because he happened to give those singles up to Billy Hamilton shouldn't obscure what was a pretty good start, and as has been noted before his FIP and K:BB ratio this year are really good. The results should start lining up with the effort soon.

But yeah, much as the 2015 Cubs are probably gonna be the least good of the next few years worth of Cubs teams as Bryant/Soler/Russell all find their bearings, there's reason to believe this group that just won 60% of it's games in April is actually the worst incarnation of the 2015 Cubs we're going to see.