2015: The Back To The Future Season

[InternetApex]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

Sorry, interesting question, but I've got no way to aggregate on gametime temp.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/30218/jorge-soler-warms-up-in-the-cold

From Jesse Rogers.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, coming into Monday's game, Soler was hitting .136 when the temperature was under 51 degrees. Over 51 and Soler was hitting .313 with both his home runs and 8 of his 9 RBIs, including a 4-hit game in Pittsburgh on the only warm night of the series last week.

[SKO]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

Sorry, interesting question, but I've got no way to aggregate on gametime temp.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/30218/jorge-soler-warms-up-in-the-cold

From Jesse Rogers.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, coming into Monday's game, Soler was hitting .136 when the temperature was under 51 degrees. Over 51 and Soler was hitting .313 with both his home runs and 8 of his 9 RBIs, including a 4-hit game in Pittsburgh on the only warm night of the series last week.

Somewhere out there Dusty Baker feels validated.

[SKO]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

Sorry, interesting question, but I've got no way to aggregate on gametime temp.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/30218/jorge-soler-warms-up-in-the-cold

From Jesse Rogers.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, coming into Monday's game, Soler was hitting .136 when the temperature was under 51 degrees. Over 51 and Soler was hitting .313 with both his home runs and 8 of his 9 RBIs, including a 4-hit game in Pittsburgh on the only warm night of the series last week.

Supposed to be between 60-73 for all three games this weekend followed by four in St. Louis and a trip to climate-controlled Miller Park.

PREPARE FOR DINGERS.

[ChuckD]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

Sorry, interesting question, but I've got no way to aggregate on gametime temp.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/30218/jorge-soler-warms-up-in-the-cold

From Jesse Rogers.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, coming into Monday's game, Soler was hitting .136 when the temperature was under 51 degrees. Over 51 and Soler was hitting .313 with both his home runs and 8 of his 9 RBIs, including a 4-hit game in Pittsburgh on the only warm night of the series last week.

Somewhere out there Dusty Baker feels validated.

Soler's career day/night splits. Get fucked, Johnnie.

Code Select Expand

          Split  G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
          Night 29 29 125 111 18 35  8  0  7  24  0  0 11 33 .315 .376 .577 .953 64   5   1  0  2   0   1  .384   134
            Day 15 15  63  59  4 11  4  2  0   5  1  0  3 24 .186 .222 .322 .544 19   1   0  0  1   0   1  .306    34

[SKO]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

Sorry, interesting question, but I've got no way to aggregate on gametime temp.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/30218/jorge-soler-warms-up-in-the-cold

From Jesse Rogers.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, coming into Monday's game, Soler was hitting .136 when the temperature was under 51 degrees. Over 51 and Soler was hitting .313 with both his home runs and 8 of his 9 RBIs, including a 4-hit game in Pittsburgh on the only warm night of the series last week.

Somewhere out there Dusty Baker feels validated.

Soler's career day/night splits. Get fucked, Johnnie.

Code Select Expand

          Split  G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
          Night 29 29 125 111 18 35  8  0  7  24  0  0 11 33 .315 .376 .577 .953 64   5   1  0  2   0   1  .384   134
            Day 15 15  63  59  4 11  4  2  0   5  1  0  3 24 .186 .222 .322 .544 19   1   0  0  1   0   1  .306    34

Well great. Can Jayson Parks or whatever explain the vision problems that keep Soler from hitting in broad fucking daylight? Good work, Epstink. Sign the guy who can't hit in the sun to the team that plays the most day games in the majors.

[Quality Start Machine]

A winning month of April...I don't know what to feel.

Happy is a good start.

Yea, but we have David Ross, a failed first round draft pick hurt in AA, and no where to put Vogelbach. Rough times

Yeah, but the staff has the top K/BB rate in the majors at 4.4, Kris Bryant has an OPS of 1.818 against pitches that are 94+ mph (lg. avg. is .696), Castro's hitting .478 (11/23) against non-fastballs the past two weeks (lg. avg. is .229), and the Cubs actually lead the MLB in drawing leadoff walks at 11.6% (20 BB in 173 PAs; lg. avg. is 7.3%).

Don't try and temper my positive with your insincerity.

Is there data supporting the fact that Bryant has sucked vs. changeups so far, though? Because I feel like everytime he gets in a 2-1 or 3-1 count and I gear up for boner time the pitcher throws him a changeup and Kris swings over it and my boner goes away a bit.

He's still beautiful and perfect in every way but I'm just waiting for him to prepare for the changeup in that situation and take some 85 MPH offering off the concrete that used to be the bleachers.

While we're visiting ChuckD's Emporium of Interesting Stats, is there any way to look up Soler's numbers based on gametime temperature? It FEELS to me like his OPS is 7,000 on 60+ degree days and 12 on colder days, but my gut may be a bit off on that. The reason I ask of course is because he is Latin and the cold weather activates his Lazy Gland.

Sorry, interesting question, but I've got no way to aggregate on gametime temp.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/30218/jorge-soler-warms-up-in-the-cold

From Jesse Rogers.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, coming into Monday's game, Soler was hitting .136 when the temperature was under 51 degrees. Over 51 and Soler was hitting .313 with both his home runs and 8 of his 9 RBIs, including a 4-hit game in Pittsburgh on the only warm night of the series last week.

Somewhere out there Dusty Baker feels validated.

Soler's career day/night splits. Get fucked, Johnnie.

Code Select Expand

          Split  G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+
          Night 29 29 125 111 18 35  8  0  7  24  0  0 11 33 .315 .376 .577 .953 64   5   1  0  2   0   1  .384   134
            Day 15 15  63  59  4 11  4  2  0   5  1  0  3 24 .186 .222 .322 .544 19   1   0  0  1   0   1  .306    34

Well great. Can Jayson Parks or whatever explain the vision problems that keep Soler from hitting in broad fucking daylight? Good work, Epstink. Sign the guy who can't hit in the sun to the team that plays the most day games in the majors.

Best thing Soler ever did was get away from that damn Cuban sun.

[Slaky]

I declare this thread awesome

[Quality Start Machine]

Joe Maddon had the Cubs travel to St. Louis wearing Blackhawks sweaters.

Joe Maddon is a beautiful man.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Thankfully, Justin Grimm will go on a rehab assignment at AAA. Hopefully it all goes well.

[R-V]

Last night no doubt sucked ass, but in spite of the Grimm & Ramirez injuries, the bullpen has actually been pretty good.

8th in K/9
5th in BB/9
7th in HR/9
5th in FIP

Unfortunately those promising numbers are offset by their rank of 26th in LOB rate (they are only stranding 69% of inherited runners, compared to the motherfucking Cardinals who rank 2nd at a rigoddamndiculous 88%. I'll leave it to brains larger than mine to explain if this is an actual skill or just BABIP-related luck.

[InternetApex]

Last night no doubt sucked ass, but in spite of the Grimm & Ramirez injuries, the bullpen has actually been pretty good.

8th in K/9
5th in BB/9
7th in HR/9
5th in FIP

Unfortunately those promising numbers are offset by their rank of 26th in LOB rate (they are only stranding 69% of inherited runners, compared to the motherfucking Cardinals who rank 2nd at a rigoddamndiculous 88%. I'll leave it to brains larger than mine to explain if this is an actual skill or just BABIP-related luck.

Where are the Fowl in terms of K/9?

[R-V]

Last night no doubt sucked ass, but in spite of the Grimm & Ramirez injuries, the bullpen has actually been pretty good.

8th in K/9
5th in BB/9
7th in HR/9
5th in FIP

Unfortunately those promising numbers are offset by their rank of 26th in LOB rate (they are only stranding 69% of inherited runners, compared to the motherfucking Cardinals who rank 2nd at a rigoddamndiculous 88%. I'll leave it to brains larger than mine to explain if this is an actual skill or just BABIP-related luck.

Where are the Fowl in terms of K/9?

Same ranks for Cardinals pen:

12th in K/9
13th in BB/9
5th in HR/9
7th in FIP

So they're objectively worse in the measures that are good indicators of future success, yet their bullpen ERA is a full two runs lower than the Cubs, because of that horseshit strand rate. Those hillbilly dipshits are due for some regression.

[SKO]

Last night no doubt sucked ass, but in spite of the Grimm & Ramirez injuries, the bullpen has actually been pretty good.

8th in K/9
5th in BB/9
7th in HR/9
5th in FIP

Unfortunately those promising numbers are offset by their rank of 26th in LOB rate (they are only stranding 69% of inherited runners, compared to the motherfucking Cardinals who rank 2nd at a rigoddamndiculous 88%. I'll leave it to brains larger than mine to explain if this is an actual skill or just BABIP-related luck.

Where are the Fowl in terms of K/9?

Same ranks for Cardinals pen:

12th in K/9
13th in BB/9
5th in HR/9
7th in FIP

So they're objectively worse in the measures that are good indicators of future success, yet their bullpen ERA is a full two runs lower than the Cubs, because of that horseshit strand rate. Those hillbilly dipshits are due for some regression.

There is zero point to ever hoping the Cardinals will regress to the mean. Remember last year when they had the run-differential of an 83 win team and won 91 games? That was fucking fun.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Though it puts me in the double-edged position of agreeing with Chuck while inviting scorn from Andy, I think Starlin Castro will, and should be--for the right deal, which I can only trust it would be--dealt at some point.

I'd still be terrified to trade him for most pitchers because, well, pitchers.

When La Stella gets back and/or Baez returns, time to get Hamels*?

*(I know he got lit up a second time recently, this wouldn't happen until June at the earliest though...can see how it plays out)

I think this is true of just about any non-superstar that you watch on a consistent basis for 5+ years, and I think this was mentioned yesterday, but I just don't get excited when Castro comes to the plate. There isn't the curiosity of watching a Bryant or Russell to understand their approach and watch them develop, or the anticipation of seeing Soler hit a laser beam, or the certainty that Rizzo will have a better judgment of the strike zone than the ump. He's just a guy who when he's at the top of his game hits a bunch of singles with a bit of pop. And defensively he has improved a lot but I know there isn't the potential for a holy shit moment like there is when Russell is involved.

Again, a lot of this is just being excited/distracted by the shiny new thing, but I don't think I'll have too many strong feels if they deal him.

To me, he's beginning to stand out from everyone else in the lineup with his approach at the plate.  From Fowler on down, these guys work the count--even Russell's already learning to lay off the outside junk on occasion. Now one of Castro's strengths is simply his ability to make contact on all kinds of pitches so when he chases out of the zone he's not as likely to miss as much as others would, but he's also no more likely to get a hit than he is to roll a grounder somewhere it seems.  This approach still yields a lot of hits over time, but I'm beginning to wonder if it's something that Epstein and Co. don't really value as much as other front offices (Ruben Amaro *cough*).  The latter part is speculation but the idea has sort of crept up on me while I watch this team cycle through the lineup.  He just doesn't seem to fit IMO.

[SKO]

Though it puts me in the double-edged position of agreeing with Chuck while inviting scorn from Andy, I think Starlin Castro will, and should be--for the right deal, which I can only trust it would be--dealt at some point.

I'd still be terrified to trade him for most pitchers because, well, pitchers.

When La Stella gets back and/or Baez returns, time to get Hamels*?

*(I know he got lit up a second time recently, this wouldn't happen until June at the earliest though...can see how it plays out)

I think this is true of just about any non-superstar that you watch on a consistent basis for 5+ years, and I think this was mentioned yesterday, but I just don't get excited when Castro comes to the plate. There isn't the curiosity of watching a Bryant or Russell to understand their approach and watch them develop, or the anticipation of seeing Soler hit a laser beam, or the certainty that Rizzo will have a better judgment of the strike zone than the ump. He's just a guy who when he's at the top of his game hits a bunch of singles with a bit of pop. And defensively he has improved a lot but I know there isn't the potential for a holy shit moment like there is when Russell is involved.

Again, a lot of this is just being excited/distracted by the shiny new thing, but I don't think I'll have too many strong feels if they deal him.

To me, he's beginning to stand out from everyone else in the lineup with his approach at the plate.  From Fowler on down, these guys work the count--even Russell's already learning to lay off the outside junk on occasion. Now one of Castro's strengths is simply his ability to make contact on all kinds of pitches so when he chases out of the zone he's not as likely to miss as much as others would, but he's also no more likely to get a hit than he is to roll a grounder somewhere it seems.  This approach still yields a lot of hits over time, but I'm beginning to wonder if it's something that Epstein and Co. don't really value as much as other front offices (Ruben Amaro *cough*).  The latter part is speculation but the idea has sort of crept up on me while I watch this team cycle through the lineup.  He just doesn't seem to fit IMO.

I think Epstein and Hoyer don't exactly need everyone in the lineup to be a patient OBP machine. There's a definite value to Starlin Castro in a lineup that features a lot of low-contact guys. That said, if Javy Baez actually figures shit out and can translate that power to the big leagues on any kind of consistent basis it'd be hard to say that's not a more valuable player than Starlin Castro.

I guess what I'm saying is if Starlin goes it'll be because Javy shows enough to push him out the door, not simply because Theo and Jed just don't like his style of play.