2015: The Back To The Future Season

[Tonker]

This is what's funny about this team - this is the 2nd (maybe 3rd - too lazy too look it up) year that they've had a top-10ish pitching staff and a not-good offensive team, yet all anyone wants to talk about is how the organization is thin on pitching. At some point this Sleeping Giant that is the Cubs offense needs to actually wake up and hit the piss out of the ball.

I just don't think anyone wants to criticize Russell or Bryant or Soler if they're not hitting because you just have to be patient there, Rizzo's never stopped hitting, Fowler is what he is (a perfectly average-ish major league center fielder), and certain people get called twats if they complain about "low hanging fruit in the lineup" like Chris Coghlan and David Ross, and it's not like we haven't wasted a few thousand words (most of them stupid) on Starlin Castro.

So in short I guess we tell that slapdick Montero to pick it up. We're counting on you, Miggy.

In the interests of accuracy, I called you a twat because you were being a twat about umpires, not because you were being a twat about Coghlan and Ross.

[SKO]

This is what's funny about this team - this is the 2nd (maybe 3rd - too lazy too look it up) year that they've had a top-10ish pitching staff and a not-good offensive team, yet all anyone wants to talk about is how the organization is thin on pitching. At some point this Sleeping Giant that is the Cubs offense needs to actually wake up and hit the piss out of the ball.

I just don't think anyone wants to criticize Russell or Bryant or Soler if they're not hitting because you just have to be patient there, Rizzo's never stopped hitting, Fowler is what he is (a perfectly average-ish major league center fielder), and certain people get called twats if they complain about "low hanging fruit in the lineup" like Chris Coghlan and David Ross, and it's not like we haven't wasted a few thousand words (most of them stupid) on Starlin Castro.

So in short I guess we tell that slapdick Montero to pick it up. We're counting on you, Miggy.

In the interests of accuracy, I called you a twat because you were being a twat about umpires, not because you were being a twat about Coghlan and Ross.

Oh sure, that was the boiling point, but it was the inevitable conclusion to general twattish behavior, largely about Desipio Heroes Coghlan and Ross. Despite what Pen says I'm definitely over it and I don't still write about how much it hurt me in my feelings journal.

[SKO]

Honestly Lester has pitched about as well as I expected Hammel to pitch going into this season and Hammel has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so it evens out. Score some fucking runs.

Good advice. Good work, me.

[R-V]

*taps mic*

*clears throat*

There's a lot of talk of adding bullpen arms and another starter, but why is no one talking about the offense? Or is that happening and I've missed it? Here's their MLB ranks:

Runs: 23rd
OPS: 17th
oWAR: 20th
wRC+: 23rd

These are actually worse than I thought. I figured their production was roughly average or a bit better. Guess not. And on the non-numbers side of things, my gut feeling on anyone besides Bryant and Rizzo is pretty meh. Obviously they can't have a lineup of just Rizzos and Bryants. But maybe they should consider calling up the organization's likely-third-best hitter and getting him in the lineup?

Maybe it's just that left field seems like the only place where they could make an improvement, so there's just not much to discuss.

I like to call this post the "reverse Huey." Thanks, Eli.

[Eli]

*taps mic*

*clears throat*

There's a lot of talk of adding bullpen arms and another starter, but why is no one talking about the offense? Or is that happening and I've missed it? Here's their MLB ranks:

Runs: 23rd
OPS: 17th
oWAR: 20th
wRC+: 23rd

These are actually worse than I thought. I figured their production was roughly average or a bit better. Guess not. And on the non-numbers side of things, my gut feeling on anyone besides Bryant and Rizzo is pretty meh. Obviously they can't have a lineup of just Rizzos and Bryants. But maybe they should consider calling up the organization's likely-third-best hitter and getting him in the lineup?

Maybe it's just that left field seems like the only place where they could make an improvement, so there's just not much to discuss.

I like to call this post the "reverse Huey." Thanks, Eli.

I was going to update the numbers after last night but they haven't changed drastically. YET.

[R-V]

*taps mic*

*clears throat*

There's a lot of talk of adding bullpen arms and another starter, but why is no one talking about the offense? Or is that happening and I've missed it? Here's their MLB ranks:

Runs: 23rd
OPS: 17th
oWAR: 20th
wRC+: 23rd

These are actually worse than I thought. I figured their production was roughly average or a bit better. Guess not. And on the non-numbers side of things, my gut feeling on anyone besides Bryant and Rizzo is pretty meh. Obviously they can't have a lineup of just Rizzos and Bryants. But maybe they should consider calling up the organization's likely-third-best hitter and getting him in the lineup?

Maybe it's just that left field seems like the only place where they could make an improvement, so there's just not much to discuss.

I like to call this post the "reverse Huey." Thanks, Eli.

I was going to update the numbers after last night but they haven't changed drastically. YET.

Another national baseball writer responds to Baseball Thought Leader Fuzzbeed Eli.

It's June 15, which means it's probably too early to do any "If the playoffs were to start today" exercises. But guess what. We're doing it anyway: If the playoffs were to start today, the two teams that strike out the most would both make the playoffs. One is the Astros, who lead the AL West. The other is the Cubs, who occupy the National League's second wild-card spot. Both of those teams have fanned just short of 25 percent of the time.

The Cubs' no-contact ways don't end there, either. The North Siders also own baseball's third-highest walk rate, drawing free passes 9 percent of the time. Combine those two numbers and you have a team that ends plate appearances without making contact more than one-third of the time — the highest mark in the majors.

That approach carries with it a hidden benefit: On the way to all of those strikeouts and walks, the Cubbies have worked an inordinate number of deep counts. According to ESPN research, they've worked the count to 3-2 a total of 358 times this season, also the highest such total in MLB. Factor in pitchers hitting — the Jon Lester–led Cubs are the second-worst group of pitcher-hitters in the NL — and all of those full counts become even more impressive.

The leader of the no-contact brigade is Kris Bryant. The phenom third baseman has struck out in 29.7 percent, and walked in 14 percent, of his plate appearances this season. That's right in line with his minor league numbers, including a 274-plate-appearance stint at Triple-A last year that saw him strike out or walk 41 percent of the time. Other regulars with lofty no-contact numbers include Addison Russell (38.9 percent, though he's also striking out four and a half times more often than he's walking), Miguel Montero (36.1 percent), Dexter Fowler (31.4 percent), and the currently injured Jorge Soler (39.4 percent).

Outside of producing some slow and occasionally tedious baseball, all of these pitches tire out opposing starters and get the Cubs to opposing bullpens more quickly. Even in an era when many teams trot out multiple relievers who can touch the high 90s with their fastballs, consistently facing fourth-tier bullpen arms in the fifth and sixth innings will generally produce positive results.

From their pitching staff ranking among the game's top strikeout machines to the simple fact that they have more talent now with Bryant, Montero, Russell, Lester, and additional new arrivals, there are plenty of other reasons why the Cubs are a much better team in 2015 than they were in 2014. But if you're looking for the kind of subtle advantage that could raise a team to another plane of success, much like the '90 Yankees and the '00s Red Sox, it's Chicago's ability to keep grinding out at-bats. If you see a pitcher with an exasperated look on his face this season, there's a decent chance it's because he's trying to navigate the very frustrating — and very effective, once you strip out their horrendous-hitting pitchers — Cubs lineup.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

*taps mic*

*clears throat*

There's a lot of talk of adding bullpen arms and another starter, but why is no one talking about the offense? Or is that happening and I've missed it? Here's their MLB ranks:

Runs: 23rd
OPS: 17th
oWAR: 20th
wRC+: 23rd

These are actually worse than I thought. I figured their production was roughly average or a bit better. Guess not. And on the non-numbers side of things, my gut feeling on anyone besides Bryant and Rizzo is pretty meh. Obviously they can't have a lineup of just Rizzos and Bryants. But maybe they should consider calling up the organization's likely-third-best hitter and getting him in the lineup?

Maybe it's just that left field seems like the only place where they could make an improvement, so there's just not much to discuss.

I like to call this post the "reverse Huey." Thanks, Eli.

I was going to update the numbers after last night but they haven't changed drastically. YET.

Another national baseball writer responds to Baseball Thought Leader Fuzzbeed Eli.

It's June 15, which means it's probably too early to do any "If the playoffs were to start today" exercises. But guess what. We're doing it anyway: If the playoffs were to start today, the two teams that strike out the most would both make the playoffs. One is the Astros, who lead the AL West. The other is the Cubs, who occupy the National League's second wild-card spot. Both of those teams have fanned just short of 25 percent of the time.

The Cubs' no-contact ways don't end there, either. The North Siders also own baseball's third-highest walk rate, drawing free passes 9 percent of the time. Combine those two numbers and you have a team that ends plate appearances without making contact more than one-third of the time — the highest mark in the majors.

That approach carries with it a hidden benefit: On the way to all of those strikeouts and walks, the Cubbies have worked an inordinate number of deep counts. According to ESPN research, they've worked the count to 3-2 a total of 358 times this season, also the highest such total in MLB. Factor in pitchers hitting — the Jon Lester–led Cubs are the second-worst group of pitcher-hitters in the NL — and all of those full counts become even more impressive.

The leader of the no-contact brigade is Kris Bryant. The phenom third baseman has struck out in 29.7 percent, and walked in 14 percent, of his plate appearances this season. That's right in line with his minor league numbers, including a 274-plate-appearance stint at Triple-A last year that saw him strike out or walk 41 percent of the time. Other regulars with lofty no-contact numbers include Addison Russell (38.9 percent, though he's also striking out four and a half times more often than he's walking), Miguel Montero (36.1 percent), Dexter Fowler (31.4 percent), and the currently injured Jorge Soler (39.4 percent).

Outside of producing some slow and occasionally tedious baseball, all of these pitches tire out opposing starters and get the Cubs to opposing bullpens more quickly. Even in an era when many teams trot out multiple relievers who can touch the high 90s with their fastballs, consistently facing fourth-tier bullpen arms in the fifth and sixth innings will generally produce positive results.

From their pitching staff ranking among the game's top strikeout machines to the simple fact that they have more talent now with Bryant, Montero, Russell, Lester, and additional new arrivals, there are plenty of other reasons why the Cubs are a much better team in 2015 than they were in 2014. But if you're looking for the kind of subtle advantage that could raise a team to another plane of success, much like the '90 Yankees and the '00s Red Sox, it's Chicago's ability to keep grinding out at-bats. If you see a pitcher with an exasperated look on his face this season, there's a decent chance it's because he's trying to navigate the very frustrating — and very effective, once you strip out their horrendous-hitting pitchers — Cubs lineup.

That's one of the things I've noticed and appreciated.  Even good pitchers struggle to make it through 6 innings in under 100 pitches against this team.

[Eli]

Another national baseball writer responds to Baseball Thought Leader Fuzzbeed Eli.

I don't want to say I invented baseball conversation on the Internet, but I basically did.

[R-V]

Also of note from that article is how godawful Cubs pitchers have been at hitting. With Arrieta, Wood and Hammel in the rotation to start the year I expected they'd be better than average. But they're next to last in the NL.

Bring on the Designated Vogelbach, please.

[Eli]

Also of note from that article is how godawful Cubs pitchers have been at hitting. With Arrieta, Wood and Hammel in the rotation to start the year I expected they'd be better than average. But they're next to last in the NL.

Bring on the Designated Vogelbach, please.

Can ChuckD tell us how much different the team's overall offensive numbers would be if the Cubs were just middle of the pack in pitcher offense?

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Also of note from that article is how godawful Cubs pitchers have been at hitting. With Arrieta, Wood and Hammel in the rotation to start the year I expected they'd be better than average. But they're next to last in the NL.

Bring on the Designated Vogelbach, please.

Can ChuckD tell us how much different the team's overall offensive numbers would be if the Cubs were just middle of the pack in pitcher offense?

Or if their pitchers were batting 9th instead of 8th?

[Eli]

Also of note from that article is how godawful Cubs pitchers have been at hitting. With Arrieta, Wood and Hammel in the rotation to start the year I expected they'd be better than average. But they're next to last in the NL.

Bring on the Designated Vogelbach, please.

Can ChuckD tell us how much different the team's overall offensive numbers would be if the Cubs were just middle of the pack in pitcher offense?

This is overly simplistic, but I can't imagine it'd make an enormous difference. The Cubs' pitchers have been on base 15 times (11 singles, 2 doubles, 2 walks). Give them the median OBP among NL pitchers and that would jump to 21 times on base. So an extra 6 times on base means, what, potentially a run or two? That'd be nice but it wouldn't turn the Cubs into a top-10 offense or anything.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Also of note from that article is how godawful Cubs pitchers have been at hitting. With Arrieta, Wood and Hammel in the rotation to start the year I expected they'd be better than average. But they're next to last in the NL.

Bring on the Designated Vogelbach, please.

Can ChuckD tell us how much different the team's overall offensive numbers would be if the Cubs were just middle of the pack in pitcher offense?

This is overly simplistic, but I can't imagine it'd make an enormous difference. The Cubs' pitchers have been on base 15 times (11 singles, 2 doubles, 2 walks). Give them the median OBP among NL pitchers and that would jump to 21 times on base. So an extra 6 times on base means, what, potentially a run or two? That'd be nice but it wouldn't turn the Cubs into a top-10 offense or anything.

Did you quote yourself instead of me?

[Eli]

Also of note from that article is how godawful Cubs pitchers have been at hitting. With Arrieta, Wood and Hammel in the rotation to start the year I expected they'd be better than average. But they're next to last in the NL.

Bring on the Designated Vogelbach, please.

Can ChuckD tell us how much different the team's overall offensive numbers would be if the Cubs were just middle of the pack in pitcher offense?

This is overly simplistic, but I can't imagine it'd make an enormous difference. The Cubs' pitchers have been on base 15 times (11 singles, 2 doubles, 2 walks). Give them the median OBP among NL pitchers and that would jump to 21 times on base. So an extra 6 times on base means, what, potentially a run or two? That'd be nice but it wouldn't turn the Cubs into a top-10 offense or anything.

Did you quote yourself instead of me?

I did, because I was answering my own question.

[R-V]

Also of note from that article is how godawful Cubs pitchers have been at hitting. With Arrieta, Wood and Hammel in the rotation to start the year I expected they'd be better than average. But they're next to last in the NL.

Bring on the Designated Vogelbach, please.

Can ChuckD tell us how much different the team's overall offensive numbers would be if the Cubs were just middle of the pack in pitcher offense?

Or if their pitchers were batting 9th instead of 8th?

I have no idea how to account for sequencing, but just looking at plate appearances, the #8 hitters for the Cubs have 9 more plate appearances than the #9 hitters so far. That's about 24 projected over the full season, but that would go down quite a bit based on pinch hitting. So purely from the standpoint of times up at the plate the two slots are pretty close.