2015 General MLB Thread

[SKO]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions. 

A one-game playoff against the Cardinals would probably kill us all.

Would it be worse than an NLDS against the Cardinals? I've been weighing this for a while. My answer is : I will die either way.

[Tonker]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions. 

Go on then, I'll bite... why do we expect the Tards to regress?

STL RS: 440
STL RA: 319
STL W-L: 71-40
STL XW-L: 71-40

CHN RS: 432
CHN RA: 413
CHN W-L: 62-48
CHN XW-L: 57-53

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions. 

Go on then, I'll bite... why do we expect the Tards to regress?

STL RS: 440
STL RA: 319
STL W-L: 71-40
STL XW-L: 71-40

CHN RS: 432
CHN RA: 413
CHN W-L: 62-48
CHN XW-L: 57-53

The Runs Allowed seems insane.

[SKO]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions.  

Go on then, I'll bite... why do we expect the Tards to regress?

STL RS: 440
STL RA: 319
STL W-L: 71-40
STL XW-L: 71-40

CHN RS: 432
CHN RA: 413
CHN W-L: 62-48
CHN XW-L: 57-53

Well besides us chastising you again for why simple Pythagorean W-L is still a flawed way to measure a team, I think the main argument is that their team ERA is so unbelievably low that there has to be an uptick at some point. Every starter they have has outperformed projections to some extent, and they're getting a ridiculously high strand rate from their bullpen, where many guys are outperforming their FIPs and peripherals  by a significant margin.

If it were any other team I would feel confident projecting regression in a number of areas. It's the Cardinals though, so it's not going to happen and if it were I'm pretty sure it already would have happened by now. This is the team that hit like .330 with RISP for an entire season or whatever. They significantly outperformed every metric last year while winning 91 games. The laws don't apply to them. Give up the ghost.

[InternetApex]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions.  

Go on then, I'll bite... why do we expect the Tards to regress?

STL RS: 440
STL RA: 319
STL W-L: 71-40
STL XW-L: 71-40

CHN RS: 432
CHN RA: 413
CHN W-L: 62-48
CHN XW-L: 57-53

Well besides us chastising you again for why simple Pythagorean W-L is still a flawed way to measure a team, I think the main argument is that their team ERA is so unbelievably low that there has to be an uptick at some point. Every starter they have has outperformed projections to some extent, and they're getting a ridiculously high strand rate from their bullpen, where many guys are outperforming their FIPs and peripherals  by a significant margin.

If it were any other team I would feel confident projecting regression in a number of areas. It's the Cardinals though, so it's not going to happen and if it were I'm pretty sure it already would have happened by now. This is the team that hit like .330 with RISP for an entire season or whatever. They significantly outperformed every metric last year while winning 91 games. The laws don't apply to them. Give up the ghost.

Great post.

[Tonker]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions.  

Go on then, I'll bite... why do we expect the Tards to regress?

STL RS: 440
STL RA: 319
STL W-L: 71-40
STL XW-L: 71-40

CHN RS: 432
CHN RA: 413
CHN W-L: 62-48
CHN XW-L: 57-53

Well besides us chastising you again for why simple Pythagorean W-L is still a flawed way to measure a team, I think the main argument is that their team ERA is so unbelievably low that there has to be an uptick at some point. Every starter they have has outperformed projections to some extent, and they're getting a ridiculously high strand rate from their bullpen, where many guys are outperforming their FIPs and peripherals  by a significant margin.

If it were any other team I would feel confident projecting regression in a number of areas. It's the Cardinals though, so it's not going to happen and if it were I'm pretty sure it already would have happened by now. This is the team that hit like .330 with RISP for an entire season or whatever. They significantly outperformed every metric last year while winning 91 games. The laws don't apply to them. Give up the ghost.

Whatever you think about XW-L, teams that routinely score more than they concede, win more than they lose.  If a team has scored way more runs than they've allowed over 110 games, then you have to acknowledge (as, indeed, you have) the possibility - probability, even - that they will continue to do so.  If you're expecting a regression based on projections then I would say that, at this point of the season, you may need to re-examine your projections.

[SKO]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions.  

Go on then, I'll bite... why do we expect the Tards to regress?

STL RS: 440
STL RA: 319
STL W-L: 71-40
STL XW-L: 71-40

CHN RS: 432
CHN RA: 413
CHN W-L: 62-48
CHN XW-L: 57-53

Well besides us chastising you again for why simple Pythagorean W-L is still a flawed way to measure a team, I think the main argument is that their team ERA is so unbelievably low that there has to be an uptick at some point. Every starter they have has outperformed projections to some extent, and they're getting a ridiculously high strand rate from their bullpen, where many guys are outperforming their FIPs and peripherals  by a significant margin.

If it were any other team I would feel confident projecting regression in a number of areas. It's the Cardinals though, so it's not going to happen and if it were I'm pretty sure it already would have happened by now. This is the team that hit like .330 with RISP for an entire season or whatever. They significantly outperformed every metric last year while winning 91 games. The laws don't apply to them. Give up the ghost.

Whatever you think about XW-L, teams that routinely score more than they concede, win more than they lose.  If a team has scored way more runs than they've allowed over 110 games, then you have to acknowledge (as, indeed, you have) the possibility - probability, even - that they will continue to do so.  If you're expecting a regression based on projections then I would say that, at this point of the season, you may need to re-examine your projections.

Yeah, and like I said, I'm not expecting it. Just pointing out that in all likelihood they probably should have allowed more runs than they have to this point, which would skew their XWL, but after all this time there's no real reason to expect it to change because fuck them.

[InternetApex]

Thanks a lot, Dodger bullpen. Was it really too much to ask that you assholes win one measly game in Pittsburgh?

Not for nothing, but I'm okay if Pittsburgh does the heavy lifting to pass the the St. Louis Flailing Regressions.  

Go on then, I'll bite... why do we expect the Tards to regress?

STL RS: 440
STL RA: 319
STL W-L: 71-40
STL XW-L: 71-40

CHN RS: 432
CHN RA: 413
CHN W-L: 62-48
CHN XW-L: 57-53

Well besides us chastising you again for why simple Pythagorean W-L is still a flawed way to measure a team, I think the main argument is that their team ERA is so unbelievably low that there has to be an uptick at some point. Every starter they have has outperformed projections to some extent, and they're getting a ridiculously high strand rate from their bullpen, where many guys are outperforming their FIPs and peripherals  by a significant margin.

If it were any other team I would feel confident projecting regression in a number of areas. It's the Cardinals though, so it's not going to happen and if it were I'm pretty sure it already would have happened by now. This is the team that hit like .330 with RISP for an entire season or whatever. They significantly outperformed every metric last year while winning 91 games. The laws don't apply to them. Give up the ghost.

Whatever you think about XW-L, teams that routinely score more than they concede, win more than they lose.  If a team has scored way more runs than they've allowed over 110 games, then you have to acknowledge (as, indeed, you have) the possibility - probability, even - that they will continue to do so.  If you're expecting a regression based on projections then I would say that, at this point of the season, you may need to re-examine your projections.

Which is what SKO did when he examined the career numbers posted by several key contributors and noted a slew of outliers. His determination was that they're all powered by syringes filled with Satan's blood and resistence at this point was indeed futile. But October is a cruel bitch. And she'll have her way with whoever she pleases, Satan notwithstanding.

[Tonker]

Jesus, the Brewers really, really fucking suck.

EDIT: Lind hit one out at the exact second of my hitting "post", here.  I'll shut the fuck up.

[SKO]

This article is humorous: http://www.sbnation.com/2015/8/21/9188267/brent-mayne-pitching-rockies-braves and I miss Humidor-and-Steroids Era Coors Field like crazy. With the Rockies being utterly terrible I really see no reason for them not to tear it up and just go back to the old days.

[Saul Goodman]

Nice choice, Dave?

Thus it makes sense to look at past connections when assembling a list of GM candidates Dombrowski may consider in Boston.

...

1. Jim Hendry. The former Cubs GM, now a special assistant to Brian Cashman with the Yankees, has a long association with Dombrowski, beginning in Florida, where he was hired out of Creighton University by Marlins scouting director Gary Hughes (now with the Red Sox) to be a scout and quickly became a Dombrowski favorite.

From the outset, Dombrowski groomed Hendry for bigger things, exposing him to a variety of roles; scout, minor league manager, front-office duties. By 1995, Hendry had moved on to the Cubs, hired as director of player development and in 2002, promoted to GM. Hendry hired Dusty Baker as manager and took the Cubs to within five outs of the World Series in 2003 (the Bartman year) [Editor's note: Fuck you], and was the first Cubs GM to have teams make the postseason three times, the Cubs returning in 2007 and '08. Hendry's later years in Chicago were marred by the turmoil surrounding the sale of the Chicago Tribune, which was in a win-now mode that led to Alfonso Soriano signing an eight-year, $136 million deal, then turned 180 degrees under Sam Zell, who severely restricted Hendry's capacity to make moves. Hendry was eventually fired by new Cubs owner Tom Ricketts, but was such a good soldier that he acceded to Ricketts' request to assist with signing the team's draft choices before stepping down.

Hendry has great communication skills, is known for hiring top talent evaluators and trusting their judgment, and taking care of his people, inspiring loyalty. At 60 years old, he is certainly young enough for a second crack at GM and clearly would have Dombrowski's trust.

[SKO]

This Astros-Royals game is amazing

[CubFaninHydePark]

This Astros-Royals game is amazing

Louis Valbuena taking Cueto deep, also amazing.

[Quality Start Machine]

That Texas/Toronto game was...something.

[CubFaninHydePark]

That Texas/Toronto game was...something.

It left me wanting a Schwarber/Bautista bat flip competition in the WS.