The David Price It's Gonna Hai Thread

[Saul Goodman]

/thread

[Saul Goodman]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

[Saul Goodman]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

[InternetApex]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

Or Cueto.

[PenFoe]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

Or Cueto.

Or probably not Greinke, says Ken Rosenthal. 

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

Or Cueto.

Or probably not Greinke, says Ken Rosenthal. 

Fuck it.  Just sign one of the second-tier guys and make a deal for another one next July. A CF/leadoff guy is more important than a second starting pitcher anyway.  I'm okay going into the season with Arrieta, Lester, Cueto/Snork/Lackey/Leake, Hammel (yes, even him) and the Quality Start Machine.  That Top 3 ought to be good enough to keep you in contention until the trade deadline (it'd be better than Lester/Arrieta/Hammel which is what we had last year) at which point they can then trade some of their shiny young prospects for a 4th pitcher.  Meanwhile, they'll get a full season of Russell, Schwarber and Bryant bashing the ball around Rizzo and Castro with Baez moving around the infield to give the others a blow.  Just make sure you get Denard Span or some solid replacement for Fowler.

Nothing is fucked here.

[PenFoe]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

Or Cueto.

Or probably not Greinke, says Ken Rosenthal. 

Fuck it.  Just sign one of the second-tier guys and make a deal for another one next July. A CF/leadoff guy is more important than a second starting pitcher anyway.  I'm okay going into the season with Arrieta, Lester, Cueto/Snork/Lackey/Leake, Hammel (yes, even him) and the Quality Start Machine.  That Top 3 ought to be good enough to keep you in contention until the trade deadline (it'd be better than Lester/Arrieta/Hammel which is what we had last year) at which point they can then trade some of their shiny young prospects for a 4th pitcher.  Meanwhile, they'll get a full season of Russell, Schwarber and Bryant bashing the ball around Rizzo and Castro with Baez moving around the infield to give the others a blow.  Just make sure you get Denard Span or some solid replacement for Fowler.

Nothing is fucked here.

You're being very un-Huede

[Eli]

/thread

Intrepid Reader: Cubs Twitter

Meh. Didn't want him anyway. Not for those dollars. No sirree.

It's important for us all to be good stewards of the Ricketts' billions.

[Canadouche]

I feel that the Red Sox and Yankees are the only teams that can throw ridiculous piles of cash at pitchers and absorb the losses once they start getting hurt/losing viability. It would be nice if the Cubs were also one of those teams, and debateably they could afford to be, but it's really hard to justify investing that kind of money in a pitcher who will only be worth it for perhaps half of the contract.

[Shooter]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

Or Cueto.

Or probably not Greinke, says Ken Rosenthal. 

I'd prefer five or six years of Greinke at $31M per than seven of Price at the same.

[Saul Goodman]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

Or Cueto.

Or probably not Greinke, says Ken Rosenthal. 

I'd prefer five or six years of Greinke at $31M per than seven of Price at the same.

Except it's never going to be seven years if he's any good.

[R-V]

/thread

This sucks. I really liked Price. This makes Samardzija more likely now, too, which ... excuse me while I vomit.

#GreinkeOrHeywardOrBust

Or Cueto.

Or probably not Greinke, says Ken Rosenthal. 

I'd prefer five or six years of Greinke at $31M per than seven of Price at the same.

Except it's never going to be seven years if he's any good.

Yeah, this is why I don't get the "opt-outs are terrible for the team" thing. What are the chances that Price blows out his elbow or his shoulder, or suddenly becomes terrible, over the next 3 years? Multiply that probability - which I'd argue is small - times the 4 years at the back end, and that's the risk the Red Sox are taking on. Let's say that probability is 20% - that's about a $25 M risk.

In return for taking on that risk, they get a top 5 pitcher on a 3 year, $90 M deal with the likely ability to cut bait right around the time he'll probably start to decline.

[Oleg]

I feel that the Red Sox and Yankees are the only teams that can throw ridiculous piles of cash at pitchers and absorb the losses once they start getting hurt/losing viability. It would be nice if the Cubs were also one of those teams, and debateably they could afford to be, but it's really hard to justify investing that kind of money in a pitcher who will only be worth it for perhaps half of the contract.

I don't think the forward thinking FOs think like this anymore.

1. The market is what the market is.
2. The importance of good, controllable players offsets much of this; players don't play nor get paid in a vacuum.
3. FOs understand and have a value system assigned based on their budgets and what they project any player to be worth.  For example, David Price is probably projected to be a 7-win pitcher in 2016.  That's worth a whole shitload of money in the market today, some may say 56MM.  If he turns into a 3 win pitcher at the end of the contract, that would be worth a whole lot less than the 31MM he'll make.  But, looking at the contract as a whole, the bet is that he'll be worth the whole contract over its life based on how good he is at the beginning of it.

There's a reason that Jim Bowden and Steve Phillips are on the radio and not in a front office.

[SKO]

I feel that the Red Sox and Yankees are the only teams that can throw ridiculous piles of cash at pitchers and absorb the losses once they start getting hurt/losing viability. It would be nice if the Cubs were also one of those teams, and debateably they could afford to be, but it's really hard to justify investing that kind of money in a pitcher who will only be worth it for perhaps half of the contract.

but it's really hard to justify investing that kind of money in a pitcher who will only be worth it for perhaps half of the contract.

ahem

they could afford to be

Oh wow look I justified it

[Eli]

Yeah, this is why I don't get the "opt-outs are terrible for the team" thing. What are the chances that Price blows out his elbow or his shoulder, or suddenly becomes terrible, over the next 3 years? Multiply that probability - which I'd argue is small - times the 4 years at the back end, and that's the risk the Red Sox are taking on. Let's say that probability is 20% - that's about a $25 M risk.

In return for taking on that risk, they get a top 5 pitcher on a 3 year, $90 M deal with the likely ability to cut bait right around the time he'll probably start to decline.

You're taking on 100% of the negative risk (injuries, ineffectiveness, etc.) with your upside being that he pitches well enough to leave you after three years.

Basically, the worst outcome is disastrous, the best outcome is fairly pleasant.