The 2015 Coin Flip Game Thread

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I thought Cahill couldn't make it because he wasn't on the 40-Man on 8/31 or am I misremembering?

[SKO]

I thought Cahill couldn't make it because he wasn't on the 40-Man on 8/31 or am I misremembering?

I believe he was added to the 40 Man on what they call August 32nd (basically added around midnight on 08/31, before the 09/01 games begin) so he was eligible to be on the postseason roster.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Hi, guys! Let's fucking go, eh?

[R-V]

I take back every nice thing I've said about Joe Sheehan. #pleaselikemyteam

Cubs at Pirates, 8 p.m. ET.

Is this the most-anticipated baseball game ever? Usually, huge baseball games just show up -- a Game Seven, a critical pennant-race matchup, a terrific pitching duel between aces. You might have a day or two to let the rush build. For fans, Cubs at Pirates, 8 p.m. ET in PNC Park on October 7, has been on the schedule for months. It's been since July that we could see this coming, and despite some brief moments where it looked slightly less possible, it was never really in doubt. I feel like I've been talking about this game, between two of the best teams in baseball, maybe the two best today, for half the season.

The Pirates, despite having the better record, are being overlooked a bit here. Some of that is because they're no longer the cute story; this is their third straight year in the playoffs, every one as WC #1. The Clint Hurdle Invitational, this is becoming. Their opponent this time is the Cubs, whose national profile sucks all the oxygen out of the room. Throw in the Jake Arrieta story -- Arrieta has thrown just three pitches out of the strike zone and allowed just six foul balls and a weak pop-up since 1987, or some such -- and all of the attention is on the visitors. That's a mistake; this is a strong Pirates team putting one of the best pitchers in the game on the mound. The Pirates have the best position player in this game. They have the better bullpen. They have the better defense, especially tonight. They play in front of a baseball crowd that occasionally behaves like a college-football one, famously throwing Johnny Cueto off his game two years ago in this same spot. I'm not saying they're going to win; I'm saying the Pirates being a betting underdog and positioned as "opponent" in the Cubs' story is badly understating their case.

Looking at the lineups, the contrast in approaches is the big pregame story. Hurdle has gone max-defense, starting Josh Harrison at third base and Sean Rodriguez at first, benching Aramis Ramirez and Pedro Alvarez in the process. There's some Earl Weaver in this, Earl's idea often being that he'd start the defense and, if he needed runs late in the game, he had options on the bench for getting them. There's some tactical advantage to this; you can pick a spot for a hitter to get a high-leverage at-bat more easily than you can pick when a fielder will have a ball hit to him. It's nevertheless a surprise to see Alvarez on the bench. Arrieta's vicious breaking stuff certainly makes a case for sitting the lefty, though; he struck out 30% of the lefties he faced this year, walked just 6.6% and allowed them just three home runs. The upgrade from Alvarez to Rodriguez on defense is large, as Alvarez is perhaps the worst defensive first baseman in the game.

Hurdle has gone with the becoming-standard 16/9 roster alignment, keeping Francisco Liriano around as the long man (and theoretically someone who could face Anthony Rizzo in a one-batter spot). Keon Broxton, who scored a big run against the Cubs in Wrigley three weeks ago, is rostered, as is Pedro Florimon. I could have seen finding a sport for Jaff Decker or Travis Ishikawa rather than Joe Blanton, but I understand managers not wanting to risk running out of pitchers in a 16-inning game...

[R-V]

...Joe Maddon has gone 15/10, keeping Trevor Cahill and Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester around for reasons passing understanding. Lester, who can't throw to first, can't field his position and needs a personal catcher, seems like the last guy you'd ask for an inning of relief work in a high-pressure spot. If you wanted a third long man, Dan Haren and Jason Hammel would have both been better choices, and Neil Ramirez is a more effective reliever than anyone else mentioned in this paragraph. It's kind of a fascinating pitching staff: 20% of it (Trevor Cahill and Fernando Rodney) was justifiably dumped by bad teams in-season, plus Clayton Richard is a retread with a 12% strikeout rate.

In contrast to Hurdle, Maddon is stacking his lineup with bats, assembling an outfield of, left to right, a third baseman, a left fielder and a catcher. It's a big risk at PNC Park, especially in a game where a missed fly ball, or even an extra base gained on a hit, could prove decisive. The swap that creates that outfield is that of Jorge Soler for Tommy LaStella, getting an extra left-handed bat and better OBP into the game. This seems like overmanaging. Cole's arm angle, repertoire and statistical profile belie the need to stack lefties against him.

Gerrit Cole, Neutral RHP

                   PA    AVG   OBP   SLG    K%   BB%
2015 vs. LHB      416   .227  .287  .310   24%    6%
2015 vs. RHB      416   .251  .287  .361   24%    4%

Career vs. LHB    898   .239  .303  .337   23%    7%
Career vs. RHB    974   .251  .295  .360   24%    5%

Nerd note: Cole faced exactly 416 hitters on both sides of the plate this year, struck out exactly 101 of each and allowed a .287 OBP to LHBs and RHBs.

I could argue that Maddon, by starting his lineup SLRLL, is trying to bait Hurdle into going to his bullpen rather than riding Cole, perhaps figuring that's his best chance to win the game. I'm not sure the Pirates' bullpen is weak enough to make that a sensible path.

All of this is probably overanalysis. We have two of the five best starters in the National League facing each other. In all likelihood, this will be a low-scoring game decided by which team stacks a couple of long hits together, or times a single one well. The Pirates, with their deeper pitching staff, are better equipped to win a game that is decided late. They also, with good speed in the starting lineup plus Broxton on the bench, are better equipped to manufacture a run if the game gets to a point where doing so makes sense. The Cubs' argument is Jake Arrieta. The Pirates' argument is pretty much everything else. Pirates in one.

[Tonker]

Can I go back and un-read all that?

[R-V]

Can I go back and un-read all that?

How about I just nitpick it instead:

I agree you might not bring in Lester with two men on or the bases loaded, but I see no reason why he couldn't be used to (a) start an inning or (b) with a runner on first. He's the second best pitcher on the team. Although I will say it seems unnecessary to have both Lester *and* Hendricks on the roster.

Labeling Fowler a left-fielder is a bit much and Sheehan admitted as much when I questioned him on it:

Calling Dexter Fowler a LF is a bit harsh, no? He's obviously not a Kiermaier or a Cain out there but based on my completely unbiased and reliable eye test he's been at least average if not above average out there this year – I'd say most Cubs fans have been pleasantly surprised with his defense that, based on the metrics, we were expecting to be below average. If he's a left fielder than there's only 5 or 10 starter-level "center fielders" in the game today.

I've thought the same. Metrics hate him, across the board. Adam Jones is the same way.

And Joe has stated that the La Stella play is less about platoon advantage and more about having a contact hitter at that spot in the lineup, given the issues they've had getting guys in from 3rd with less than 2 outs.

[ChuckD]

I could argue that Maddon, by starting his lineup SLRLL, is trying to bait Hurdle into going to his bullpen rather than riding Cole, perhaps figuring that's his best chance to win the game. I'm not sure the Pirates' bullpen is weak enough to make that a sensible path.

[Saul Goodman]

T MINUS TWO HOURS, FEMALE DOGS!

[flannj]

Absolute total fucking freakout happened at the flannj household about 20 minutes ago as the power went out for absolutely no reason.
It's back on now but holy crap the level of swearing from Mrs. flannj during those minutes I thought was going to summon the ghost of Thomas Edison just so she could drive a stake through his heart.

[Armchair_QB]

[Wheezer]

It's back on now but holy crap the level of swearing from Mrs. flannj during those minutes I thought was going to summon the ghost of Thomas Edison just so she could drive a stake through his heart.

That's why I always have a set of four fresh D batteries for the radio.

[flannj]

It's back on now but holy crap the level of swearing from Mrs. flannj during those minutes I thought was going to summon the ghost of Thomas Edison just so she could drive a stake through his heart.

That's why I always have a set of four fresh D batteries for the radio.

Thank God you're here I may need something to calm my nerves.

[Canadouche]

Schwarber just did his best to settle all of us.

[Wheezer]

It's back on now but holy crap the level of swearing from Mrs. flannj during those minutes I thought was going to summon the ghost of Thomas Edison just so she could drive a stake through his heart.

That's why I always have a set of four fresh D batteries for the radio.

Thank God you're here I may need something to calm my nerves.

If you instead were here, I could treat that with a judicious combination of uppers and downers.