The 2015 Coin Flip Game Thread

[flannj]

It's back on now but holy crap the level of swearing from Mrs. flannj during those minutes I thought was going to summon the ghost of Thomas Edison just so she could drive a stake through his heart.

That's why I always have a set of four fresh D batteries for the radio.

Thank God you're here I may need something to calm my nerves.

If you instead were here, I could treat that with a judicious combination of uppers and downers.

So I'd be completely sober?

[ChuckD]

It's back on now but holy crap the level of swearing from Mrs. flannj during those minutes I thought was going to summon the ghost of Thomas Edison just so she could drive a stake through his heart.

That's why I always have a set of four fresh D batteries for the radio.

Thank God you're here I may need something to calm my nerves.

If you instead were here, I could treat that with a judicious combination of uppers and downers.

I understood all of the words in two straight Wheezer posts. This really may be the end times.

[Wheezer]

It's back on now but holy crap the level of swearing from Mrs. flannj during those minutes I thought was going to summon the ghost of Thomas Edison just so she could drive a stake through his heart.

That's why I always have a set of four fresh D batteries for the radio.

Thank God you're here I may need something to calm my nerves.

If you instead were here, I could treat that with a judicious combination of uppers and downers.

So I'd be completely sober?

You'd probably never notice the difference.

[Wheezer]

BREEVE!

[Canadouche]

I don't know if any of you guys Reddit, but the Pirates subreddit is rapidly descending into anarchy right now.

[Wheezer]

I could argue that Maddon, by starting his lineup SLRLL, is trying to bait Hurdle into going to his bullpen rather than riding Cole, perhaps figuring that's his best chance to win the game. I'm not sure the Pirates' bullpen is weak enough to make that a sensible path.

For certain values of "bait."

[Wheezer]

FASTEN THOSE DONGBELTS.

[CT III]

...Joe Maddon has gone 15/10, keeping Trevor Cahill and Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester around for reasons passing understanding. Lester, who can't throw to first, can't field his position and needs a personal catcher, seems like the last guy you'd ask for an inning of relief work in a high-pressure spot. If you wanted a third long man, Dan Haren and Jason Hammel would have both been better choices, and Neil Ramirez is a more effective reliever than anyone else mentioned in this paragraph. It's kind of a fascinating pitching staff: 20% of it (Trevor Cahill and Fernando Rodney) was justifiably dumped by bad teams in-season, plus Clayton Richard is a retread with a 12% strikeout rate.

In contrast to Hurdle, Maddon is stacking his lineup with bats, assembling an outfield of, left to right, a third baseman, a left fielder and a catcher. It's a big risk at PNC Park, especially in a game where a missed fly ball, or even an extra base gained on a hit, could prove decisive. The swap that creates that outfield is that of Jorge Soler for Tommy LaStella, getting an extra left-handed bat and better OBP into the game. This seems like overmanaging. Cole's arm angle, repertoire and statistical profile belie the need to stack lefties against him.

Gerrit Cole, Neutral RHP

                   PA    AVG   OBP   SLG    K%   BB%
2015 vs. LHB      416   .227  .287  .310   24%    6%
2015 vs. RHB      416   .251  .287  .361   24%    4%

Career vs. LHB    898   .239  .303  .337   23%    7%
Career vs. RHB    974   .251  .295  .360   24%    5%

Nerd note: Cole faced exactly 416 hitters on both sides of the plate this year, struck out exactly 101 of each and allowed a .287 OBP to LHBs and RHBs.

I could argue that Maddon, by starting his lineup SLRLL, is trying to bait Hurdle into going to his bullpen rather than riding Cole, perhaps figuring that's his best chance to win the game. I'm not sure the Pirates' bullpen is weak enough to make that a sensible path.

All of this is probably overanalysis. We have two of the five best starters in the National League facing each other. In all likelihood, this will be a low-scoring game decided by which team stacks a couple of long hits together, or times a single one well. The Pirates, with their deeper pitching staff, are better equipped to win a game that is decided late. They also, with good speed in the starting lineup plus Broxton on the bench, are better equipped to manufacture a run if the game gets to a point where doing so makes sense. The Cubs' argument is Jake Arrieta. The Pirates' argument is pretty much everything else. Pirates in one.

Yup.

[Bort]

...Joe Maddon has gone 15/10, keeping Trevor Cahill and Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester around for reasons passing understanding. Lester, who can't throw to first, can't field his position and needs a personal catcher, seems like the last guy you'd ask for an inning of relief work in a high-pressure spot. If you wanted a third long man, Dan Haren and Jason Hammel would have both been better choices, and Neil Ramirez is a more effective reliever than anyone else mentioned in this paragraph. It's kind of a fascinating pitching staff: 20% of it (Trevor Cahill and Fernando Rodney) was justifiably dumped by bad teams in-season, plus Clayton Richard is a retread with a 12% strikeout rate.

In contrast to Hurdle, Maddon is stacking his lineup with bats, assembling an outfield of, left to right, a third baseman, a left fielder and a catcher. It's a big risk at PNC Park, especially in a game where a missed fly ball, or even an extra base gained on a hit, could prove decisive. The swap that creates that outfield is that of Jorge Soler for Tommy LaStella, getting an extra left-handed bat and better OBP into the game. This seems like overmanaging. Cole's arm angle, repertoire and statistical profile belie the need to stack lefties against him.

Gerrit Cole, Neutral RHP

                   PA    AVG   OBP   SLG    K%   BB%
2015 vs. LHB      416   .227  .287  .310   24%    6%
2015 vs. RHB      416   .251  .287  .361   24%    4%

Career vs. LHB    898   .239  .303  .337   23%    7%
Career vs. RHB    974   .251  .295  .360   24%    5%

Nerd note: Cole faced exactly 416 hitters on both sides of the plate this year, struck out exactly 101 of each and allowed a .287 OBP to LHBs and RHBs.

I could argue that Maddon, by starting his lineup SLRLL, is trying to bait Hurdle into going to his bullpen rather than riding Cole, perhaps figuring that's his best chance to win the game. I'm not sure the Pirates' bullpen is weak enough to make that a sensible path.

All of this is probably overanalysis. We have two of the five best starters in the National League facing each other. In all likelihood, this will be a low-scoring game decided by which team stacks a couple of long hits together, or times a single one well. The Pirates, with their deeper pitching staff, are better equipped to win a game that is decided late. They also, with good speed in the starting lineup plus Broxton on the bench, are better equipped to manufacture a run if the game gets to a point where doing so makes sense. The Cubs' argument is Jake Arrieta. The Pirates' argument is pretty much everything else. Pirates in one.

Yup.

The Cubs made a pretty convincing argument.

[SKO]

thank Christ.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Thought my head was about to explode when the Pirates had the bases loaded.

Jake.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Thought my head was about to explode when the Pirates had the bases loaded.

Jake.

Something something something Huey's bike.

[SKO]

Thought my head was about to explode when the Pirates had the bases loaded.

Jake.

That Addison booted a double play grounder he makes 99/100 times gave me some awful flashbacks but Jake is made of sterner stuff and Addison wasn't gonna fuck it up a second time

[thehawk]

Thought my head was about to explode when the Pirates had the bases loaded.

Jake.

That Addison booted a double play grounder he makes 99/100 times gave me some awful flashbacks but Jake is made of sterner stuff and Addison wasn't gonna fuck it up a second time

Looking back on it, I am glad Addison 'booted' that first DP ball.  While it would had been a tough play regardless, it got all of us to having those dreadful thoughts about 2003.  And then Addison and Castro and Rizzo made the next play, and reminded us all that

This. isn't. that. team.

[Slaky]

Thought my head was about to explode when the Pirates had the bases loaded.

Jake.

That Addison booted a double play grounder he makes 99/100 times gave me some awful flashbacks but Jake is made of sterner stuff and Addison wasn't gonna fuck it up a second time

Looking back on it, I am glad Addison 'booted' that first DP ball.  While it would had been a tough play regardless, it got all of us to having those dreadful thoughts about 2003.  And then Addison and Castro and Rizzo made the next play, and reminded us all that

This. isn't. that. team.

That Russell came back to make the play the second time (also his first mistake, if you can call it that, DID save a run at least) wasn't surprising. The Bryant backhand DP blew my pants off. That one ended me. Just plain fucking sick.