2015 NLDS Games Thread: Eat Shit, St. Louis

[SKO]

TPD

In the 2002 WS he pitched in three games, a three inning relief stint and then 2 starts on short rest. In that series he had a 4.38 ERA with 6 ER and 5 walks in 12.1 IP.

In 2005 he went on short rest in game 4 of the ALDS vs the Yankees, 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K.

Since then he has had zero starts on short rest unless you count his single inning of relief in Game 4 of the 2013 WS as I said.

Also, legit question: let's say Lackey is effective. Maybe he goes 5-6 innings tops? Then what? Are they gonna push Wainwright back out there again on his Frankenchilles? We already know Matheny isn't smart enough to make Rosenthal pitch 2 innings.

This is all on Hammel. He has to get through his bogey inning. This is right fucking there for the taking. John Lackey is not beating the Cubs again.

If Hammel has another first inning meltdown I'll go full meatball to the point that Huey's DeRosa rant will seem tame. I will never want to see that stupid fucker in a Cub uniform again.

[Oleg]

PECOTA at 63/37 Cubs for this afternoon's game.  Sphincter is neatly clenched.

[SKO]

PECOTA at 63/37 Cubs for this afternoon's game.  Sphincter is neatly clenched.

Woof how are their odds higher today than yesterday with Jake? Gonna hurl

[Tony]

PECOTA at 63/37 Cubs for this afternoon's game.  Sphincter is neatly clenched.

Woof how are their odds higher today than yesterday with Jake? Gonna hurl

Because Lackey is horrible on short rest? Except when he isn't?

[SKO]

PECOTA at 63/37 Cubs for this afternoon's game.  Sphincter is neatly clenched.

Woof how are their odds higher today than yesterday with Jake? Gonna hurl

Because Lackey is horrible on short rest? Except when he isn't?

I'm guessing considering we have, at most, like 7 games of Lackey on short rest in a 13 year career that PECOTA would consider that too small of a sample size. They may just go on the fact that pitchers in general are worse on short rest, though.

[Oleg]

PECOTA at 63/37 Cubs for this afternoon's game.  Sphincter is neatly clenched.

Woof how are their odds higher today than yesterday with Jake? Gonna hurl

Because Lackey is horrible on short rest? Except when he isn't?

I'm guessing considering we have, at most, like 7 games of Lackey on short rest in a 13 year career that PECOTA would consider that too small of a sample size. They may just go on the fact that pitchers in general are worse on short rest, though.

PECOTA loves the Cubs' odds in this game. That's a product of the power of their lineup, sure, but also about the weakness of the Cardinals'. Cruz coming in for Molina is a big dropoff in performance---he had a TAv of just .179 this year, to Molina's .239---and, of course, Molina helps his club in a lot of ways that don't show up on the stat sheet. Jason Heyward has been swinging a hot bat, but the Cubs will play matchups heavily with their relievers in order to neutralize as many of the Cardinals' threats as possible.

The Cubs' weakness will come in the form of Hammel---if he fails to perform---and then in the right and left arms of the succession of relievers that will try to nail down the game for Chicago. Look for the Cubs to take this one in a hang-onto-your-hat sort of game, and clinch a spot in the NLCS in the process. These Cubs are loose; they won't let the moment get too big to them, and if they knock the Cardinals out on Tuesday night, they'll have the best record of any team left standing.

[Yeti]

Just hope Jason Hammel can avoid the first inning pants-shitting. If he can keep them off of the board even for a few innings I think they'll get to Lackey on short rest, since he's been a whole different beast on the road this year anyway. 3.82 ERA away vs 1.93 at home. .636 OPS against at home, .733 on the road. And for what it's worth (probably nothing), in 4 career starts on short rest he's got a 4.92 ERA.

Counterpoint not worth noting, in 4 career postseason starts on rest of 3 days or less, he's got an ERA of 2.43, including 6.2 innings of 1 run ball against the Cardinals in the clinching Game 6 of the 13 WS.

Soler will be outless against him

Where the heck are you getting this? Lackey started game 2 of the WS in 2013 on October 24th, then Game 6 on October 30th. By my count that's extended rest, not short rest?

No legit point. I just recall someone saying he was good in the postseason on short rest and just found the data. Small sample sizes make the variance in results moot.

Again, George will be outless

[Oleg]

PECOTA at 63/37 Cubs for this afternoon's game.  Sphincter is neatly clenched.

Woof how are their odds higher today than yesterday with Jake? Gonna hurl

Just as a frame of reference, PECOTA has the Dodgers at 59/41.  It didn't take Kershaw on short rest into consideration.

[ChuckD]

So ... uh ... hrm.

[Shooter]

Fuck Mike Winters

Nobody to blame but themselves at this point.

It doesn't look to me like those were bad pitches. Still, you have to think Arrieta is done after this inning.

They are when they aren't called both ways.

The Cards seem to have figured out the strike zone and haven't been taking those pitches -- so they can't be called both ways.

It seems like the TBS strike zone thing is trash. Pitches that look borderline to the naked eye look eight inches off of the plate on TBS's graphic.

[ChuckD]

Fuck Mike Winters

Nobody to blame but themselves at this point.

It doesn't look to me like those were bad pitches. Still, you have to think Arrieta is done after this inning.

They are when they aren't called both ways.

The Cards seem to have figured out the strike zone and haven't been taking those pitches -- so they can't be called both ways.

It seems like the TBS strike zone thing is trash. Pitches that look borderline to the naked eye look eight inches off of the plate on TBS's graphic.

Oh, yeah. Much like the rest of their broadcast, it's been basically garbage. But if you look at the Pitch F/X coords (Brooks Baseball has graphics updated live during games), it's clear that the Cubs are taking a lot more borderline pitches whereas the Cards are swinging.

[SKO]

Fuck Mike Winters

Nobody to blame but themselves at this point.

It doesn't look to me like those were bad pitches. Still, you have to think Arrieta is done after this inning.

They are when they aren't called both ways.

The Cards seem to have figured out the strike zone and haven't been taking those pitches -- so they can't be called both ways.

It seems like the TBS strike zone thing is trash. Pitches that look borderline to the naked eye look eight inches off of the plate on TBS's graphic.

Oh, yeah. Much like the rest of their broadcast, it's been basically garbage. But if you look at the Pitch F/X coords (Brooks Baseball has graphics updated live during games), it's clear that the Cubs are taking a lot more borderline pitches whereas the Cards are swinging.

Yep. There's a reason they were second in the majors in walks and first in strikeouts. They're going to live and die by that approach. It sucks when they die by it and in the postseason especially I wish they'd adjust and hack more when necessary, but it's not a result of bias that the Cardinals are striking out less.

[Oleg]

So ... uh ... hrm.

Damnit.  Sphincter clenched a little tighter now.

[Quality Start Machine]

So ... uh ... hrm.

Damnit.  Sphincter clenched a little tighter now.

It's a new day, guys. Let everyone else's asses turn coal to diamonds.

[CubFaninHydePark]

So ... uh ... hrm.

Damnit.  Sphincter clenched a little tighter now.

It's a new day, guys. Let everyone else's asses turn coal to diamonds.

Don't you dare be sour...and feel the power.  It's a New Day, yes it is!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDlI0ziLZug