2015 Cubs Offseason: Building a Winner Around David Ross

[SKO]

Yawn.

If I believed in jinxes at all now would be about the time I'd tell Jeff Sullivan to knock it the fuck off.

But really I enjoy laughing at the butthurt in the comments, broadly summarized:

1) We Get It, You Want to Work for the Cubs
2) Team X once spent a lot of money and sucked, so therefore the Cubs will suck (be sure to ignore that Team X was coming off a 70 win season and not a 97 win season)
3) Mets beat em in the playoffs soo
4) 1908.

To be fair, the Cubs' history is pretty much a study in Murphy's Law, so talk of jinxes and shit like that are not completely without validity.

That being said, we're looking at the core of guys who are going to, and winning, the World Series. Let all the STATFAGs analyze it all they want.

Actually, talk of "jinxes" is exactly without validity since "jinxes" don't really exist.

I mean I don't begrudge anyone who is a Cubs fan for having a sinking feeling of wondering how this all might go wrong, I get it. Just don't go making an actual argument on the internet that your bad feelings mean something compared to actual data.

And let's be honest: how much of the Cubs' failures over the past 50 years have been down to "bad luck" vs. "just not actually having teams built strong enough to have winning records over multiple years?"

I'd take it a step further and say that most of the problems that have befallen the Cubs have been bad management. They were cursed for the better part of half a century with a totally useless owner who crippled his team's chances on a regular basis by hiring the wrong guys to run it. Probably the best two moves the Cubs have ever made were in acquiring Dallas Green and Theo Epstein, and Green was sent packing - and saw dismantled by lesser men much of what he'd tried to build - right as the organization threatened to turn a corner. Up until Theo, the last real reliable hitters developed by the Cubs were guys who were drafted by Green (except for a few sporadic players like Geo Soto, who proved to be more flashes in the pan than anything else). That's a ridiculous stretch of time.

Whatever the reasons--and they're all traceable to evidence-based explanations-- it's been a historical anomaly, one which I expect to normalize by 5 straight CHAMMENSHIPS (only other team w/even 4 straight being the '36-'39 NYY and '49-'53 NYY).

Basically the main reason to be excited is that Theo and Jed appear to have built a team that's deep as well as laden with top talent. Obviously major, season-ending injuries to multiple guys would kill the Cubs as much as anyone, but they've insured themselves pretty well. Given the versatility of guys like Baez and Zobrist and Bryant and Heyward they should be able to fill holes all over the field if one guy goes down for a couple of weeks. They've made sure they have at least 6-7 quality starting pitching options. The bullpen is deep. The farm system is still probably top ten and they can fill holes through promotion or have the ammo to make deadline deals if something comes up. They have the best manager in the game. They've tried to cut off every possible trouble spot before it happens. It's comforting.

What's blown me away is that they improved upon a 97-win team without having to move a single prospect out of their farm system.

Hell they traded Starlin Castro and we forgot about it in like a day.

[R-V]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

[SKO]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

Do I hate Contreras now? Works for me. Can't have him forcing his way into the big league rotation and taking starts away from my beloved David Ross

[Quality Start Machine]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

Considering what the Braves got for Miller, neither Soler & Contreras for Miller or Baez & Soler for Corrasco are outside the realm of possibility.

But if I were Theo, I'll be goddamned if my trigger finger wouldn't be really fucking itchy on the Corrasco deal if that's what Cleveland wanted.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

Considering what the Braves got for Miller, neither Soler & Contreras for Miller or Baez & Soler for Corrasco are outside the realm of possibility.

But if I were Theo, I'll be goddamned if my trigger finger wouldn't be really fucking itchy on the Corrasco deal if that's what Cleveland wanted.

"That's Our Fork"

[Saul Goodman]

With his permission...

Feel free to pass along chapters to friends -- I get asked about that, and sending occasional issues to people is fair use and a big part of how I get new subscribers.

...here is Joe Sheehan's take on the Cubs' offseason so far. He saved the Cubs for last.

As of ten days ago, the Cubs weren't having much of an offseason. They spent November collecting potential cheap relievers -- Rex Brothers, Ryan Cook (subsequently lost). Spencer Patton, Luis Parra... They re-signed Trevor Cahill, who pitched well for them out of the bullpen down the stretch. Jed Hoyer downplayed the team's activity as recently as November 30, saying, "We are not close to anything right now."

Just a few days later, the Cubs signed John Lackey to a two-year, $32-million contract. The signing stands out as one of the biggest bargains of the fall, with Lackey -- coming off the second-best season of his career -- settling for a two-year contract. These late-career pitcher deals have become very valuable, as teams get good performance for reasonable prices without the long-term risk associated with younger pitchers. Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, A.J. Burnett... these pitchers have been good buys for their teams at the end of their careers. Lackey may not match his 2015 line, but he doesn't have to to be an asset for the Cubs. Since missing all of 2012, Lackey has averaged 31 starts, 200 innings, posted a 119 ERA+ and been worth three wins a year. He'll make less money per year than Jeff Samardzija will, and is guaranteed less than 40% of Samardzija's money in total. It's a fantastic contract.

Four days later, the Cubs added Ben Zobrist on a four-year, $56-million deal. This is less obviously a win; Zobrist's value may be a bit higher than his raw numbers suggest because of his flexibility. However, that flexibility had more value when he was younger and a plus defender at multiple positions. He isn't that guy anymore, but as a switch-hitter and a high-OBP hitter, he still helps you win. Zobrist's 2015, his worst year since 2010, was still worth three wins. He is reuniting with the manager who turned him from a shortstop into a multi-positional weapon. Zobrist will also be an OBP-heavy addition to a SLG-heavy roster.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

With his permission...

Feel free to pass along chapters to friends -- I get asked about that, and sending occasional issues to people is fair use and a big part of how I get new subscribers.

...here is Joe Sheehan's take on the Cubs' offseason so far. He saved the Cubs for last.

As of ten days ago, the Cubs weren't having much of an offseason. They spent November collecting potential cheap relievers -- Rex Brothers, Ryan Cook (subsequently lost). Spencer Patton, Luis Parra... They re-signed Trevor Cahill, who pitched well for them out of the bullpen down the stretch. Jed Hoyer downplayed the team's activity as recently as November 30, saying, "We are not close to anything right now."

Just a few days later, the Cubs signed John Lackey to a two-year, $32-million contract. The signing stands out as one of the biggest bargains of the fall, with Lackey -- coming off the second-best season of his career -- settling for a two-year contract. These late-career pitcher deals have become very valuable, as teams get good performance for reasonable prices without the long-term risk associated with younger pitchers. Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, A.J. Burnett... these pitchers have been good buys for their teams at the end of their careers. Lackey may not match his 2015 line, but he doesn't have to to be an asset for the Cubs. Since missing all of 2012, Lackey has averaged 31 starts, 200 innings, posted a 119 ERA+ and been worth three wins a year. He'll make less money per year than Jeff Samardzija will, and is guaranteed less than 40% of Samardzija's money in total. It's a fantastic contract.

Four days later, the Cubs added Ben Zobrist on a four-year, $56-million deal. This is less obviously a win; Zobrist's value may be a bit higher than his raw numbers suggest because of his flexibility. However, that flexibility had more value when he was younger and a plus defender at multiple positions. He isn't that guy anymore, but as a switch-hitter and a high-OBP hitter, he still helps you win. Zobrist's 2015, his worst year since 2010, was still worth three wins. He is reuniting with the manager who turned him from a shortstop into a multi-positional weapon. Zobrist will also be an OBP-heavy addition to a SLG-heavy roster.

I like what Sheahan says about Lackey.  I had to fend off an obnoxious Sox fan (REDUNDANT!) friend who felt Lackey was hardly an upgrade over Hammel.  The guy was the #1 pitcher for a 100-win ballclub, for crissakes.  Two-year deal?  Shit.

[Saul Goodman]

The only thing that puzzled me was the fit. The Cubs entered the offseason with three middle infielders and no center fielder, and the Zobrist signing didn't address that at all -- it exacerbated the logjam. Joe Maddon played Kris Bryant in center a few times last year; maybe Jorge Soler would be tasked with playing center, with Zobrist marched out to right? Wrigley has a small center field, so it wouldn't be outrageous in home games.

Some of that problem was solved when, the same evening, the Cubs announced they were trading Starlin Castro to the Yankees for Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan. This still left Zobrist, Javier Baez and Addison Russell in the middle infield, but the Cubs were at least back to three men for two spots. The trade ended Castro's frustrating career as a Cub, one in which he hit .297/.336/.425 through three seasons -- giving himself an early chance at 3,000 hits -- and then collapsed to .265/.305/.383 from ages 23-25. It's the most puzzling career path since B.J. Upton's. Now a second baseman -- and by many accounts, better there than at shortstop -- Castro can rebuild his career with a new team, and perhaps with more manageable expectations.

Warren is an interesting piece for the Cubs. Perhaps best used in a role that doesn't exist any longer, multi-inning reliever, Warren has a 3.39 ERA (3.69 FIP) in parts of four seasons with the Yankees. Warren may be the closest thing to a true swingman in today's game, making 17 starts and 26 relief appearances last year, with a 3.66 ERA in the former role and a 2.29 mark in the latter. He didn't jump in and out of the roles the way Carter-era swingmen did -- I always think of Tom Underwood when I talk about this -- but almost no-one does that any more. He was one of five pitchers to make 15 starts and 15 relief appearances, and two of those were starters who lost their jobs for cause. The Cubs have five starters, but Jason Hammel isn't a full-season guy. Accordingly, Warren should find himself in both roles again next year. As with Zobrist, Warren is a piece whose value increases with a manager who knows how to use him.

[Saul Goodman]

The Cubs had made three good moves... and then they kicked it into gear. Last Friday, they reached an agreement with Jason Heyward on an eight-year, $184-million contract. Heyward, just 26 next year, would not be breaking the bank, would not be setting records for contract length. He would be signing for three-quarters of Robinson Cano money, 70% of Albert Pujols money, less than the top pitchers were getting. If the deal had been only that, 8/184, it would have been a steal for the Cubs.

As it turned out, there was more to it. There's a signing bonus deferred halfway to the Rapture. For the next three years, Heyward will make just $15 million, $21.5 million and $21.5 million. Heyward can opt out after 2018, or after 2019 if he reaches 550 PA in '19. (An odd clause, in that he would be unlikely to opt out after a shortened season, I would think.) So it's a contract for 3/78 guaranteed, after which Heyward can opt-in for 1/20, then again for 4/86. It's a complicated structure, but no matter how you look at it, it's a great deal for the Cubs. There's very little downside risk other than disaster scenarios. So many of the questions about Heyward were how the industry would value his defense. With this deal, it doesn't matter; Heyward has been a three-win player with his bat and legs, and if that continues, the Cubs would break even on the deal -- even if the power never comes. Heyward will probably have to play center field in the short term, which adds positional value with an unknown impact on his defensive performance. It's a wash, projection-wise, until we see him in center.

The Cubs signed three free agents. Two of them were among the best bargains of the winter. Zobrist is a bit of an overpay, perhaps underestimating the decline risk of a 35-year-old who's losing a step defensively. Because the deal has a $12 million final year, though, walking away at the end will be less painful for the Cubs. With a nod to the Diamondbacks, the Cubs aren't only having the best offseason of any team, they've built the best team in baseball.

CF Heyward
2B Zobrist
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber
RF Soler
C Montero
SS Russell

Bench Baez
Bench Coghlan
Bench Ross
Bench La Stella
Bench Szczur

SP Arrrieta
SP Lester
SP Lackey
SP Hendricks
SP Hammel

RP Rondon (RH)
RP Strop (RH)
RP Cahill (RH)
RP Warren (RH)
RP Richard (LH)
RP Wood (LH)
RP Grimm (RH)

[Saul Goodman]

It's not a great defensive team. The bullpen was effective last year but still doesn't inspire confidence. I'm not sure any team can match the Cubs 1-5 or 1-10, though. They have tremendous frontline talent, with a lineup that could lead the NL in runs, and a rotation that has no pitcher projected to be a below-average starter. They may not be done, either; could Baez be used to get a young center fielder? How about prospects such as Billy McKinney, Albert Almora and Ian Happ -- most of whom now seem to be blocked at the MLB level. (Top prospect Gleyber Torres may be as well, but is both good enough and far away enough that it's less of a concern.) The Cubs' 2016 payroll is still just $126 million for 13 players, although Jake Arrieta is about to get paid in arbitration. They could reasonably add another highly-paid player if they wanted to.

More likely, they'll seek out trade options that give them controllable talent, and if nothing falls into place, go into the season with the above. If the Cubs do nothing between now and Opening Day, they'll be projected to win the NL Central. That doesn't guarantee a pennant or a championship, of course. It does, however, validate the process that put the Cubs where they are today.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

[Quality Start Machine]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

Considering what the Braves got for Miller, neither Soler & Contreras for Miller or Baez & Soler for Corrasco are outside the realm of possibility.

But if I were Theo, I'll be goddamned if my trigger finger wouldn't be really fucking itchy on the Corrasco deal if that's what Cleveland wanted.

"That's Our Fork"

You wouldn't trade Soler and Contreras for a 5-win pitcher?

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

Considering what the Braves got for Miller, neither Soler & Contreras for Miller or Baez & Soler for Corrasco are outside the realm of possibility.

But if I were Theo, I'll be goddamned if my trigger finger wouldn't be really fucking itchy on the Corrasco deal if that's what Cleveland wanted.

"That's Our Fork"

You wouldn't trade Soler and Contreras for a 5-win pitcher?

Was that the question?  I was too distracted by your comment being enveloped into what you were quoting (hence the phrase).

[Saul Goodman]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

Considering what the Braves got for Miller, neither Soler & Contreras for Miller or Baez & Soler for Corrasco are outside the realm of possibility.

But if I were Theo, I'll be goddamned if my trigger finger wouldn't be really fucking itchy on the Corrasco deal if that's what Cleveland wanted.

"That's Our Fork"

You wouldn't trade Soler and Contreras for a 5-win pitcher?

Was that the question?  I was too distracted by your comment being enveloped into what you were quoting (hence the phrase).

"There but for the grace of God go I"?

[Tonker]

Interesting nugget from Peter Gammons that I hadn't heard on the guy SKO hates. This also makes it sound like a starting pitcher deal might not happen until midseason.

Hoyer and Epstein tried to get one young, controllable starter to fit in behind Lester, Jake Arrieta and Lackey with Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. They were in the Shelby Miller sweepstakes, but the Braves insisted on both Soler and Willson Contreras, but Chicago would not include Contreras, who may well end up catching in the big leagues as the season progresses.

Tampa wanted Baez, but the Cubs still have concerns about the medicals on Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, coming off injury. They tried to get involved with Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar with the Indians, but the price is high. It may be that come Memorial Day, the Cubs are settled enough and the Indians have started slowly enough that some sort of deal could be worked around one of the Indians starters and a Baez/Soler package. But the Indians know that if they have their current rotation and things break right, they can be serious contenders in the American League Central, and be serious contenders built on starting pitching. So why move one of the Big Four before seeing where Michael Brantley is come April?

Considering what the Braves got for Miller, neither Soler & Contreras for Miller or Baez & Soler for Corrasco are outside the realm of possibility.

But if I were Theo, I'll be goddamned if my trigger finger wouldn't be really fucking itchy on the Corrasco deal if that's what Cleveland wanted.

"That's Our Fork"

You wouldn't trade Soler and Contreras for a 5-win pitcher?

Was that the question?  I was too distracted by your comment being enveloped into what you were quoting (hence the phrase).

"There but for the grace of God go I"?

"tHree bu tfor teh grave of BoD go"