2015 Cubs Offseason: Building a Winner Around David Ross

[SKO]

Does it make me a hypocrite to talk about how valuable Heyward is but not want to trade Soler for Inciarte? I know what WAR says and all but it feels like Inciarte was at the peak of his value in 2015, which is a 3 win player mostly thanks to defense, and I feel like Soler's potential is still greater than that. To me the value lost by playing Heyward in CF (if there really is any, and I'm not convinced there is given how small Wrigley's CF is anyway and how much better Heyward's bat plays there) to keep Soler is less than the value lost by selling low on Jorge.

I dunno. Call me an idiot.

Wait...is trading Soler for Inciarte really a thing?  I don't think I'd want to do that deal, objectively speaking.  I'm not sure what the marginal wins added are in that deal.

Having said that, here's another piece of awesomeness about the Heyward deal.  It's probably the first time ever that Cameron has even suggested that an opt-out may be a win for the team giving it.

Yeah, supposedly the Cubs have inquired on Inciarte. Inciarte was  5.3 bWAR player, Fangraphs had him as a 3.3. So I mean if you're just using WAR he's inarguably better than what Soler was (0.1). But I feel like we saw the worst version of Jorge and the best version of Inciarte this year. I know there are very realistic reasons for thinking Jorge will never reach his peak, but I'd still rather keep him than trade him for a scrappy center fielder coming off a career year. If they're going to move him I'd prefer it be part of a package for a high end starter.

I think I'd have Apex levels of butthurt if they traded Soler for Inciarte.

Oh good, well that just leaves Eli to tell us all how dumb we are.

I don't really think there's a dumb side to this one. I think it depends what they're after. If they're really trying to maximize this next 2-3 years, Inciarte is a safer bet to provide value because he has a clearly established skill. Soler hasn't really proven he can do anything consistently well in the majors, besides look really good in a baseball uniform. But there's obviously reason to believe in his upside.

It's just a matter of floors and ceilings. Inciarte's a safe bet to be worth 2ish wins, and Jorge could probably range anywhere from 0 to 4 wins. I'm not sure I'd be all that thrilled about giving up Jorge for Inciarte but I can see the appeal, especially if it lets them have an elite defensive outfield at 2/3 spots and help cover for Schwarber's shortcomings out there.

Fair enough. I'm at the point now where I'd rather they wait till July 31st before they make a decision on trading Jorge. See how Heyward and Jorge together is working out (along with how Javy's bat and transition to playing some OF is coming along) before deciding you feel comfortable or not moving Jorge, and see if prices come down on starting pitching by then as well.

I know a shitty first half or another Jorge injury could really hurt his trade value even more, but I'll bet on him being better than last year rather than selling kinda low on him right now.

[Oleg]

Does it make me a hypocrite to talk about how valuable Heyward is but not want to trade Soler for Inciarte? I know what WAR says and all but it feels like Inciarte was at the peak of his value in 2015, which is a 3 win player mostly thanks to defense, and I feel like Soler's potential is still greater than that. To me the value lost by playing Heyward in CF (if there really is any, and I'm not convinced there is given how small Wrigley's CF is anyway and how much better Heyward's bat plays there) to keep Soler is less than the value lost by selling low on Jorge.

I dunno. Call me an idiot.

Wait...is trading Soler for Inciarte really a thing?  I don't think I'd want to do that deal, objectively speaking.  I'm not sure what the marginal wins added are in that deal.

Having said that, here's another piece of awesomeness about the Heyward deal.  It's probably the first time ever that Cameron has even suggested that an opt-out may be a win for the team giving it.

Yeah, supposedly the Cubs have inquired on Inciarte. Inciarte was  5.3 bWAR player, Fangraphs had him as a 3.3. So I mean if you're just using WAR he's inarguably better than what Soler was (0.1). But I feel like we saw the worst version of Jorge and the best version of Inciarte this year. I know there are very realistic reasons for thinking Jorge will never reach his peak, but I'd still rather keep him than trade him for a scrappy center fielder coming off a career year. If they're going to move him I'd prefer it be part of a package for a high end starter.

I think I'd have Apex levels of butthurt if they traded Soler for Inciarte.

Oh good, well that just leaves Eli to tell us all how dumb we are.

I don't really think there's a dumb side to this one. I think it depends what they're after. If they're really trying to maximize this next 2-3 years, Inciarte is a safer bet to provide value because he has a clearly established skill. Soler hasn't really proven he can do anything consistently well in the majors, besides look really good in a baseball uniform. But there's obviously reason to believe in his upside.

It's just a matter of floors and ceilings. Inciarte's a safe bet to be worth 2ish wins, and Jorge could probably range anywhere from 0 to 4 wins. I'm not sure I'd be all that thrilled about giving up Jorge for Inciarte but I can see the appeal, especially if it lets them have an elite defensive outfield at 2/3 spots and help cover for Schwarber's shortcomings out there.

Fair enough. I'm at the point now where I'd rather they wait till July 31st before they make a decision on trading Jorge. See how Heyward and Jorge together is working out (along with how Javy's bat and transition to playing some OF is coming along) before deciding you feel comfortable or not moving Jorge, and see if prices come down on starting pitching by then as well.

I know a shitty first half or another Jorge injury could really hurt his trade value even more, but I'll bet on him being better than last year rather than selling kinda low on him right now.

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Does it make me a hypocrite to talk about how valuable Heyward is but not want to trade Soler for Inciarte? I know what WAR says and all but it feels like Inciarte was at the peak of his value in 2015, which is a 3 win player mostly thanks to defense, and I feel like Soler's potential is still greater than that. To me the value lost by playing Heyward in CF (if there really is any, and I'm not convinced there is given how small Wrigley's CF is anyway and how much better Heyward's bat plays there) to keep Soler is less than the value lost by selling low on Jorge.

I dunno. Call me an idiot.

Wait...is trading Soler for Inciarte really a thing?  I don't think I'd want to do that deal, objectively speaking.  I'm not sure what the marginal wins added are in that deal.

Having said that, here's another piece of awesomeness about the Heyward deal.  It's probably the first time ever that Cameron has even suggested that an opt-out may be a win for the team giving it.

Yeah, supposedly the Cubs have inquired on Inciarte. Inciarte was  5.3 bWAR player, Fangraphs had him as a 3.3. So I mean if you're just using WAR he's inarguably better than what Soler was (0.1). But I feel like we saw the worst version of Jorge and the best version of Inciarte this year. I know there are very realistic reasons for thinking Jorge will never reach his peak, but I'd still rather keep him than trade him for a scrappy center fielder coming off a career year. If they're going to move him I'd prefer it be part of a package for a high end starter.

I think I'd have Apex levels of butthurt if they traded Soler for Inciarte.

Oh good, well that just leaves Eli to tell us all how dumb we are.

I don't really think there's a dumb side to this one. I think it depends what they're after. If they're really trying to maximize this next 2-3 years, Inciarte is a safer bet to provide value because he has a clearly established skill. Soler hasn't really proven he can do anything consistently well in the majors, besides look really good in a baseball uniform. But there's obviously reason to believe in his upside.

It's just a matter of floors and ceilings. Inciarte's a safe bet to be worth 2ish wins, and Jorge could probably range anywhere from 0 to 4 wins. I'm not sure I'd be all that thrilled about giving up Jorge for Inciarte but I can see the appeal, especially if it lets them have an elite defensive outfield at 2/3 spots and help cover for Schwarber's shortcomings out there.

Fair enough. I'm at the point now where I'd rather they wait till July 31st before they make a decision on trading Jorge. See how Heyward and Jorge together is working out (along with how Javy's bat and transition to playing some OF is coming along) before deciding you feel comfortable or not moving Jorge, and see if prices comes down on starting pitching by then as well.

I know a shitty first half or another Jorge injury could really hurt his trade value even more, but I'll bet on him being better than last year rather than selling kinda low on him right now.

I think the whole "9 consecutive trips to the plate resulting in at least 1 base" thing he did in the playoffs last year should serve as a nice little window into his potential.  I think the only thing that'll give other teams pause will be Soler's ability to stay healthy.  All things considered, his first half last year wasn't even really that "shitty", but in any event I'd be stunned if he doesn't do better next year across the board (again, health aside).

[Quality Start Machine]

Does it make me a hypocrite to talk about how valuable Heyward is but not want to trade Soler for Inciarte? I know what WAR says and all but it feels like Inciarte was at the peak of his value in 2015, which is a 3 win player mostly thanks to defense, and I feel like Soler's potential is still greater than that. To me the value lost by playing Heyward in CF (if there really is any, and I'm not convinced there is given how small Wrigley's CF is anyway and how much better Heyward's bat plays there) to keep Soler is less than the value lost by selling low on Jorge.

I dunno. Call me an idiot.

Wait...is trading Soler for Inciarte really a thing?  I don't think I'd want to do that deal, objectively speaking.  I'm not sure what the marginal wins added are in that deal.

Having said that, here's another piece of awesomeness about the Heyward deal.  It's probably the first time ever that Cameron has even suggested that an opt-out may be a win for the team giving it.

Yeah, supposedly the Cubs have inquired on Inciarte. Inciarte was  5.3 bWAR player, Fangraphs had him as a 3.3. So I mean if you're just using WAR he's inarguably better than what Soler was (0.1). But I feel like we saw the worst version of Jorge and the best version of Inciarte this year. I know there are very realistic reasons for thinking Jorge will never reach his peak, but I'd still rather keep him than trade him for a scrappy center fielder coming off a career year. If they're going to move him I'd prefer it be part of a package for a high end starter.

I think I'd have Apex levels of butthurt if they traded Soler for Inciarte.

Oh good, well that just leaves Eli to tell us all how dumb we are.

I don't really think there's a dumb side to this one. I think it depends what they're after. If they're really trying to maximize this next 2-3 years, Inciarte is a safer bet to provide value because he has a clearly established skill. Soler hasn't really proven he can do anything consistently well in the majors, besides look really good in a baseball uniform. But there's obviously reason to believe in his upside.

It's just a matter of floors and ceilings. Inciarte's a safe bet to be worth 2ish wins, and Jorge could probably range anywhere from 0 to 4 wins. I'm not sure I'd be all that thrilled about giving up Jorge for Inciarte but I can see the appeal, especially if it lets them have an elite defensive outfield at 2/3 spots and help cover for Schwarber's shortcomings out there.

Fair enough. I'm at the point now where I'd rather they wait till July 31st before they make a decision on trading Jorge. See how Heyward and Jorge together is working out (along with how Javy's bat and transition to playing some OF is coming along) before deciding you feel comfortable or not moving Jorge, and see if prices come down on starting pitching by then as well.

I know a shitty first half or another Jorge injury could really hurt his trade value even more, but I'll bet on him being better than last year rather than selling kinda low on him right now.

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

I'm pretty sure if anybody calls about Soler, Jed/Theo are listening. But there are worse ways to go into a season than Schwarber/Heyward/Soler as your outfield.

[Eli]

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

The rumor is Soler+ for Inciarte, for whatever that's worth. Picture it from the perspective of a Braves fan -- they'd probably be pissed that they gave up someone who was 33 times more valuable than Soler last year (and the two are only like 14 months apart in age, if you're trying to factor upside/improvement). Especially when Inciarte's primary skill is defense, which is pretty en vogue across MLB at the moment.

[Oleg]

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

The rumor is Soler+ for Inciarte, for whatever that's worth. Picture it from the perspective of a Braves fan -- they'd probably be pissed that they gave up someone who was 33 times more valuable than Soler last year (and the two are only like 14 months apart in age, if you're trying to factor upside/improvement). Especially when Inciarte's primary skill is defense, which is pretty en vogue across MLB at the moment.

I don't care.  I'm just going to hate this rumor to its death.

[SKO]

Does it make me a hypocrite to talk about how valuable Heyward is but not want to trade Soler for Inciarte? I know what WAR says and all but it feels like Inciarte was at the peak of his value in 2015, which is a 3 win player mostly thanks to defense, and I feel like Soler's potential is still greater than that. To me the value lost by playing Heyward in CF (if there really is any, and I'm not convinced there is given how small Wrigley's CF is anyway and how much better Heyward's bat plays there) to keep Soler is less than the value lost by selling low on Jorge.

I dunno. Call me an idiot.

Wait...is trading Soler for Inciarte really a thing?  I don't think I'd want to do that deal, objectively speaking.  I'm not sure what the marginal wins added are in that deal.

Having said that, here's another piece of awesomeness about the Heyward deal.  It's probably the first time ever that Cameron has even suggested that an opt-out may be a win for the team giving it.

Yeah, supposedly the Cubs have inquired on Inciarte. Inciarte was  5.3 bWAR player, Fangraphs had him as a 3.3. So I mean if you're just using WAR he's inarguably better than what Soler was (0.1). But I feel like we saw the worst version of Jorge and the best version of Inciarte this year. I know there are very realistic reasons for thinking Jorge will never reach his peak, but I'd still rather keep him than trade him for a scrappy center fielder coming off a career year. If they're going to move him I'd prefer it be part of a package for a high end starter.

I think I'd have Apex levels of butthurt if they traded Soler for Inciarte.

Oh good, well that just leaves Eli to tell us all how dumb we are.

I don't really think there's a dumb side to this one. I think it depends what they're after. If they're really trying to maximize this next 2-3 years, Inciarte is a safer bet to provide value because he has a clearly established skill. Soler hasn't really proven he can do anything consistently well in the majors, besides look really good in a baseball uniform. But there's obviously reason to believe in his upside.

It's just a matter of floors and ceilings. Inciarte's a safe bet to be worth 2ish wins, and Jorge could probably range anywhere from 0 to 4 wins. I'm not sure I'd be all that thrilled about giving up Jorge for Inciarte but I can see the appeal, especially if it lets them have an elite defensive outfield at 2/3 spots and help cover for Schwarber's shortcomings out there.

Fair enough. I'm at the point now where I'd rather they wait till July 31st before they make a decision on trading Jorge. See how Heyward and Jorge together is working out (along with how Javy's bat and transition to playing some OF is coming along) before deciding you feel comfortable or not moving Jorge, and see if prices comes down on starting pitching by then as well.

I know a shitty first half or another Jorge injury could really hurt his trade value even more, but I'll bet on him being better than last year rather than selling kinda low on him right now.

I think the whole "9 consecutive trips to the plate resulting in at least 1 base" thing he did in the playoffs last year should serve as a nice little window into his potential.  I think the only thing that'll give other teams pause will be Soler's ability to stay healthy.  All things considered, his first half last year wasn't even really that "shitty", but in any event I'd be stunned if he doesn't do better next year across the board (again, health aside).

Actually I think Jorge's surprisingly abysmal defense is the main reason people are down on him, followed shortly thereafter by health. I think most people are feeling more positive about his offense. For what it's worth if you include playoffs by my rough math (so probably wrong) Jorge hit .303/.403/.559/.962 with 8 HRs, a 14.7 BB% and a much more manageable K rate of 24.8% from August 1st-On. Even if you exclude the playoffs he had an .800 OPS in August/September.

[Saul Goodman]

Get amp'd for the most creative thing since the 2004 NSBB pitching staff shirts:

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2015/12/12/9927990/welcome-cubs-jason-heyward-hey-jude-parody

Only Alvin and his band of idiots could ruin both the Heyward signing and the Beatles.

Intrepid Reader Matt Spiegel:

Now that's a kid with some talent.

[Quality Start Machine]

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

The rumor is Soler+ for Inciarte, for whatever that's worth. Picture it from the perspective of a Braves fan -- they'd probably be pissed that they gave up someone who was 33 times more valuable than Soler last year (and the two are only like 14 months apart in age, if you're trying to factor upside/improvement). Especially when Inciarte's primary skill is defense, which is pretty en vogue across MLB at the moment.

But isn't defense a teachable skill? Even Ryan Braun manages to play the outfield without being in constant danger of spiking himself these days.

[SKO]

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

The rumor is Soler+ for Inciarte, for whatever that's worth. Picture it from the perspective of a Braves fan -- they'd probably be pissed that they gave up someone who was 33 times more valuable than Soler last year (and the two are only like 14 months apart in age, if you're trying to factor upside/improvement). Especially when Inciarte's primary skill is defense, which is pretty en vogue across MLB at the moment.

But isn't defense a teachable skill? Even Ryan Braun manages to play the outfield without being in constant danger of spiking himself these days.

To an extent, but I mean there's a reason there are still bad defensive players. Look at Hanley Ramirez in left field. No amount of coaching is fixing that. I personally don't believe Jorge is as bad as he looked this year, especially since bad defense didn't really seem like one of the knocks on him coming into this year, but it would be overly rosy to think he'll just magically be good. He'd have to stay healthy and hit consistently like he did in the second half to be more valuable than Inciarte, probably. It's up to you to decide how likely you think he is to do that. I personally think he can and will, but I'll admit bias there.

[Quality Start Machine]

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

The rumor is Soler+ for Inciarte, for whatever that's worth. Picture it from the perspective of a Braves fan -- they'd probably be pissed that they gave up someone who was 33 times more valuable than Soler last year (and the two are only like 14 months apart in age, if you're trying to factor upside/improvement). Especially when Inciarte's primary skill is defense, which is pretty en vogue across MLB at the moment.

But isn't defense a teachable skill? Even Ryan Braun manages to play the outfield without being in constant danger of spiking himself these days.

To an extent, but I mean there's a reason there are still bad defensive players. Look at Hanley Ramirez in left field. No amount of coaching is fixing that. I personally don't believe Jorge is as bad as he looked this year, especially since bad defense didn't really seem like one of the knocks on him coming into this year, but it would be overly rosy to think he'll just magically be good. He'd have to stay healthy and hit consistently like he did in the second half to be more valuable than Inciarte, probably. It's up to you to decide how likely you think he is to do that. I personally think he can and will, but I'll admit bias there.

If he hits like we think he will, "adequate" will be enough.

[Canadouche]

Actually I think Jorge's surprisingly abysmal defense is the main reason people are down on him, followed shortly thereafter by health. I think most people are feeling more positive about his offense. For what it's worth if you include playoffs by my rough math (so probably wrong) Jorge hit .303/.403/.559/.962 with 8 HRs, a 14.7 BB% and a much more manageable K rate of 24.8% from August 1st-On. Even if you exclude the playoffs he had an .800 OPS in August/September.

So, you're saying he can't play center field?

I have visions in my mind of Heyward charging across the outfield and making spectacular catches in front of Soler in center-right field, so the defense thing should hopefully not be an issue. The issue I'm really concerned with is Soler's health. But surely he's going to string together a year or two where he stays healthy. I'd be happy with the Cubs standing pat right now and letting things play out.

[SKO]

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

The rumor is Soler+ for Inciarte, for whatever that's worth. Picture it from the perspective of a Braves fan -- they'd probably be pissed that they gave up someone who was 33 times more valuable than Soler last year (and the two are only like 14 months apart in age, if you're trying to factor upside/improvement). Especially when Inciarte's primary skill is defense, which is pretty en vogue across MLB at the moment.

But isn't defense a teachable skill? Even Ryan Braun manages to play the outfield without being in constant danger of spiking himself these days.

To an extent, but I mean there's a reason there are still bad defensive players. Look at Hanley Ramirez in left field. No amount of coaching is fixing that. I personally don't believe Jorge is as bad as he looked this year, especially since bad defense didn't really seem like one of the knocks on him coming into this year, but it would be overly rosy to think he'll just magically be good. He'd have to stay healthy and hit consistently like he did in the second half to be more valuable than Inciarte, probably. It's up to you to decide how likely you think he is to do that. I personally think he can and will, but I'll admit bias there.

If he hits like we think he will, "adequate" will be enough.

Yeah, and we've certainly seen enough of Good Jorge to think that if there comes a year where he's healthy, hits like the top end of his projections, and doesn't spike himself in the dick every time he fields the ball he'll be an absolute monster, but it's asking a lot of a guy who has never done all three of those things for a full season to do them this year. It's understandable if Theo decides he'd rather gamble on Inciarte's 2 WAR floor and 3.5 WAR ceiling vs Jorge's 0.1 floor and 6 WAR ceiling. It'd just make me kinda sad, because I'm a sucker willing to gamble on that Soler ceiling and I think they've got a good enough team around him that they're not screwed  if he fails to reach it.

[D. Doluntap]

Even in that case, The Cubs should have plenty left to make a deal without giving up Soler.

The rumor is Soler+ for Inciarte, for whatever that's worth. Picture it from the perspective of a Braves fan -- they'd probably be pissed that they gave up someone who was 33 times more valuable than Soler last year (and the two are only like 14 months apart in age, if you're trying to factor upside/improvement). Especially when Inciarte's primary skill is defense, which is pretty en vogue across MLB at the moment.

But isn't defense a teachable skill? Even Ryan Braun manages to play the outfield without being in constant danger of spiking himself these days.

To an extent, but I mean there's a reason there are still bad defensive players. Look at Hanley Ramirez in left field. No amount of coaching is fixing that. I personally don't believe Jorge is as bad as he looked this year, especially since bad defense didn't really seem like one of the knocks on him coming into this year, but it would be overly rosy to think he'll just magically be good. He'd have to stay healthy and hit consistently like he did in the second half to be more valuable than Inciarte, probably. It's up to you to decide how likely you think he is to do that. I personally think he can and will, but I'll admit bias there.

If he hits like we think he will, "adequate" will be enough.

Yeah, and we've certainly seen enough of Good Jorge to think that if there comes a year where he's healthy, hits like the top end of his projections, and doesn't spike himself in the dick every time he fields the ball he'll be an absolute monster, but it's asking a lot of a guy who has never done all three of those things for a full season to do them this year. It's understandable if Theo decides he'd rather gamble on Inciarte's 2 WAR floor and 3.5 WAR ceiling vs Jorge's 0.1 floor and 6 WAR ceiling. It'd just make me kinda sad, because I'm a sucker willing to gamble on that Soler ceiling and I think they've got a good enough team around him that they're not screwed  if he fails to reach it.

Some of his gold chain enabled throws have been pretty sweet, though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOaYE14M5SA

[Oleg]

I just can't get enough of reading about this team.  Fuck Christmas and New Years.  Bring on Smarch already.