2015 Cubs Offseason: Building a Winner Around David Ross

[SKO]

Sorry for the gigantic fucking pictures, if someone knows how to shrink them I will happily edit them down. But the point remains: teams with young, talented, position player cores tend to just stay good for awhile, and many of the teams listed in that article didn't have the financial resources the Cubs have to keep adding to that core.

[SKO]

I don't know what happened to me where this stuff makes me numb but here we are.

It's a dry read, but I think it provides kind of a nice rebuttal to the idea that they are destined to regress a lot. They'll probably win fewer than 97 games, because that's really hard to do once let alone twice, but the idea that they will not even win 90 because trends is dumb.

[Quality Start Machine]

Sorry for the gigantic fucking pictures, if someone knows how to shrink them I will happily edit them down. But the point remains: teams with young, talented, position player cores tend to just stay good for awhile, and many of the teams listed in that article didn't have the financial resources the Cubs have to keep adding to that core.

I shrunk them down...use (bracket)IMG height=500(bracket), and you can adjust the number to whatever size you want.

[Slaky]

I don't know what happened to me where this stuff makes me numb but here we are.

It's a dry read, but I think it provides kind of a nice rebuttal to the idea that they are destined to regress a lot. They'll probably win fewer than 97 games, because that's really hard to do once let alone twice, but the idea that they will not even win 90 because trends is dumb.

That's just a fancy way of saying something like "only 19% of teams who lose the first two games of a series at home come back to win". It's not really relevant to that particular series. I don't care what happened to the 78 Expos. It's not relevant to the Cubs at all.

[SKO]

I don't know what happened to me where this stuff makes me numb but here we are.

It's a dry read, but I think it provides kind of a nice rebuttal to the idea that they are destined to regress a lot. They'll probably win fewer than 97 games, because that's really hard to do once let alone twice, but the idea that they will not even win 90 because trends is dumb.

That's just a fancy way of saying something like "only 19% of teams who lose the first two games of a series at home come back to win". It's not really relevant to that particular series. I don't care what happened to the 78 Expos. It's not relevant to the Cubs at all.

That's fair. I like the BP analysis though because it was looking specifically at teams that were built similarly to these Cubs, so their experiences would seem more relevant, vs just general application of the plexiglass principle because there are a thousand reasons a team might be bad one year, good the next, and then bad again. Most of the time the reason being that most of those teams just weren't that good.

You're right though, in the end historical trends don't really mean a damn thing to these Cubs. It says a lot about how good and deep and young they appear to be that the argument against them basically amounts to "well this is what happened to a bunch of other teams that aren't them in the past." It's just a more scientific way of being the Cardinals fan who is commenting "YEAH LOOKIT THE NATIONALS LAST YEAR HOWD THAT WORK OUT" on every article about the Cubs this offseason.

[R-V]

Some interesting nuggests in this Rosenthal piece.

Well, the Cubs will have four converted starters in their bullpen – that's right, four: left-handers Travis Wood and Clayton Richard, and right-handers Trevor Cahill and Adam Warren.

Maddon believes he can keep one or more of those pitchers stretched out, using them in stints of more than one inning. He also can use one or more as spot starters, inserting Cahill, for one, against teams that struggle against right-handed sinkers, providing extra rest for Lackey, righty Jake Arrieta and lefty Jon Lester early in the season.

Cubs officials fear that the idea is better in theory than it will be in practice: What if Warren, for example, emerges as the seventh-inning reliever and the Cubs suddenly need him as a starter in August? Well, by then, Sonny Gray or his equivalent might be in Chicago.

Maddon says that he thinks Candelario looks like Bobby Abreu from the left side, but that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sees more of a resemblance to Robinson Cano.

One Cubs veteran fears that a division of playing time between Soler and Schwarber in left could prove counter-productive, leading both to press. But the Cubs already have developed a plan to get at least 450 plate appearances for all four of their top outfielders, if everyone stays healthy.

Schwarber is expected to be the regular catcher for one of the Cubs' starting pitchers, getting 30-plus starts in that spot. A designated hitter will be needed for the 10 games that the Cubs will play in American League parks. Dexter Fowler, a switch-hitter, is better against lefties and could sit against certain righties. Heyward, likewise, could sit against certain lefties, staying fresh over say, 145 games instead of 155.

[SKO]

Some interesting nuggests in this Rosenthal piece.

Well, the Cubs will have four converted starters in their bullpen – that's right, four: left-handers Travis Wood and Clayton Richard, and right-handers Trevor Cahill and Adam Warren.

Maddon believes he can keep one or more of those pitchers stretched out, using them in stints of more than one inning. He also can use one or more as spot starters, inserting Cahill, for one, against teams that struggle against right-handed sinkers, providing extra rest for Lackey, righty Jake Arrieta and lefty Jon Lester early in the season.

Cubs officials fear that the idea is better in theory than it will be in practice: What if Warren, for example, emerges as the seventh-inning reliever and the Cubs suddenly need him as a starter in August? Well, by then, Sonny Gray or his equivalent might be in Chicago.

Maddon says that he thinks Candelario looks like Bobby Abreu from the left side, but that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sees more of a resemblance to Robinson Cano.

One Cubs veteran fears that a division of playing time between Soler and Schwarber in left could prove counter-productive, leading both to press. But the Cubs already have developed a plan to get at least 450 plate appearances for all four of their top outfielders, if everyone stays healthy.

Schwarber is expected to be the regular catcher for one of the Cubs' starting pitchers, getting 30-plus starts in that spot. A designated hitter will be needed for the 10 games that the Cubs will play in American League parks. Dexter Fowler, a switch-hitter, is better against lefties and could sit against certain righties. Heyward, likewise, could sit against certain lefties, staying fresh over say, 145 games instead of 155.

I figured that was pretty much their plan in the outfield but it's nice to have it confirmed that the team has laid it out in those exact terms.

Also Sonny Gray in Chicago would be orgasmic. I also don't think they've given up on Tyson Ross. Pretty sure one way or another there's another ace in the rotation by July.

[Eli]

Maddon says that he thinks Candelario looks like Bobby Abreu from the left side, but that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sees more of a resemblance to Robinson Cano.

I think he's like a polyhybrid blend of Barry Bonds and a left-handed Manny Ramirez.

[Quality Start Machine]

Maddon says that he thinks Candelario looks like Bobby Abreu from the left side, but that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sees more of a resemblance to Robinson Cano.

I think he's like a polyhybrid blend of Barry Bonds and a left-handed Manny Ramirez.

I see him as more of a Jim Ray Hart type, with possibly some aspects of Graig Nettles.

[SKO]

Maddon says that he thinks Candelario looks like Bobby Abreu from the left side, but that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sees more of a resemblance to Robinson Cano.

I think he's like a polyhybrid blend of Barry Bonds and a left-handed Manny Ramirez.

I see him as more of a Jim Ray Hart type, with possibly some aspects of Graig Nettles.

When the moon is full he transforms into a horrifying Adam Dunn/David Eckstein monstrosity. Theo should never have played god.

[InternetApex]

I don't know what happened to me where this stuff makes me numb but here we are.

tl;dr

Ask a Nationals fan where this team will be in three years.

[Bort]

Maddon says that he thinks Candelario looks like Bobby Abreu from the left side, but that president of baseball operations Theo Epstein sees more of a resemblance to Robinson Cano.

I think he's like a polyhybrid blend of Barry Bonds and a left-handed Manny Ramirez.

I see him as more of a Jim Ray Hart type, with possibly some aspects of Graig Nettles.

When the moon is full he transforms into a horrifying Adam Dunn/David Eckstein monstrosity. Theo should never have played god.

Good work everyone. Hit the showers.

[SKO]

So who should make the 25 man roster?

I figure these are locks:

C Montero                               
C Ross                                     
1B Rizzo                                 
2B Zobrist
3B Bryant
SS Russell
UTIL Baez
UTIL La Stella
OF Heyward
OF Fowler
OF Schwarber
OF Soler

SP Arrieta
SP Lester
SP Lackey
SP Hammel
SP Hendricks
RP Warren
RP Wood
RP Richard
RP Cahill
RP Grimm
RP Strop
RP Rondon

So that's 12 positions players, 12 pitchers. One spot left.

Who gets the last spot? Trueblood says we need to stop being obsessed with Neil Ramirez. That roster spot should clearly go to Asian Johnny Buckets or whatever's left of Shane Victorino or Matt Murton, I guess. I don't really see anyone else that's more deserving of that spot than stashing Neil in the back of the pen and hoping his velocity comes back eventually, but Trueblood has spoken.

Does Mendy get another shot? The Artist Formerly Known As CJ Edwards?

[Oleg]

So who should make the 25 man roster?

I figure these are locks:

C Montero                               
C Ross                                     
1B Rizzo                                 
2B Zobrist
3B Bryant
SS Russell
UTIL Baez
UTIL La Stella
OF Heyward
OF Fowler
OF Schwarber
OF Soler

SP Arrieta
SP Lester
SP Lackey
SP Hammel
SP Hendricks
RP Warren
RP Wood
RP Richard
RP Cahill
RP Grimm
RP Strop
RP Rondon

So that's 12 positions players, 12 pitchers. One spot left.

Who gets the last spot? Trueblood says we need to stop being obsessed with Neil Ramirez. That roster spot should clearly go to Asian Johnny Buckets or whatever's left of Shane Victorino or Matt Murton, I guess. I don't really see anyone else that's more deserving of that spot than stashing Neil in the back of the pen and hoping his velocity comes back eventually, but Trueblood has spoken.

Does Mendy get another shot? The Artist Formerly Known As CJ Edwards?

LaStella's hurt, right?  Or, dead.  Whatever.  His spot should get taken by someone who can play...does it matter whether it's an OF or an IF?  Fork is all over Andreoli, so there's your grit right there.  Which team team clearly needs.
They should probably keep a 13th pitcher, if they really are going to limit the starters a bit.  Giving Ramirez the spot is perfectly fine for me but I've been known to tolerate bullshit, so...

[Slaky]

So who should make the 25 man roster?

I figure these are locks:

C Montero                               
C Ross                                     
1B Rizzo                                 
2B Zobrist
3B Bryant
SS Russell
UTIL Baez
UTIL La Stella
OF Heyward
OF Fowler
OF Schwarber
OF Soler

SP Arrieta
SP Lester
SP Lackey
SP Hammel
SP Hendricks
RP Warren
RP Wood
RP Richard
RP Cahill
RP Grimm
RP Strop
RP Rondon

So that's 12 positions players, 12 pitchers. One spot left.

Who gets the last spot? Trueblood says we need to stop being obsessed with Neil Ramirez. That roster spot should clearly go to Asian Johnny Buckets or whatever's left of Shane Victorino or Matt Murton, I guess. I don't really see anyone else that's more deserving of that spot than stashing Neil in the back of the pen and hoping his velocity comes back eventually, but Trueblood has spoken.

Does Mendy get another shot? The Artist Formerly Known As CJ Edwards?

LaStella's hurt, right?  Or, dead.  Whatever.  His spot should get taken by someone who can play...does it matter whether it's an OF or an IF?  Fork is all over Andreoli, so there's your grit right there.  Which team team clearly needs.
They should probably keep a 13th pitcher, if they really are going to limit the starters a bit.  Giving Ramirez the spot is perfectly fine for me but I've been known to tolerate bullshit, so...

They start off in the AL, so they don't need to come out with as many pitchers, right?