The 2016 Cubs: SPLOOGE SPLOOGE SPLOOGE

[Oleg]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

I'll accept Hamelin as evidence of a sophomore slump and his career looks pretty remarkable, if you're into that sort of thing.

In '94, Hamelin walked in 15% of his PAs and K'd in about 16.5%.  His wRC+ was 146!  he had an amazing rookie year.  The next year, he probably went out and partied too much as everything went to shit, including his pretty good eye at the plate -- all of a sudden he only walked in <11% of his PAs and struck out at a much higher rate.  The following year, he was back to his rookie year self, for the most part, and was actually a better than average hitter for a couple more years.  In '95, his sophomore slump year, his BABIP fell off the table to under .200 but it was never very high to begin with.  It also normalized in '96 and '97.  In '98 he got only 190 or PAs and was out of the league in '99.

Charboneau just plain sucked...his rookie year was the outlier not his sophomore slump year.

[Oleg]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

[SKO]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

[Oleg]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

I got on a roll and went with it.  That was fun for me.

[Eli]

I had such high hopes for this thread.

[Saul Goodman]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

Intrepid Reader Billy Hamilton:

Hey...

[InternetApex]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

Right. A sophomore slump is probably just a thing people say when they're witnessing a shitty sophomore season by a guy who eventually washes out after one outlier of a rookie year. We'd have to poke around the interwebs pretty good to find a player who had a nice rookie year, had a sophomore slump (not due to injury) and then went on to a successful career. I'm sure there are a few, but who cares?

The real fear, unfounded as ever, would be that Russell actually sucks. I don't think so. And he's what, 12 years old in baseball player years?

[SKO]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

Right. A sophomore slump is probably just a thing people say when they're witnessing a shitty sophomore season by a guy who eventually washes out after one outlier of a rookie year. We'd have to poke around the interwebs pretty good to find a player who had a nice rookie year, had a sophomore slump (not due to injury) and then went on to a successful career. I'm sure there are a few, but who cares?

The real fear, unfounded as ever, would be that Russell actually sucks. I don't think so. And he's what, 12 years old in baseball player years?

Yeah, even if he were actually struggling he still has youth and inexperience on his side, but he's really not struggling. He's just hitting into shit luck. That's really all there is to it.

[flannj]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

Right. A sophomore slump is probably just a thing people say when they're witnessing a shitty sophomore season by a guy who eventually washes out after one outlier of a rookie year. We'd have to poke around the interwebs pretty good to find a player who had a nice rookie year, had a sophomore slump (not due to injury) and then went on to a successful career. I'm sure there are a few, but who cares?

The real fear, unfounded as ever, would be that Russell actually sucks. I don't think so. And he's what, 12 years old in baseball player years?

Yeah, even if he were actually struggling he still has youth and inexperience on his side, but he's really not struggling. He's just hitting into shit luck. That's really all there is to it.

Can he sing like Dwight Smith? Cuz that can make up for a lot.

[Quality Start Machine]

Or you get a Rookie Golden God like Kevin Maas, where he hits everything into the next galaxy until he starts seeing breaking balls.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

Yes for my part I was solidifying efforts to obliterate the notion of a "sophomore slump".  I just picked out 2 guys who off the top of my head had outlier rookie years and then came down to earth because they really weren't that good.  Not sure I need to see such a fine breakdown of Bob Hamelin's numbers but...thanks?

[CBStew]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

Yes for my part I was solidifying efforts to obliterate the notion of a "sophomore slump".  I just picked out 2 guys who off the top of my head had outlier rookie years and then came down to earth because they really weren't that good.  Not sure I need to see such a fine breakdown of Bob Hamelin's numbers but...thanks?

There is no such thing as a "sophomore slump".  It is simply a question of when the opposition catches up.
Every major leaguer who lasts more than one season has a "sophomore" season.  It is only those who have a substantial difference in statistics about whom we discuss the "sophomore slump".  They are the minority of players.  No one has the same batting average, same number of extra base hits, etc., season after season.  Some may have a letdown in their second year, some in their third, and so on.  It can take a while for pitchers to find holes in a batter's swing and for the word to get around.   
On the other hand, in another sport, there is Johnny Manziel.  I am sure that baseball has similar examples.

[D. Doluntap]

With sophomores, you always worry about whether or not they will adjust and improve or have a shitty second year. I admit I'm feeling a bit concerned about Addison, who admittedly is hitting balls hard. But the amazing thing about this team is that, with their offensive capabilities, there has to be close to zero stress on Russell to hit. The team isn't counting on his bat, so he can work out his druthers without feeling scrutinized/pressured. And sooner or later, I'm certain he'll begin hitting well again. It's kind of refreshing to not have to worry, even if worry is understandable.

Worry really isn't needed though. He's striking out less and walking more than last year. His hard/medium/soft contact % are all about the same as last year, and he's making more contact. His BABIP is just .231 this year vs .324 last year. He's showing all of the signs of an improved player, he's got shit luck right now. He's going to be pretty good once those balls start to drop. And when he has better batted ball luck.

And, the whole 'sophomore slump' narrative is kind of weak to begin with.

I mean, I'm not going to tell Kurt or anyone else when to worry but I would suggest worrying about something that's actually a thing.

Yeah, I wonder how much of the sophomore slump thing just came from players that weren't actually good getting off to hot starts and then cooling down the next year. I mean Angel Berroa didn't have a sophomore slump, he was just bad. Same with Real ROTY Randal Grichuk.

Bob Hamelin, Joe Charboneau...

Jerome Walton, Dwight Smith...

Jerome Walton was not a good baseball player to begin with.  He was a singles hitter who never walked and struck out too much.  His rookie year he rode a .337 BABIP into a whopping 103 wRC+.  The following year, in fact, he walk rate finally rose to an acceptable level at 11% but, as a slap hitter with no power, his BABIP also normalized to a .317 level  But, like I said, a slap hitter with no power who doesn't walk and doesn't do anything else very well just won't last int he league.

If you want to discuss adjustments, how about this one...he took about 6 years to figure the power thing out and, in '95, had a .235 ISO in 188 PAs for The Reds after barely even sniffing .100 in his career.  He had a 134 wRC+ in those 188 PAs.

Dwight Smith also didn't have a sophomore slump as much as he had a career slump.  He had a 148 wRC+ in '89.  Other than 348 PAs in '93, he was a pretty league average hitter for his career.  His BABIP was .347 in '89 and never touched those levels again.  So, meh.

I am enjoying this research you are doing but I think both of them were actually agreeing with us that the "sophomore slumps" are really just "surprising rookie was actually not good at baseball". I think they were just naming examples. I don't think Apex was trying to say Walton was good.

Right. A sophomore slump is probably just a thing people say when they're witnessing a shitty sophomore season by a guy who eventually washes out after one outlier of a rookie year. We'd have to poke around the interwebs pretty good to find a player who had a nice rookie year, had a sophomore slump (not due to injury) and then went on to a successful career. I'm sure there are a few, but who cares?

The real fear, unfounded as ever, would be that Russell actually sucks. I don't think so. And he's what, 12 years old in baseball player years?

Yeah, even if he were actually struggling he still has youth and inexperience on his side, but he's really not struggling. He's just hitting into shit luck. That's really all there is to it.

Can he sing like Dwight Smith? Cuz that can make up for a lot.

Good call! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owS91SfHj0A

[Shooter]

They are +39 against the Reds in five games.

[Saul Goodman]

They are +39 against the Reds in five games.

Suck it, Brennamans.