The 2016 Cubs: SPLOOGE SPLOOGE SPLOOGE

[morpheus]

Assuming for a moment that the Cubs can manage to go 22-21 the rest of the way (and they have 17 games still to come against the Brewers, Reds, Rockies and Padres), the Tards would need to go 35-7 (.833) in their remaining games to win the division.  Pissburgh would need to go 37-7 (.841).

Just sayin'.

Fangraphs has the Cubs chances of winning the division at 99.8%. Baseball Prospectus has them at 99.9%. I think it's gonna work out.

I do wonder how their % on fangraphs has gone down in the last week. They were at 99.9% going into the series vs the Cardinals up by 12 games, and since then they've increased their lead in the division by half a game and the magic number has only gone down. Not sure how they could be less likely to win the division now than they were then. Not like it matters, I'm just not a math person and would like to know why the formula dinged them ever so slightly for this last week.

I assume you're using this.  Looking at historical projections:

On 8/12: Cubs 99.9%, all others showing 0.0% due to rounding.

On 8/18: Cubs 99.8%, Cardinals 0.1%, Pirates 0.1%

Fangraphs is using a monte carlo simulation (I would guess, anyway) that does thousands of runs, simulating each team's performance for the rest of the season.  Based on that assumption, it appears to me that both the Cardinals and Pirates have increased their probabilities of winning the division slightly based on their relative performance the past few games.  Over their past 4 games the Pirates have gone 4-0 scoring 11,8,4,6 runs respectively.  Cardinals 4-0, scoring 8,6,8,8.  Cubs have gone 3-1, scoring 4,4,4,6.  This probably means that at the margin, the Cardinals and Pirates are projected to score slightly more runs than before, which would up their chances of winning the division ever so slightly.

Well there we go. I learned something today.

I was interested so I did a little more research: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/how-well-did-the-fangraphs-playoff-odds-work/

One of the more fan-accessible advanced stats are playoff odds [technically postseason probabilities]. Playoff odds range from 0% – 100% telling the fan the probability that a certain team will reach the MLB postseason. These are determined by creating a Monte Carlo simulation which runs the baseball season thousands of times [10,000 times specifically for FanGraphs]. In those simulations, if a team reaches the postseason 5,000 times, then the team is predicted to have a 50% probability for making the postseason. FanGraphs runs these every day, so playoff odds can be collected every day and show the story of a team's season if they are graphed.

So there you go. They apply the same principle to winning the division, etc.  They simply re-run the simulations daily for the rest of the season, using the end of the previous day as a starting point, and (probably) updating parameters based on actual performance to date.

[Canadouche]

Assuming for a moment that the Cubs can manage to go 22-21 the rest of the way (and they have 17 games still to come against the Brewers, Reds, Rockies and Padres), the Tards would need to go 35-7 (.833) in their remaining games to win the division.  Pissburgh would need to go 37-7 (.841).

Just sayin'.

Fangraphs has the Cubs chances of winning the division at 99.8%. Baseball Prospectus has them at 99.9%. I think it's gonna work out.

I do wonder how their % on fangraphs has gone down in the last week. They were at 99.9% going into the series vs the Cardinals up by 12 games, and since then they've increased their lead in the division by half a game and the magic number has only gone down. Not sure how they could be less likely to win the division now than they were then. Not like it matters, I'm just not a math person and would like to know why the formula dinged them ever so slightly for this last week.

I assume you're using this.  Looking at historical projections:

On 8/12: Cubs 99.9%, all others showing 0.0% due to rounding.

On 8/18: Cubs 99.8%, Cardinals 0.1%, Pirates 0.1%

Fangraphs is using a monte carlo simulation (I would guess, anyway) that does thousands of runs, simulating each team's performance for the rest of the season.  Based on that assumption, it appears to me that both the Cardinals and Pirates have increased their probabilities of winning the division slightly based on their relative performance the past few games.  Over their past 4 games the Pirates have gone 4-0 scoring 11,8,4,6 runs respectively.  Cardinals 4-0, scoring 8,6,8,8.  Cubs have gone 3-1, scoring 4,4,4,6.  This probably means that at the margin, the Cardinals and Pirates are projected to score slightly more runs than before, which would up their chances of winning the division ever so slightly.

Well there we go. I learned something today.

[CT III]

Assuming for a moment that the Cubs can manage to go 22-21 the rest of the way (and they have 17 games still to come against the Brewers, Reds, Rockies and Padres), the Tards would need to go 35-7 (.833) in their remaining games to win the division.  Pissburgh would need to go 37-7 (.841).

Just sayin'.

Fangraphs has the Cubs chances of winning the division at 99.8%. Baseball Prospectus has them at 99.9%. I think it's gonna work out.

I do wonder how their % on fangraphs has gone down in the last week. They were at 99.9% going into the series vs the Cardinals up by 12 games, and since then they've increased their lead in the division by half a game and the magic number has only gone down. Not sure how they could be less likely to win the division now than they were then. Not like it matters, I'm just not a math person and would like to know why the formula dinged them ever so slightly for this last week.

I assume you're using this.  Looking at historical projections:

On 8/12: Cubs 99.9%, all others showing 0.0% due to rounding.

On 8/18: Cubs 99.8%, Cardinals 0.1%, Pirates 0.1%

Fangraphs is using a monte carlo simulation (I would guess, anyway) that does thousands of runs, simulating each team's performance for the rest of the season.  Based on that assumption, it appears to me that both the Cardinals and Pirates have increased their probabilities of winning the division slightly based on their relative performance the past few games.  Over their past 4 games the Pirates have gone 4-0 scoring 11,8,4,6 runs respectively.  Cardinals 4-0, scoring 8,6,8,8.  Cubs have gone 3-1, scoring 4,4,4,6.  This probably means that at the margin, the Cardinals and Pirates are projected to score slightly more runs than before, which would up their chances of winning the division ever so slightly.

Well there we go. I learned something today.

Has Nate Silver weighed in yet?

Yes: 183 lbs. /Chorkjoke

[Quality Start Machine]

Magic numbers:

31 for the division.
38 for best overall in NL.

We'd all be shooting population porridge like an army of Peter Norths if we were at this stage in September 1, which is still 2 weeks away.

[SKO]

Magic numbers:

31 for the division.
38 for best overall in NL.

We'd all be shooting population porridge like an army of Peter Norths if we were at this stage in September 1, which is still 2 weeks away.

I am looking forward to them clinching early enough that they can rest the rotation. A well rested Jake in the playoffs will hopefully be a much different beast than the NLDS/NLCS tired Jake we got last year.

Of course if they lose we can look forward to narratives about how Joe went too easy on them after they clinched and then they lost their edge.

[Tony]

Speaking of a well rested starting rotation.... what are they going to do with all 5 of these Cy Young contenders come playoff time?

[Canadouche]

Speaking of a well rested starting rotation.... what are they going to do with all 5 of these Cy Young contenders come playoff time?

I think I'd go Arrieta - Lester - Hendricks - Hamel, and let Lackey watch bitterly from the dugout.

[R-V]

We'd all be shooting population porridge like an army of Peter Norths

Delete your account

[SKO]

If Hammel can keep this up I'd start him over Lackey, but I'd love to be a fly on the wall when Joe tells John he's not in the playoff rotation.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

We'd all be shooting population porridge like an army of Peter Norths

Delete your account

[Tony]

If Hammel can keep this up I'd start him over Lackey, but I'd love to be a fly on the wall when Joe tells John he's not in the playoff rotation.

He can tell Lackey right after he tells Heyward that Bryant is playing right with Jorge in left.

[Eli]

We'd all be shooting population porridge like an army of Peter Norths

Delete your account

That was weird even by Fork standards.

[Tony]

We'd all be shooting population porridge like an army of Peter Norths

Delete your account

That was weird even by Fork standards.

Yeah it should have been platoon instead of army. The alliteration would have sounded better.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Matt Szczur is good. Matt Szczur is good? Matt Szczur is good.

[WTB...A RING FFS!!]

WTF's up with all these damn walks? Have they been that wild, umps squeezing them or combo? Cuz I honestly can't remember the last time I saw them give out 10.