The 2016 Cubs: SPLOOGE SPLOOGE SPLOOGE

[Slaky]

So, how much money should the Cubs spend on Arrieta?

It's not my money, except for the cash they collect in jersey, ticket, and concession purchases, but I wouldn't have a problem with Arrieta receiving a similar length and similar, if not slightly more, pay.

I'd be fine extending him until he's 35 or so. Not so excited to get into his later 30s with a huge contract.

On the other hand, for as awesome as the whole organization has become, the minor leagues are still pretty barren in terms of pitching talent. I don't know that there are more than 2-3 guys who have a reasonable shot at sticking in a rotation long-term. That might make them more eager to keep Arrieta around.

Simplified: pay Arrieta or pay some free agent. I think that makes the choice clear. Unless you think cobbling a rotation together behind this kind of offensive starpower while your window is wide open is a good idea. Hint - it isn't.

It's hard to envision a Cubs rotation without Lester and Arrieta at the top of it for the next 4-5 seasons barring injury. Filling in the rest will be a matter of how hard they lean on teams at each season's deadline/winter meetings. Lackey, Hammel, and Hendricks - I bet you can remove two of them by 2018 if not all three. One of Hammel/Hendricks could easily be replaced by August.

I guess what I'm saying is - they're going to sign Jake. I don't really see an alternative.

[PenFoe]

Just got an MLB alert that Strasburg and the Nationals have agreed on a 7-year, $175MM extension. With him off the market does this change anything in the Arrieta negotiations/non-negotiations for the Cubs? I wonder if Strasburg might have been a top target for Theo and Jed. Obviously it doesn't make Jake any younger, but maybe they'd be more willing to come closer to the number of years he wants now.

Not sure Jed & Theo would ever go long and heavy on any starting pitcher that has Dusty's fingerprints on him.

But I can't imagine Boras not wanting to test the open market.

This is funny because Strasburg is a Boras client.

Yeah, but do you think Jake doesn't get at least 7/210 on the open market? That's a pretty big jump from Strasburg's deal.

Depends. Both have their knocks. Strasburg is younger than Arrieta, he's also had TJS. Arrieta is potentially less of an injury risk but then he's also going to be on the wrong side of 30 and has had only one full season.

I have no idea what the motivation is for Strasburg to sign that deal a mere 4 months ahead of free agency.  That seems weird.  But, he has two opt outs including the first one after his age-31 season, or the age Arrieta will be when he hits free agency.  I have no idea how the contract is structured but, assuming he rakes in a cool 75 mil and has the opportunity to hit free agency again at 31?  If Arrieta is good for 7/210, would Strasburg come close?  So, that would make it a 10-year/$285mm in earnings.  I don't think Arrieta is getting anywhere near that.

I guess, in other words, this is probably a bad comp for the Arrieta negotiations.

As much hand-wringing as there was at the time, maybe Strasburg has actually come to appreciate where the Nationals were coming from when they shut him down way back when to save his arm.

Can't think of too many reasons he'd sign this right now.

Unless he's fearful of going on the DL for the 7th time between now and the end of the season and hurting his value.

[Oleg]

Just got an MLB alert that Strasburg and the Nationals have agreed on a 7-year, $175MM extension. With him off the market does this change anything in the Arrieta negotiations/non-negotiations for the Cubs? I wonder if Strasburg might have been a top target for Theo and Jed. Obviously it doesn't make Jake any younger, but maybe they'd be more willing to come closer to the number of years he wants now.

Not sure Jed & Theo would ever go long and heavy on any starting pitcher that has Dusty's fingerprints on him.

But I can't imagine Boras not wanting to test the open market.

This is funny because Strasburg is a Boras client.

Yeah, but do you think Jake doesn't get at least 7/210 on the open market? That's a pretty big jump from Strasburg's deal.

Depends. Both have their knocks. Strasburg is younger than Arrieta, he's also had TJS. Arrieta is potentially less of an injury risk but then he's also going to be on the wrong side of 30 and has had only one full season.

I have no idea what the motivation is for Strasburg to sign that deal a mere 4 months ahead of free agency.  That seems weird.  But, he has two opt outs including the first one after his age-31 season, or the age Arrieta will be when he hits free agency.  I have no idea how the contract is structured but, assuming he rakes in a cool 75 mil and has the opportunity to hit free agency again at 31?  If Arrieta is good for 7/210, would Strasburg come close?  So, that would make it a 10-year/$285mm in earnings.  I don't think Arrieta is getting anywhere near that.

I guess, in other words, this is probably a bad comp for the Arrieta negotiations.

As much hand-wringing as there was at the time, maybe Strasburg has actually come to appreciate where the Nationals were coming from when they shut him down way back when to save his arm.

Can't think of too many reasons he'd sign this right now.

Unless he's fearful of going on the DL for the 7th time between now and the end of the season and hurting his value.

Maybe this really is a market-value contract for him.  I figure there are two ways to look at it:

1. He's worried about his health and wanted to security.
2. He's completely not worried about his health and wanted the chance to cash in in three years with the opt-out.

[Eli]

As much hand-wringing as there was at the time, maybe Strasburg has actually come to appreciate where the Nationals were coming from when they shut him down way back when to save his arm.

Stupidity?

[SKO]

Just got an MLB alert that Strasburg and the Nationals have agreed on a 7-year, $175MM extension. With him off the market does this change anything in the Arrieta negotiations/non-negotiations for the Cubs? I wonder if Strasburg might have been a top target for Theo and Jed. Obviously it doesn't make Jake any younger, but maybe they'd be more willing to come closer to the number of years he wants now.

Not sure Jed & Theo would ever go long and heavy on any starting pitcher that has Dusty's fingerprints on him.

But I can't imagine Boras not wanting to test the open market.

This is funny because Strasburg is a Boras client.

Yeah, but do you think Jake doesn't get at least 7/210 on the open market? That's a pretty big jump from Strasburg's deal.

Depends. Both have their knocks. Strasburg is younger than Arrieta, he's also had TJS. Arrieta is potentially less of an injury risk but then he's also going to be on the wrong side of 30 and has had only one full season.

I have no idea what the motivation is for Strasburg to sign that deal a mere 4 months ahead of free agency.  That seems weird.  But, he has two opt outs including the first one after his age-31 season, or the age Arrieta will be when he hits free agency.  I have no idea how the contract is structured but, assuming he rakes in a cool 75 mil and has the opportunity to hit free agency again at 31?  If Arrieta is good for 7/210, would Strasburg come close?  So, that would make it a 10-year/$285mm in earnings.  I don't think Arrieta is getting anywhere near that.

I guess, in other words, this is probably a bad comp for the Arrieta negotiations.

As much hand-wringing as there was at the time, maybe Strasburg has actually come to appreciate where the Nationals were coming from when they shut him down way back when to save his arm.

Can't think of too many reasons he'd sign this right now.

Unless he's fearful of going on the DL for the 7th time between now and the end of the season and hurting his value.

Maybe this really is a market-value contract for him.  I figure there are two ways to look at it:

1. He's worried about his health and wanted to security.
2. He's completely not worried about his health and wanted the chance to cash in in three years with the opt-out.

I'm guessing the opt out was the clincher. If you're Strasburg and you know that you can still have a shot at a bigger deal three years from now if all goes well, or make 175 million even if your arm falls off tomorrow, you'd be dumb not to take that deal.

[Oleg]

Just got an MLB alert that Strasburg and the Nationals have agreed on a 7-year, $175MM extension. With him off the market does this change anything in the Arrieta negotiations/non-negotiations for the Cubs? I wonder if Strasburg might have been a top target for Theo and Jed. Obviously it doesn't make Jake any younger, but maybe they'd be more willing to come closer to the number of years he wants now.

Not sure Jed & Theo would ever go long and heavy on any starting pitcher that has Dusty's fingerprints on him.

But I can't imagine Boras not wanting to test the open market.

This is funny because Strasburg is a Boras client.

Yeah, but do you think Jake doesn't get at least 7/210 on the open market? That's a pretty big jump from Strasburg's deal.

Depends. Both have their knocks. Strasburg is younger than Arrieta, he's also had TJS. Arrieta is potentially less of an injury risk but then he's also going to be on the wrong side of 30 and has had only one full season.

I have no idea what the motivation is for Strasburg to sign that deal a mere 4 months ahead of free agency.  That seems weird.  But, he has two opt outs including the first one after his age-31 season, or the age Arrieta will be when he hits free agency.  I have no idea how the contract is structured but, assuming he rakes in a cool 75 mil and has the opportunity to hit free agency again at 31?  If Arrieta is good for 7/210, would Strasburg come close?  So, that would make it a 10-year/$285mm in earnings.  I don't think Arrieta is getting anywhere near that.

I guess, in other words, this is probably a bad comp for the Arrieta negotiations.

As much hand-wringing as there was at the time, maybe Strasburg has actually come to appreciate where the Nationals were coming from when they shut him down way back when to save his arm.

Can't think of too many reasons he'd sign this right now.

Unless he's fearful of going on the DL for the 7th time between now and the end of the season and hurting his value.

Maybe this really is a market-value contract for him.  I figure there are two ways to look at it:

1. He's worried about his health and wanted to security.
2. He's completely not worried about his health and wanted the chance to cash in in three years with the opt-out.

I'm guessing the opt out was the clincher. If you're Strasburg and you know that you can still have a shot at a bigger deal three years from now if all goes well, or make 175 million even if your arm falls off tomorrow, you'd be dumb not to take that deal.

Well, yeah.  Without the opt-out, he's easily worth the 7/210, right?  I'm guessing the opt-out is pretty much the only thing that got him to sign?

It's getting weird how fascinated I am about all this.  Boras client signs extension before hitting free agency, with two opt-outs...etc, etc.  This is great for me.

[PenFoe]

Just got an MLB alert that Strasburg and the Nationals have agreed on a 7-year, $175MM extension. With him off the market does this change anything in the Arrieta negotiations/non-negotiations for the Cubs? I wonder if Strasburg might have been a top target for Theo and Jed. Obviously it doesn't make Jake any younger, but maybe they'd be more willing to come closer to the number of years he wants now.

Not sure Jed & Theo would ever go long and heavy on any starting pitcher that has Dusty's fingerprints on him.

But I can't imagine Boras not wanting to test the open market.

This is funny because Strasburg is a Boras client.

Yeah, but do you think Jake doesn't get at least 7/210 on the open market? That's a pretty big jump from Strasburg's deal.

Depends. Both have their knocks. Strasburg is younger than Arrieta, he's also had TJS. Arrieta is potentially less of an injury risk but then he's also going to be on the wrong side of 30 and has had only one full season.

I have no idea what the motivation is for Strasburg to sign that deal a mere 4 months ahead of free agency.  That seems weird.  But, he has two opt outs including the first one after his age-31 season, or the age Arrieta will be when he hits free agency.  I have no idea how the contract is structured but, assuming he rakes in a cool 75 mil and has the opportunity to hit free agency again at 31?  If Arrieta is good for 7/210, would Strasburg come close?  So, that would make it a 10-year/$285mm in earnings.  I don't think Arrieta is getting anywhere near that.

I guess, in other words, this is probably a bad comp for the Arrieta negotiations.

As much hand-wringing as there was at the time, maybe Strasburg has actually come to appreciate where the Nationals were coming from when they shut him down way back when to save his arm.

Can't think of too many reasons he'd sign this right now.

Unless he's fearful of going on the DL for the 7th time between now and the end of the season and hurting his value.

Maybe this really is a market-value contract for him.  I figure there are two ways to look at it:

1. He's worried about his health and wanted to security.
2. He's completely not worried about his health and wanted the chance to cash in in three years with the opt-out.

I'm guessing the opt out was the clincher. If you're Strasburg and you know that you can still have a shot at a bigger deal three years from now if all goes well, or make 175 million even if your arm falls off tomorrow, you'd be dumb not to take that deal.

Well, yeah.  Without the opt-out, he's easily worth the 7/210, right?  I'm guessing the opt-out is pretty much the only thing that got him to sign?

It's getting weird how fascinated I am about all this.  Boras client signs extension before hitting free agency, with two opt-outs...etc, etc.  This is great for me.

Are you hitting the open market soon?

[Quality Start Machine]

1. He's worried about his health and wanted to security.
2. He's completely not worried about his health and wanted the chance to cash in in three years with the opt-out.

I'm not sure having the extra dough will help him security.

[Oleg]

Just got an MLB alert that Strasburg and the Nationals have agreed on a 7-year, $175MM extension. With him off the market does this change anything in the Arrieta negotiations/non-negotiations for the Cubs? I wonder if Strasburg might have been a top target for Theo and Jed. Obviously it doesn't make Jake any younger, but maybe they'd be more willing to come closer to the number of years he wants now.

Not sure Jed & Theo would ever go long and heavy on any starting pitcher that has Dusty's fingerprints on him.

But I can't imagine Boras not wanting to test the open market.

This is funny because Strasburg is a Boras client.

Yeah, but do you think Jake doesn't get at least 7/210 on the open market? That's a pretty big jump from Strasburg's deal.

Depends. Both have their knocks. Strasburg is younger than Arrieta, he's also had TJS. Arrieta is potentially less of an injury risk but then he's also going to be on the wrong side of 30 and has had only one full season.

I have no idea what the motivation is for Strasburg to sign that deal a mere 4 months ahead of free agency.  That seems weird.  But, he has two opt outs including the first one after his age-31 season, or the age Arrieta will be when he hits free agency.  I have no idea how the contract is structured but, assuming he rakes in a cool 75 mil and has the opportunity to hit free agency again at 31?  If Arrieta is good for 7/210, would Strasburg come close?  So, that would make it a 10-year/$285mm in earnings.  I don't think Arrieta is getting anywhere near that.

I guess, in other words, this is probably a bad comp for the Arrieta negotiations.

As much hand-wringing as there was at the time, maybe Strasburg has actually come to appreciate where the Nationals were coming from when they shut him down way back when to save his arm.

Can't think of too many reasons he'd sign this right now.

Unless he's fearful of going on the DL for the 7th time between now and the end of the season and hurting his value.

Maybe this really is a market-value contract for him.  I figure there are two ways to look at it:

1. He's worried about his health and wanted to security.
2. He's completely not worried about his health and wanted the chance to cash in in three years with the opt-out.

I'm guessing the opt out was the clincher. If you're Strasburg and you know that you can still have a shot at a bigger deal three years from now if all goes well, or make 175 million even if your arm falls off tomorrow, you'd be dumb not to take that deal.

Well, yeah.  Without the opt-out, he's easily worth the 7/210, right?  I'm guessing the opt-out is pretty much the only thing that got him to sign?

It's getting weird how fascinated I am about all this.  Boras client signs extension before hitting free agency, with two opt-outs...etc, etc.  This is great for me.

Are you hitting the open market soon?

I'm perpetually on the open market.

[Saul Goodman]

Boras is getting soft; quick, lock down all his Cubs clients for cheap!

[CBStew]

As many of you know, I have been a Cub fan since before Roy Smalley was sailing what should have been routine groundouts into the first base dugout.   I was a Cub fan when Hal Jeffcoat  was playing  right field, not pitching.  When I first became a Cub fan I was shorter than Peanuts Lowery.  This is the best Cub team in my lifetime of miserable Cub fanhood. 

[Quality Start Machine]

As many of you know, I have been a Cub fan since before Roy Smalley was sailing what should have been routine groundouts into the first base dugout.   I was a Cub fan when Hal Jeffcoat  was playing  right field, not pitching.  When I first became a Cub fan I was shorter than Peanuts Lowery.  This is the best Cub team in my lifetime of miserable Cub fanhood. 

You've earned it.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

As many of you know, I have been a Cub fan since before Roy Smalley was sailing what should have been routine groundouts into the first base dugout.   I was a Cub fan when Hal Jeffcoat  was playing  right field, not pitching.  When I first became a Cub fan I was shorter than Peanuts Lowery.  This is the best Cub team in my lifetime of miserable Cub fanhood. 

Apropos of nothing, but I read this about 1 minute before Javier Baez sailed one into the stands.

[Saul Goodman]

As many of you know, I have been a Cub fan since before Roy Smalley was sailing what should have been routine groundouts into the first base dugout.   I was a Cub fan when Hal Jeffcoat  was playing  right field, not pitching.  When I first became a Cub fan I was shorter than Peanuts Lowery.  This is the best Cub team in my lifetime of miserable Cub fanhood. 

Apropos of nothing, but I read this about 1 minute before Javier Baez sailed one into the stands.

Am I watching the wrong game today?

[Saul Goodman]

As Lou Brown once said, I think you can go get him now.