The 2016 Cubs: SPLOOGE SPLOOGE SPLOOGE

[SKO]

Removing the 5-15 span that tested our sanity, the Cubs would be 95-41, a .699 winning percentage, which would've put them on pace for a 113-win season. So as good as they've been, their win total doesn't reflect how good they actually are. That's kind of crazy.

Their Pythagorean win-loss record is 105-51. By Pythagorean record only two teams have had worse luck than the Cubs, the Twins and the Rays. Fire Maddon.

[Oleg]

Removing the 5-15 span that tested our sanity, the Cubs would be 95-41, a .699 winning percentage, which would've put them on pace for a 113-win season. So as good as they've been, their win total doesn't reflect how good they actually are. That's kind of crazy.

Their Pythagorean win-loss record is 105-51. By Pythagorean record only two teams have had worse luck than the Cubs, the Twins and the Rays. Fire Maddon.

Based on how many runs they should have scored, the 2nd order record, is 112-44.  Their clutch hitting is obviously terrible.  Epstink is terrible.

In all seriousness, this is remarkable.  We shouldn't gloss over this.  This. Fucking. Team.

[Quality Start Machine]

My question is, at what point is this season considered a success/failure?

While this team isn't set up for a one-and-done, all the ducks are in a row for a championship. Last year, making the playoffs was great, knocking off the Cards was gravy. The expectations based upon what was done last winter and during the season has changed the goal.

This year, I'd think anything less than a parade is a disappointment.

[SKO]

My question is, at what point is this season considered a success/failure?

While this team isn't set up for a one-and-done, all the ducks are in a row for a championship. Last year, making the playoffs was great, knocking off the Cards was gravy. The expectations based upon what was done last winter and during the season has changed the goal.

This year, I'd think anything less than a parade is a disappointment.

Anything less than winning the world series is a disappointment, anything less than getting there would be a failure.

[Grandmaster Wang]

Well, I'll be That Guy. 100+ wins. Good shot of winning the division by 20+ games. Best team in baseball all season long, by a pretty considerable margin.

This is by far the best Cubs team I've ever witnessed in my 44 years. Not to mention the most fun.

I can definitely agree that the words "disappointment" and "failure" might be appropriate to describe a playoff push that ends short of a championship or at least WS appearance.

But the season? Nah, the season is already nothing short of a first-in-my-lifetime success, and nothing that could possibly happen from here on out can change that.

Especially factoring in that they've already well established that this is no one-year-wonder type of deal. They're still getting better, and even if it doesn't happen this year, the window isn't just wide the fuck open, it's actually getting wider. Now don't get me wrong, I'm 100% down with "strike now, the future is promised to no one." I get it. Win. It could very well be that ten years from now we look back and it turns out 2016 was in fact their best shot, and they blew it. At which point, it will in fact have been a huge, soul-crushing disappointment and failure. But that's a conclusion that can only be made with years of hindsight, and in the meantime, I sure as hell ain't betting on that being how it ends up going down.

It's really all moot anyway, because this shit is happening. Now. For real. This is BONERTIME. The Season of Splooge. Disappointment and/or failure are simply not realistic outcomes. High five.

[SKO]

Well, I'll be That Guy. 100+ wins. Good shot of winning the division by 20+ games. Best team in baseball all season long, by a pretty considerable margin.

This is by far the best Cubs team I've ever witnessed in my 44 years. Not to mention the most fun.

I can definitely agree that the words "disappointment" and "failure" might be appropriate to describe a playoff push that ends short of a championship or at least WS appearance.

But the season? Nah, the season is already nothing short of a first-in-my-lifetime success, and nothing that could possibly happen from here on out can change that.

Especially factoring in that they've already well established that this is no one-year-wonder type of deal. They're still getting better, and even if it doesn't happen this year, the window isn't just wide the fuck open, it's actually getting wider. Now don't get me wrong, I'm 100% down with "strike now, the future is promised to no one." I get it. Win. It could very well be that ten years from now we look back and it turns out 2016 was in fact their best shot, and they blew it. At which point, it will in fact have been a huge, soul-crushing disappointment and failure. But that's a conclusion that can only be made with years of hindsight, and in the meantime, I sure as hell ain't betting on that being how it ends up going down.

It's really all moot anyway, because this shit is happening. Now. For real. This is BONERTIME. The Season of Splooge. Disappointment and/or failure are simply not realistic outcomes. High five.

I know this is a common perception, and they should be good for years to come, but they won't be better than this. They will not have a historically great defense every year. Arrieta/Lester/Lackey will be another year older, then Arrieta might be gone. Kyle Hendricks may never put up a sub 2 ERA ever again. This is the best team they will field simply because it might be the best team anyone has fielded since the 1998 Yankees, it will be very hard to quantify this as anything other than a disappointment if they don't take advantage of this opportunity.

Doesn't mean anything other than "playoffs are random" will be to blame. Doesn't mean anyone will have to choke or fuck up or that Theo missed some key flaw in the team's construction, but it will be a disappointment.

[Canadouche]

Well, I'll be That Guy. 100+ wins. Good shot of winning the division by 20+ games. Best team in baseball all season long, by a pretty considerable margin.

This is by far the best Cubs team I've ever witnessed in my 44 years. Not to mention the most fun.

I can definitely agree that the words "disappointment" and "failure" might be appropriate to describe a playoff push that ends short of a championship or at least WS appearance.

But the season? Nah, the season is already nothing short of a first-in-my-lifetime success, and nothing that could possibly happen from here on out can change that.

Especially factoring in that they've already well established that this is no one-year-wonder type of deal. They're still getting better, and even if it doesn't happen this year, the window isn't just wide the fuck open, it's actually getting wider. Now don't get me wrong, I'm 100% down with "strike now, the future is promised to no one." I get it. Win. It could very well be that ten years from now we look back and it turns out 2016 was in fact their best shot, and they blew it. At which point, it will in fact have been a huge, soul-crushing disappointment and failure. But that's a conclusion that can only be made with years of hindsight, and in the meantime, I sure as hell ain't betting on that being how it ends up going down.

It's really all moot anyway, because this shit is happening. Now. For real. This is BONERTIME. The Season of Splooge. Disappointment and/or failure are simply not realistic outcomes. High five.

I know this is a common perception, and they should be good for years to come, but they won't be better than this. They will not have a historically great defense every year. Arrieta/Lester/Lackey will be another year older, then Arrieta might be gone. Kyle Hendricks may never put up a sub 2 ERA ever again. This is the best team they will field simply because it might be the best team anyone has fielded since the 1998 Yankees, it will be very hard to quantify this as anything other than a disappointment if they don't take advantage of this opportunity.

Doesn't mean anything other than "playoffs are random" will be to blame. Doesn't mean anyone will have to choke or fuck up or that Theo missed some key flaw in the team's construction, but it will be a disappointment.

I wouldn't go so far. Without making a single move, the Cubs will be adding an offensive force to their outfield next year through Schwarber. Nobody expects the pitching to improve, it only has to maintain. The offense has not peaked. 

That said, I fully expect the Cubs to try to upgrade on Hammel. The "easy" solution is grabbing a younger starter from a rebuilding team, whose contract they would control for a few years.

[SKO]

Well, I'll be That Guy. 100+ wins. Good shot of winning the division by 20+ games. Best team in baseball all season long, by a pretty considerable margin.

This is by far the best Cubs team I've ever witnessed in my 44 years. Not to mention the most fun.

I can definitely agree that the words "disappointment" and "failure" might be appropriate to describe a playoff push that ends short of a championship or at least WS appearance.

But the season? Nah, the season is already nothing short of a first-in-my-lifetime success, and nothing that could possibly happen from here on out can change that.

Especially factoring in that they've already well established that this is no one-year-wonder type of deal. They're still getting better, and even if it doesn't happen this year, the window isn't just wide the fuck open, it's actually getting wider. Now don't get me wrong, I'm 100% down with "strike now, the future is promised to no one." I get it. Win. It could very well be that ten years from now we look back and it turns out 2016 was in fact their best shot, and they blew it. At which point, it will in fact have been a huge, soul-crushing disappointment and failure. But that's a conclusion that can only be made with years of hindsight, and in the meantime, I sure as hell ain't betting on that being how it ends up going down.

It's really all moot anyway, because this shit is happening. Now. For real. This is BONERTIME. The Season of Splooge. Disappointment and/or failure are simply not realistic outcomes. High five.

I know this is a common perception, and they should be good for years to come, but they won't be better than this. They will not have a historically great defense every year. Arrieta/Lester/Lackey will be another year older, then Arrieta might be gone. Kyle Hendricks may never put up a sub 2 ERA ever again. This is the best team they will field simply because it might be the best team anyone has fielded since the 1998 Yankees, it will be very hard to quantify this as anything other than a disappointment if they don't take advantage of this opportunity.

Doesn't mean anything other than "playoffs are random" will be to blame. Doesn't mean anyone will have to choke or fuck up or that Theo missed some key flaw in the team's construction, but it will be a disappointment.

I wouldn't go so far. Without making a single move, the Cubs will be adding an offensive force to their outfield next year through Schwarber. Nobody expects the pitching to improve, it only has to maintain. The offense has not peaked.  

That said, I fully expect the Cubs to try to upgrade on Hammel. The "easy" solution is grabbing a younger starter from a rebuilding team, whose contract they would control for a few years.

Simply "maintaining" a historically great run prevention pace, especially with at least three starting pitchers well into their 30s and with another year of heavy innings loads on their arms, is not a simple task in the slightest. "just need to maintain arguably one of the best rotations in MLB history" is unbelievably difficult. The Cardinals had a historically good rotation last year and it fell to pieces this year. These Cubs are better and more talented than those Cardinals pitchers were, but there's still matters of luck, health, etc that will not be repeated next year.

They are adding Schwarber's offense, yes, but that also means they are adding his defense and baserunning, not to mention they are likely to lose Dexter Fowler and replace him with an unknown offensive quantity in Albert Almora. Kris Bryant will probably not put up almost 9 wins a year every year, Bryce Harper managed over 9 WAR last year and this year he won't even hit 4. That level of elite production is very, very, hard to sustain.

Also if there was anything at all "easy" about adding a "young cost-controlled starter" from a rebuilding team the Cubs would have done that already because that has been Theo's number one target for several offseasons and trade deadlines. Why would rebuilding teams trade young, cheap assets with multiple years of control? They don't.

The Cubs are great. There is a vast talent gap between them and the rest of MLB. Some of that is likely to erode next year. In their case that "erosion" will probably and hopefully mean going from a 110 win true talent team to a 95 win true talent team at worst, but they will not be this good again. This is the best opportunity. Not taking advantage of it would suck major ass and you're all lying to yourselves if you act like it won't.

[Quality Start Machine]

Simply "maintaining" a historically great run prevention pace, especially with at least three starting pitchers well into their 30s and with another year of heavy innings loads on their arms, is not a simple task in the slightest. "just need to maintain arguably one of the best rotations in MLB history" is unbelievably difficult. The Cardinals had a historically good rotation last year and it fell to pieces this year. These Cubs are better and more talented than those Cardinals pitchers were, but there's still matters of luck, health, etc that will not be repeated next year.

They are adding Schwarber's offense, yes, but that also means they are adding his defense, not to mention they are likely to lose Dexter Fowler. Kris Bryant will probably not put up almost 9 wins a year every year, Bryce Harper managed over 9 WAR last year and this year he wont' even hit 4. That level of elite production is very, very, hard to sustain.

Also if there was anything at all "easy" about adding a "young cost-controlled starter" from a rebuilding team the Cubs would have done that already because that has been Theo's number one target for several offseasons and trade deadlines. Why would rebuilding teams trade young, cheap assets with multiple years of control? They don't.

The Cubs are great. There is a vast talent gap between them and the rest of MLB. Some of that is likely to erode next year. In their case that "erosion" will probably and hopefully mean going from a 110 win true talent team to a 95 win true talent team at worst, but they will not be this good again. This is the best opportunity. Not taking advantage of it would suck major ass and you're all lying to yourselves if you act like it won't.

Harper also had a manager who steadfastly refused to put Murphy behind him in the batting order the first half of the season. Bryant won't have to face any similar issues. But as for adding Schwarber, yeah, his bat will be a huge add. But also, you have to think that Contreras and Russell will continue improving - Catcher was the only position the Cubs had this year that was not among the top half in position WAR in the NL. So there's vast room for improvement there.

As for a "young cost-controlled starter", Maddon's already alluded to Montgomery being that guy next year in a couple postgame pressers.

But if there's a Sonny Gray or someone like that out there, Jepstink certainly have the pieces available to get him to Clark & Addison if they so choose.

[Grandmaster Wang]

This is the best opportunity. Not taking advantage of it would suck major ass and you're all lying to yourselves if you act like it won't.

I think we're missing each other in the nuance here. OF COURSE it will be heartbreaking if they don't take this all the way. (Spoiler alert: They will.) But I believe the original question underpinning this here thought exercise was "At what point does THE SEASON go from success to failure?" and all I'm saying is that the first 100+ win season in 80 years is already historically successful and can't possibly become a failure on the whole at this point. Can it end in heartbreak? Of course. It always does. (Except that it won't, not this year, because they absolutely are doing this thing. It is known.) Your mileage may vary. All I'm saying is that in my estimation, the success that has been the 2016 season cannot be erased by whatever nine separate misfortunes which could potentially (in some kind of alternate reality) come next. Sure, it would suck. It won't erase the last 6 months.

[SKO]

This is the best opportunity. Not taking advantage of it would suck major ass and you're all lying to yourselves if you act like it won't.

I think we're missing each other in the nuance here. OF COURSE it will be heartbreaking if they don't take this all the way. (Spoiler alert: They will.) But I believe the original question underpinning this here thought exercise was "At what point does THE SEASON go from success to failure?" and all I'm saying is that the first 100+ win season in 80 years is already historically successful and can't possibly become a failure on the whole at this point. Can it end in heartbreak? Of course. It always does. (Except that it won't, not this year, because they absolutely are doing this thing. It is known.) Your mileage may vary. All I'm saying is that in my estimation, the success that has been the 2016 season cannot be erased by whatever nine separate misfortunes which could potentially (in some kind of alternate reality) come next. Sure, it would suck. It won't erase the last 6 months.

If they fail to win the world series this year I will be heartbroken and disgusted and so bitter and angry I will probably avoid this place and all discussion of baseball until next year starts. If they win the world series next year then I will retroactively deem this year a success once again. I'll also fondly remember 2008, and talk openly about how cool Mark Prior was in 2003. Until said World Series redeems a lifetime of Cubs fandom, however, I'd be unable to look back at this season with anything other than pain.

If you can take a more positive spin on it, by all means, do you. I'm not a healthy individual, though.

[Quality Start Machine]

This is the best opportunity. Not taking advantage of it would suck major ass and you're all lying to yourselves if you act like it won't.

I think we're missing each other in the nuance here. OF COURSE it will be heartbreaking if they don't take this all the way. (Spoiler alert: They will.) But I believe the original question underpinning this here thought exercise was "At what point does THE SEASON go from success to failure?" and all I'm saying is that the first 100+ win season in 80 years is already historically successful and can't possibly become a failure on the whole at this point. Can it end in heartbreak? Of course. It always does. (Except that it won't, not this year, because they absolutely are doing this thing. It is known.) Your mileage may vary. All I'm saying is that in my estimation, the success that has been the 2016 season cannot be erased by whatever nine separate misfortunes which could potentially (in some kind of alternate reality) come next. Sure, it would suck. It won't erase the last 6 months.

If they fail to win the world series this year I will be heartbroken and disgusted and so bitter and angry I will probably avoid this place and all discussion of baseball until next year starts. If they win the world series next year then I will retroactively deem this year a success once again. I'll also fondly remember 2008, and talk openly about how cool Mark Prior was in 2003. Until said World Series redeems a lifetime of Cubs fandom, however, I'd be unable to look back at this season with anything other than pain.

If you can take a more positive spin on it, by all means, do you. I'm not a healthy individual, though.

I think a season of this magnitude ending with another tale added to the lore of billy goats, black cats and Bartmans would be one I'd want to forget, but wouldn't be able to.

[R-V]

Harper also had a manager who steadfastly refused to put Murphy behind him in the batting order the first half of the season.

Harper's 1st half OPS:  .891
Harper's 2nd half OPS: .716

[R-V]

I wouldn't go so far. Without making a single move, the Cubs will be adding an offensive force to their outfield next year through Schwarber. Nobody expects the pitching to improve, it only has to maintain. The offense has not peaked.  

That said, I fully expect the Cubs to try to upgrade on Hammel. The "easy" solution is grabbing a younger starter from a rebuilding team, whose contract they would control for a few years.

I think I've figured it out:

Kurt likes baseball but doesn't actually watch the games or closely follow what's going on with the Cubs.

Chuck watches the games and follows the Cubs but doesn't actually like the sport.

[Bort]

I guess I'm a freak, because I will definitely be very upset if they don't go all the way, but I'll probably get over it and have largely fond memories of this year even in the worst case scenario.