2016 Postseason Sploogapalooza

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Since the division title is a fait accompli, I figured we could pop the top off this thread.  Though the Cubs won't be playing their first postseason game for 4 weeks, there's already begun plenty of talk about who makes the playoff 25-man roster and who gets left holding their dicks in their hands, so I figured that's as good of a place to start as any.

Sure things:

C Contreras
C Ross

IF Rizzo
IF Zobrist
IF Baez
IF Russell
IF Bryant

OF Heyward
OF Fowler
OF Soler

SP Lester
SP Hendricks
SP Arrieta
SP Lackey

RP Chapman
RP Rondon
RP Strop
RP Edwards
RP Grimm
RP Montgomery
RP Wood

That's 21 sure bets (some may quibble with Wood considering how he's pitched the last month but if Maddon's going to (rightfully) use him as a LOOGY then I figure he's a sure thing).

Of those 21 spots that's 10 position players and 11 pitchers, leaving 4 roster spots.  These spots will be dictated by whether they go with 12 pitchers (likely) or 13 (hard to figure the need) or stay with 11 (unlikely).

If they're going with 12 pitchers, that means there's room for 3 position players.

First the extra pitcher spot.  Here are the candidates:

Hammel
Cahill
Joe Smith
Rob Zastrihoweverthefuckyouspellit

If they are going with 12 pitchers, then that leaves 3 spots for the following position players:

Szczur
Almora
LaStella
Coghlan
Montero

Personally, I think Szczur and LaStella make the cut, which brings the last spot down to Almora, Coghlan, and Montero.  If they feel they need another lefty bat then the decision comes down to Coghlan and Montero and I would prefer Montero--Miggy looks like he may yet prove to be useful with the bat and Coghlan does nothing for me. OTOH if Joe would prefer to punt on the 2nd lefty bat and go with defense, then it'd be Almora.

As of today, if they do go with 12 pitchers, I think I'd take Joe Smith, who's been much better since coming back.

This formula could change if they elect to just go with 11 pitchers, in which I imagine Almora and a second lefty bat make the cut.

Roster configuration can very well change from the LDS to LCS.  It's possible that they go with 11 pitchers for the LDS and 12 for the LCS, which would have a ripple effect on the position players.

Discuss!

[Quality Start Machine]

Your lack of faith in Kawasaki is disturbing.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Your lack of faith in Kawasaki is disturbing.

Ha...I like looking at Muni because he's so damn hilariously cartoon-like in appearance.

But seriously, that guy's got as much of a chance to make the postseason roster as Oscar Tavares does of making the Cardinals' postseason roster.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Scott Lindholm on Twitter pointed out, in passing, that the Cubs went with 11 pitchers last postseason, and I heard the same thing on the radio this morning.  This news is perfect timing for me as Joe Smith went back to instilling doubt into his effectiveness when he served up an utter bomb to a middle infielder who will struggle to finish with 15 HR's on the season.

So if the Cubs do go with 14 position players, then I think Albert Almora and his precious glove may well in fact make the cut.

Also, in addition to seeing Smith shit the tub again, I was actually glad to see Coghlan repeatedly hit the ball like an enfeebled terminal cancer patient.  I'm hardly in love with Montero but if there's room for 1 last lefty bat I would much prefer it be Miggy Monty than Coghlan--particularly since Montero himself may recently have shown signs of life with the bat.

[R-V]

Scott Lindholm on Twitter pointed out, in passing, that the Cubs went with 11 pitchers last postseason, and I heard the same thing on the radio this morning.  This news is perfect timing for me as Joe Smith went back to instilling doubt into his effectiveness when he served up an utter bomb to a middle infielder who will struggle to finish with 15 HR's on the season.

So if the Cubs do go with 14 position players, then I think Albert Almora and his precious glove may well in fact make the cut.

Also, in addition to seeing Smith shit the tub again, I was actually glad to see Coghlan repeatedly hit the ball like an enfeebled terminal cancer patient.  I'm hardly in love with Montero but if there's room for 1 last lefty bat I would much prefer it be Miggy Monty than Coghlan--particularly since Montero himself may recently have shown signs of life with the bat.

Going to go ahead and take you up on your Twitter invite to die on this Joe Smith/Jonathan Villar hill.

Villar is actually a good hitter. He's got significantly better offensive numbers than Addison Russell (10 more XBHs, higher OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+) who I think we would all agree has a good amount of pop in his bat and who we wouldn't be in utter shock to see hit a late inning bomb off a setup man. And Villar's been hot over the last two weeks in particular - slugging over .700 with 5 HRs.

Joe Smith may very well suck, but other than throwing one shitty pitch to a white-hot, above average offensive player, he's looked pretty damn good since coming off the DL. I'm going to see how things play out a bit before I declare him off-limits from the postseason roster.

For meme purposes, please add Joe Smith and Jonathan Villar to the list of my very favorite players, along with the Jasons Hammel & Heyward.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Scott Lindholm on Twitter pointed out, in passing, that the Cubs went with 11 pitchers last postseason, and I heard the same thing on the radio this morning.  This news is perfect timing for me as Joe Smith went back to instilling doubt into his effectiveness when he served up an utter bomb to a middle infielder who will struggle to finish with 15 HR's on the season.

So if the Cubs do go with 14 position players, then I think Albert Almora and his precious glove may well in fact make the cut.

Also, in addition to seeing Smith shit the tub again, I was actually glad to see Coghlan repeatedly hit the ball like an enfeebled terminal cancer patient.  I'm hardly in love with Montero but if there's room for 1 last lefty bat I would much prefer it be Miggy Monty than Coghlan--particularly since Montero himself may recently have shown signs of life with the bat.

Going to go ahead and take you up on your Twitter invite to die on this Joe Smith/Jonathan Villar hill.

Villar is actually a good hitter. He's got significantly better offensive numbers than Addison Russell (10 more XBHs, higher OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+) who I think we would all agree has a good amount of pop in his bat and who we wouldn't be in utter shock to see hit a late inning bomb off a setup man. And Villar's been hot over the last two weeks in particular - slugging over .700 with 5 HRs.

Joe Smith may very well suck, but other than throwing one shitty pitch to a white-hot, above average offensive player, he's looked pretty damn good since coming off the DL. I'm going to see how things play out a bit before I declare him off-limits from the postseason roster.

For meme purposes, please add Joe Smith and Jonathan Villar to the list of my very favorite players, along with the Jasons Hammel & Heyward.

Honest question-- if they go with 11 pitchers, who do you cut to make room for your beloved Joe Smith?  Grimm?  Edwards?  Chapman?

Even for you, this is a pretty insipid hill to die on.

[Quality Start Machine]

Scott Lindholm on Twitter pointed out, in passing, that the Cubs went with 11 pitchers last postseason, and I heard the same thing on the radio this morning.  This news is perfect timing for me as Joe Smith went back to instilling doubt into his effectiveness when he served up an utter bomb to a middle infielder who will struggle to finish with 15 HR's on the season.

So if the Cubs do go with 14 position players, then I think Albert Almora and his precious glove may well in fact make the cut.

Also, in addition to seeing Smith shit the tub again, I was actually glad to see Coghlan repeatedly hit the ball like an enfeebled terminal cancer patient.  I'm hardly in love with Montero but if there's room for 1 last lefty bat I would much prefer it be Miggy Monty than Coghlan--particularly since Montero himself may recently have shown signs of life with the bat.

Going to go ahead and take you up on your Twitter invite to die on this Joe Smith/Jonathan Villar hill.

Villar is actually a good hitter. He's got significantly better offensive numbers than Addison Russell (10 more XBHs, higher OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+) who I think we would all agree has a good amount of pop in his bat and who we wouldn't be in utter shock to see hit a late inning bomb off a setup man. And Villar's been hot over the last two weeks in particular - slugging over .700 with 5 HRs.

Joe Smith may very well suck, but other than throwing one shitty pitch to a white-hot, above average offensive player, he's looked pretty damn good since coming off the DL. I'm going to see how things play out a bit before I declare him off-limits from the postseason roster.

For meme purposes, please add Joe Smith and Jonathan Villar to the list of my very favorite players, along with the Jasons Hammel & Heyward.

Honest question-- if they go with 11 pitchers, who do you cut to make room for your beloved Joe Smith?  Grimm?  Edwards?  Chapman?

Even for you, this is a pretty insipid hill to die on.

If they go with 11...

Jake
Lester
QSM
Mouthbreather

Wood (LOOGY)
Montgomery
Cahill
Grimm
Edwards
Rondon
Chapman

It also means that Strop isn't ready.

[R-V]

Scott Lindholm on Twitter pointed out, in passing, that the Cubs went with 11 pitchers last postseason, and I heard the same thing on the radio this morning.  This news is perfect timing for me as Joe Smith went back to instilling doubt into his effectiveness when he served up an utter bomb to a middle infielder who will struggle to finish with 15 HR's on the season.

So if the Cubs do go with 14 position players, then I think Albert Almora and his precious glove may well in fact make the cut.

Also, in addition to seeing Smith shit the tub again, I was actually glad to see Coghlan repeatedly hit the ball like an enfeebled terminal cancer patient.  I'm hardly in love with Montero but if there's room for 1 last lefty bat I would much prefer it be Miggy Monty than Coghlan--particularly since Montero himself may recently have shown signs of life with the bat.

Going to go ahead and take you up on your Twitter invite to die on this Joe Smith/Jonathan Villar hill.

Villar is actually a good hitter. He's got significantly better offensive numbers than Addison Russell (10 more XBHs, higher OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+) who I think we would all agree has a good amount of pop in his bat and who we wouldn't be in utter shock to see hit a late inning bomb off a setup man. And Villar's been hot over the last two weeks in particular - slugging over .700 with 5 HRs.

Joe Smith may very well suck, but other than throwing one shitty pitch to a white-hot, above average offensive player, he's looked pretty damn good since coming off the DL. I'm going to see how things play out a bit before I declare him off-limits from the postseason roster.

For meme purposes, please add Joe Smith and Jonathan Villar to the list of my very favorite players, along with the Jasons Hammel & Heyward.

Honest question-- if they go with 11 pitchers, who do you cut to make room for your beloved Joe Smith?  Grimm?  Edwards?  Chapman?

Even for you, this is a pretty insipid hill to die on.

I agree with your list of 11 for the NLDS. But I would consider Smith (along with Cahill or Zastrynszy) as a replacement for Grimm or Strop if they're not ready for the NLDS health-wise, or if they add a 12th pitcher for the NLCS.

[R-V]

Scott Lindholm on Twitter pointed out, in passing, that the Cubs went with 11 pitchers last postseason, and I heard the same thing on the radio this morning.  This news is perfect timing for me as Joe Smith went back to instilling doubt into his effectiveness when he served up an utter bomb to a middle infielder who will struggle to finish with 15 HR's on the season.

So if the Cubs do go with 14 position players, then I think Albert Almora and his precious glove may well in fact make the cut.

Also, in addition to seeing Smith shit the tub again, I was actually glad to see Coghlan repeatedly hit the ball like an enfeebled terminal cancer patient.  I'm hardly in love with Montero but if there's room for 1 last lefty bat I would much prefer it be Miggy Monty than Coghlan--particularly since Montero himself may recently have shown signs of life with the bat.

Going to go ahead and take you up on your Twitter invite to die on this Joe Smith/Jonathan Villar hill.

Villar is actually a good hitter. He's got significantly better offensive numbers than Addison Russell (10 more XBHs, higher OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+) who I think we would all agree has a good amount of pop in his bat and who we wouldn't be in utter shock to see hit a late inning bomb off a setup man. And Villar's been hot over the last two weeks in particular - slugging over .700 with 5 HRs.

Joe Smith may very well suck, but other than throwing one shitty pitch to a white-hot, above average offensive player, he's looked pretty damn good since coming off the DL. I'm going to see how things play out a bit before I declare him off-limits from the postseason roster.

For meme purposes, please add Joe Smith and Jonathan Villar to the list of my very favorite players, along with the Jasons Hammel & Heyward.

Honest question-- if they go with 11 pitchers, who do you cut to make room for your beloved Joe Smith?  Grimm?  Edwards?  Chapman?

Even for you, this is a pretty insipid hill to die on.

I agree with your list of 11 for the NLDS. But I would consider Smith (along with Cahill or Zastrynszy) as a replacement for Grimm or Strop if they're not ready for the NLDS health-wise, or if they add a 12th pitcher for the NLCS.

DPD. And now I see that Grimm left the game last night because he shit his pants, not because of injury. So that increases the chances of a Smith-less roster.

[R-V]

From Jon Greenberg's Athletic recap of last night's game:

For everyone banging the drum on moving Arrieta to the third spot in the playoff rotation, this start didn't disprove that mainstream idea. In fact, the Cubs rejiggered their rotation again to keep Jon Lester on pace to start Game 1 of the division series on Oct. 7. It's going to go Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Arrieta and John Lackey. We all know that.

Do we? I didn't. Did I miss this becoming Said in Stone?

[SKO]

From Jon Greenberg's Athletic recap of last night's game:

For everyone banging the drum on moving Arrieta to the third spot in the playoff rotation, this start didn't disprove that mainstream idea. In fact, the Cubs rejiggered their rotation again to keep Jon Lester on pace to start Game 1 of the division series on Oct. 7. It's going to go Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Arrieta and John Lackey. We all know that.

Do we? I didn't. Did I miss this becoming Said in Stone?

I was not aware of it but it makes sense. Arrieta doesn't have much of a home/road split, Lester and Hendricks have been basically unbeatable at home.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

From Jon Greenberg's Athletic recap of last night's game:

For everyone banging the drum on moving Arrieta to the third spot in the playoff rotation, this start didn't disprove that mainstream idea. In fact, the Cubs rejiggered their rotation again to keep Jon Lester on pace to start Game 1 of the division series on Oct. 7. It's going to go Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Arrieta and John Lackey. We all know that.

Do we? I didn't. Did I miss this becoming Said in Stone?

I was not aware of it but it makes sense. Arrieta doesn't have much of a home/road split, Lester and Hendricks have been basically unbeatable at home.

I like Arrieta on the road, if for no other irrational reason than I have fond memories if the coin-flip game wherein the Cubs jumped out to a lead in the top of the 1st and then cruised.  I know it didn't work out so well against the Mets but Arrieta had run out of gas by then anyway, and I don't suspect that'll be a problem this year.  In any event, my own belief is that Lester-Hendricks-Arrieta is the optimal arrangement.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

DPD.

Pretty sure Almora's going to make the postseason roster which, assuming they go with 11 pitchers in the first round, would mean the last spot would definitely be Montero v. Coghlan.

[Saul Goodman]

From Jon Greenberg's Athletic recap of last night's game:

For everyone banging the drum on moving Arrieta to the third spot in the playoff rotation, this start didn't disprove that mainstream idea. In fact, the Cubs rejiggered their rotation again to keep Jon Lester on pace to start Game 1 of the division series on Oct. 7. It's going to go Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Arrieta and John Lackey. We all know that.

Do we? I didn't. Did I miss this becoming Said in Stone?

Sahadev should write all the Cubs stuff.

[Yeti]

It's my drum to beat, but the Cubs are mathematically in the playoffs.
Cubs lose out, Cards win out: No Division
But, that also means SF has 72 losses since they play the Cardinals, and the Cubs can only get down to 69 losses.