2016 Postseason Sploogapalooza

[Chuck to Chuck]

It's my drum to beat, but the Cubs are mathematically in the playoffs.
Cubs lose out, Cards win out: No Division
But, that also means SF has 72 losses since they play the Cardinals, and the Cubs can only get down to 69 losses.

Nice.

[Quality Start Machine]

It's my drum to beat, but the Cubs are mathematically in the playoffs.
Cubs lose out, Cards win out: No Division
But, that also means SF has 72 losses since they play the Cardinals, and the Cubs can only get down to 69 losses.

What if the Giants and Mets win out while the Cubs lose out?

[SKO]

It's my drum to beat, but the Cubs are mathematically in the playoffs.
Cubs lose out, Cards win out: No Division
But, that also means SF has 72 losses since they play the Cardinals, and the Cubs can only get down to 69 losses.

What if the Giants and Mets win out while the Cubs lose out?

MLB.com has the little x by the Cubs so they're in no matter what http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

[Quality Start Machine]

It's my drum to beat, but the Cubs are mathematically in the playoffs.
Cubs lose out, Cards win out: No Division
But, that also means SF has 72 losses since they play the Cardinals, and the Cubs can only get down to 69 losses.

What if the Giants and Mets win out while the Cubs lose out?

MLB.com has the little x by the Cubs so they're in no matter what http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

Me, this morning...

[Brownie]

It's my drum to beat, but the Cubs are mathematically in the playoffs.
Cubs lose out, Cards win out: No Division
But, that also means SF has 72 losses since they play the Cardinals, and the Cubs can only get down to 69 losses.

What if the Giants and Mets win out while the Cubs lose out?

I like that scenario, because that means the Cubs probably play the Dodgers (or Giants, I guess) while the Nats get the Wild Card team.

[Saul Goodman]

And they're officially division champs. The fact that they clinched with a Cardinals loss is almost better than clinching with a win.

[Quality Start Machine]

And they're officially division champs. The fact that they clinched with a Cardinals loss is almost better than clinching with a win.

Especially since said Cardinals loss put them behind the Mets in the loss column.

[R-V]

For what it's worth (and the playing time numbers are probably worth more than the production), playoff roster candidates over the last 30 days:

Hammel - 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 5.16 FIP
Cahill - 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 5.53 FIP
Smith - 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Zastryzny - 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Montero - 44 PAs .973 OPS
Coghlan - 34 PAs .805 OPS
LaStella - 29 PAs .618 OPS
Szczur - 25 PAs .091 OPS
Almora - 15 PAs .734 OPS

Updated NLDS prediction assuming a healthy George & Pedro:

Contreras, Ross, Montero
Rizzo
Zobrist, Baez
Russell
Bryant
Fowler, Heyward, Soler, Coghlan, Almora, Szczur

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

Chapman
Rondon
Strop
Edwards
Montgomery
Grimm
Wood

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

For what it's worth (and the playing time numbers are probably worth more than the production), playoff roster candidates over the last 30 days:

Hammel - 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 5.16 FIP
Cahill - 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 5.53 FIP
Smith - 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Zastryzny - 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Montero - 44 PAs .973 OPS
Coghlan - 34 PAs .805 OPS
LaStella - 29 PAs .618 OPS
Szczur - 25 PAs .091 OPS
Almora - 15 PAs .734 OPS

Updated NLDS prediction assuming a healthy George & Pedro:

Contreras, Ross, Montero
Rizzo
Zobrist, Baez
Russell
Bryant
Fowler, Heyward, Soler, Coghlan, Almora, Szczur

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

Chapman
Rondon
Strop
Edwards
Montgomery
Grimm
Wood

Replace Coghlan with La Stella and I think you've got it.

[SKO]

For what it's worth (and the playing time numbers are probably worth more than the production), playoff roster candidates over the last 30 days:

Hammel - 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 5.16 FIP
Cahill - 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 5.53 FIP
Smith - 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Zastryzny - 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Montero - 44 PAs .973 OPS
Coghlan - 34 PAs .805 OPS
LaStella - 29 PAs .618 OPS
Szczur - 25 PAs .091 OPS
Almora - 15 PAs .734 OPS

Updated NLDS prediction assuming a healthy George & Pedro:

Contreras, Ross, Montero
Rizzo
Zobrist, Baez
Russell
Bryant
Fowler, Heyward, Soler, Coghlan, Almora, Szczur

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

Chapman
Rondon
Strop
Edwards
Montgomery
Grimm
Wood

Replace Coghlan with La Stella and I think you've got it.

God help me, if Coghlan keeps hitting I actually think Joe would keep Coghlan AND La Stella over Almora, or only keep one of Almora and Szczur. They just need one defensive sub for George, Szczur's role as a lefty mashing OF is redundant if they have Soler and Baez, and you can probably never have enough left handed pinch hitters with decent on base skills.

[R-V]

For what it's worth (and the playing time numbers are probably worth more than the production), playoff roster candidates over the last 30 days:

Hammel - 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 5.16 FIP
Cahill - 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 5.53 FIP
Smith - 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Zastryzny - 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Montero - 44 PAs .973 OPS
Coghlan - 34 PAs .805 OPS
LaStella - 29 PAs .618 OPS
Szczur - 25 PAs .091 OPS
Almora - 15 PAs .734 OPS

Updated NLDS prediction assuming a healthy George & Pedro:

Contreras, Ross, Montero
Rizzo
Zobrist, Baez
Russell
Bryant
Fowler, Heyward, Soler, Coghlan, Almora, Szczur

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

Chapman
Rondon
Strop
Edwards
Montgomery
Grimm
Wood

Replace Coghlan with La Stella and I think you've got it.

God help me, if Coghlan keeps hitting I actually think Joe would keep Coghlan AND La Stella over Almora, or only keep one of Almora and Szczur. They just need one defensive sub for George, Szczur's role as a lefty mashing OF is redundant if they have Soler and Baez, and you can probably never have enough left handed pinch hitters with decent on base skills.

I'm viewing Szcur and Coghlan as PH specialists only - I wouldn't expect them to get a start. And yeah while I think many of us would prefer La Stella over Coghlan for a variety of reasons, my Hendry-esque gut tells me Maddon trusts Coghlan more than La Stella.

At catcher, I think you'd see Ross paired up with Lester, Montero paired up with Jake (since anecdotally he seems to be the guy that can help Jake work through his inevitable one inning where he loses his shit), and then matchups for Hendricks & Lackey starts - maybe Contreras, maybe not.

For the rest of the position players, you've got Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Bryant, Fowler and Heyward in there every game. Soler and Baez would fill the last positional spot depending on matchups.

Then you've got Almora as exclusively an 8th/9th inning lead defensive option, or possibly a pinch runner for Montero or Ross.

[Oleg]

For what it's worth (and the playing time numbers are probably worth more than the production), playoff roster candidates over the last 30 days:

Hammel - 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 5.16 FIP
Cahill - 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 5.53 FIP
Smith - 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Zastryzny - 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Montero - 44 PAs .973 OPS
Coghlan - 34 PAs .805 OPS
LaStella - 29 PAs .618 OPS
Szczur - 25 PAs .091 OPS
Almora - 15 PAs .734 OPS

Updated NLDS prediction assuming a healthy George & Pedro:

Contreras, Ross, Montero
Rizzo
Zobrist, Baez
Russell
Bryant
Fowler, Heyward, Soler, Coghlan, Almora, Szczur

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

Chapman
Rondon
Strop
Edwards
Montgomery
Grimm
Wood

Replace Coghlan with La Stella and I think you've got it.

God help me, if Coghlan keeps hitting I actually think Joe would keep Coghlan AND La Stella over Almora, or only keep one of Almora and Szczur. They just need one defensive sub for George, Szczur's role as a lefty mashing OF is redundant if they have Soler and Baez, and you can probably never have enough left handed pinch hitters with decent on base skills.

I'm viewing Szcur and Coghlan as PH specialists only - I wouldn't expect them to get a start. And yeah while I think many of us would prefer La Stella over Coghlan for a variety of reasons, my Hendry-esque gut tells me Maddon trusts Coghlan more than La Stella.

At catcher, I think you'd see Ross paired up with Lester, Montero paired up with Jake (since anecdotally he seems to be the guy that can help Jake work through his inevitable one inning where he loses his shit), and then matchups for Hendricks & Lackey starts - maybe Contreras, maybe not.

For the rest of the position players, you've got Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Bryant, Fowler and Heyward in there every game. Soler and Baez would fill the last positional spot depending on matchups.

Then you've got Almora as exclusively an 8th/9th inning lead defensive option, or possibly a pinch runner for Montero or Ross.

Sczcur's expired (not necessarily dead but he all of a sudden sucks).  I'd rather see Almora, Cogs, and LaStella over him only because that gives you an extra IF option.

[SKO]

For what it's worth (and the playing time numbers are probably worth more than the production), playoff roster candidates over the last 30 days:

Hammel - 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 5.16 FIP
Cahill - 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 5.53 FIP
Smith - 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Zastryzny - 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Montero - 44 PAs .973 OPS
Coghlan - 34 PAs .805 OPS
LaStella - 29 PAs .618 OPS
Szczur - 25 PAs .091 OPS
Almora - 15 PAs .734 OPS

Updated NLDS prediction assuming a healthy George & Pedro:

Contreras, Ross, Montero
Rizzo
Zobrist, Baez
Russell
Bryant
Fowler, Heyward, Soler, Coghlan, Almora, Szczur

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

Chapman
Rondon
Strop
Edwards
Montgomery
Grimm
Wood

Replace Coghlan with La Stella and I think you've got it.

God help me, if Coghlan keeps hitting I actually think Joe would keep Coghlan AND La Stella over Almora, or only keep one of Almora and Szczur. They just need one defensive sub for George, Szczur's role as a lefty mashing OF is redundant if they have Soler and Baez, and you can probably never have enough left handed pinch hitters with decent on base skills.

I'm viewing Szcur and Coghlan as PH specialists only - I wouldn't expect them to get a start. And yeah while I think many of us would prefer La Stella over Coghlan for a variety of reasons, my Hendry-esque gut tells me Maddon trusts Coghlan more than La Stella.

At catcher, I think you'd see Ross paired up with Lester, Montero paired up with Jake (since anecdotally he seems to be the guy that can help Jake work through his inevitable one inning where he loses his shit), and then matchups for Hendricks & Lackey starts - maybe Contreras, maybe not.

For the rest of the position players, you've got Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Bryant, Fowler and Heyward in there every game. Soler and Baez would fill the last positional spot depending on matchups.

Then you've got Almora as exclusively an 8th/9th inning lead defensive option, or possibly a pinch runner for Montero or Ross.

Sczcur's expired (not necessarily dead but he all of a sudden sucks).  I'd rather see Almora, Cogs, and LaStella over him only because that gives you an extra IF option.

I don't know that he's expired so much as he has one very limited skill and that it is one they don't really need when Jorge is healthy. 

Game One of the NLDS if Lester starts will probably have Javy at third so:

Fowler CF
Bryant LF
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist 2B
Russell SS
Heyward RF
Baez 3B
Ross C
Lester P

That leaves you with Soler, Contreras, Almora as your right handed pinch hitters, Coghlan, La Stella, Montero as left handed options.

Otherwise the lineup would probably Fowler CF/Bryant 3B/Rizzo 1B/Zobrist 2B/Heyward RF/Soler LF/Russell SS and either Montero or Willson at catcher. For what is worth it's a small sample size but in 90 career PAs against LHP La Stella has a .291/.378/.392/.770 line, whereas Coghlan and Szczur are both straight platoon players. If you wanted versatility you'd pick La Stella over either, and Coghlan as the left handed option who is now hitting and also walks a fair amount probably offers you more than Szczur, when you already have Soler/Contreras/Baez as lefty mashing options.

If you're keeping one guy solely for defense and to also maybe be your 3rd or 4th best pinch hitter against LHP then Almora probably makes more sense as a Fowler/Almora/Heyward OF defense with a 1 run lead and a bullpen of Edwards/Strop/Rondon/Chapman is just highly erotic.

[R-V]

For what it's worth (and the playing time numbers are probably worth more than the production), playoff roster candidates over the last 30 days:

Hammel - 26.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 5.16 FIP
Cahill - 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 5.53 FIP
Smith - 8.2 IP, 1.04 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Zastryzny - 7.2 IP, 1.17 ERA, 2.09 FIP

Montero - 44 PAs .973 OPS
Coghlan - 34 PAs .805 OPS
LaStella - 29 PAs .618 OPS
Szczur - 25 PAs .091 OPS
Almora - 15 PAs .734 OPS

Updated NLDS prediction assuming a healthy George & Pedro:

Contreras, Ross, Montero
Rizzo
Zobrist, Baez
Russell
Bryant
Fowler, Heyward, Soler, Coghlan, Almora, Szczur

Lester
Hendricks
Arrieta
Lackey

Chapman
Rondon
Strop
Edwards
Montgomery
Grimm
Wood

Replace Coghlan with La Stella and I think you've got it.

God help me, if Coghlan keeps hitting I actually think Joe would keep Coghlan AND La Stella over Almora, or only keep one of Almora and Szczur. They just need one defensive sub for George, Szczur's role as a lefty mashing OF is redundant if they have Soler and Baez, and you can probably never have enough left handed pinch hitters with decent on base skills.

I'm viewing Szcur and Coghlan as PH specialists only - I wouldn't expect them to get a start. And yeah while I think many of us would prefer La Stella over Coghlan for a variety of reasons, my Hendry-esque gut tells me Maddon trusts Coghlan more than La Stella.

At catcher, I think you'd see Ross paired up with Lester, Montero paired up with Jake (since anecdotally he seems to be the guy that can help Jake work through his inevitable one inning where he loses his shit), and then matchups for Hendricks & Lackey starts - maybe Contreras, maybe not.

For the rest of the position players, you've got Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell, Bryant, Fowler and Heyward in there every game. Soler and Baez would fill the last positional spot depending on matchups.

Then you've got Almora as exclusively an 8th/9th inning lead defensive option, or possibly a pinch runner for Montero or Ross.

Sczcur's expired (not necessarily dead but he all of a sudden sucks).  I'd rather see Almora, Cogs, and LaStella over him only because that gives you an extra IF option.

I don't know that he's expired so much as he has one very limited skill and that it is one they don't really need when Jorge is healthy.

Game One of the NLDS if Lester starts will probably have Javy at third so:

Fowler CF
Bryant LF
Rizzo 1B
Zobrist 2B
Russell SS
Heyward RF
Baez 3B
Ross C
Lester P

That leaves you with Soler, Contreras, Almora as your right handed pinch hitters, Coghlan, La Stella, Montero as left handed options.

Otherwise the lineup would probably Fowler CF/Bryant 3B/Rizzo 1B/Zobrist 2B/Heyward RF/Soler LF/Russell SS and either Montero or Willson at catcher. For what is worth it's a small sample size but in 90 career PAs against LHP La Stella has a .291/.378/.392/.770 line, whereas Coghlan and Szczur are both straight platoon players. If you wanted versatility you'd pick La Stella over either, and Coghlan as the left handed option who is now hitting and also walks a fair amount probably offers you more than Szczur, when you already have Soler/Contreras/Baez as lefty mashing options.

These are all good points. It is probably true that at least one of Baez, Soler or Contreras would be available as a RH PH option, and they're all better options than Szczur. I really have no attachment to Szczur - it's interesting/maddening that a guy who was supposedly a two-sport athlete is at best an average defender & baserunner.

[Saul Goodman]

Greetings from Petco Park, where the Padres continue to suck.

In light of the Giants (and possibly Red Sox?) fans behind me who are trying to troll by talking about how the Cubs won't win the World Series because of goats and Bartman or something, I propose the following 2016 postseason hashtag:

#FuckYourCurse