Cubs 2017 Let's Win Two!

[Eli]

Cobbling together from a few different sources, if the Cubs stand pat and fill out the 25-man with guys already on the roster, I'm seeing an Opening Day payroll of about $148 M. This is almost $25 M less than 2016, so I would assume there's a decent amount of cushion to add a guy or two, unless they are doing the old Tanaka sock-away for Bryant, Russell etc. contracts.

TC = team control, I'm assuming a 525k minimum salary (I'm seeing 507k for 2016)
A = arbitration, I'm going off the estimates Bleacher Nation shared today

I know next to nothing about how team control and arbitration work so it's quite possible most of these numbers are completely wrong.

Zac Rosscup is still on the roster? Lol. I'm sure someone's gonna offer Dexter 4-5 years and he's gone but man, given that they don't have many needs and there's not much worth buying on this market anyway I wonder how he'd feel just getting like 2 years, 50 million. They could afford to do it.

If they paid 25/per for Fowler, what's the starting point for talks with Bryant?

I feel like those kinds of deals are always tough to get a grasp on since there'd be a lot of cheap/arbitration years bought out.

[SKO]

Cobbling together from a few different sources, if the Cubs stand pat and fill out the 25-man with guys already on the roster, I'm seeing an Opening Day payroll of about $148 M. This is almost $25 M less than 2016, so I would assume there's a decent amount of cushion to add a guy or two, unless they are doing the old Tanaka sock-away for Bryant, Russell etc. contracts.

TC = team control, I'm assuming a 525k minimum salary (I'm seeing 507k for 2016)
A = arbitration, I'm going off the estimates Bleacher Nation shared today

I know next to nothing about how team control and arbitration work so it's quite possible most of these numbers are completely wrong.

Zac Rosscup is still on the roster? Lol. I'm sure someone's gonna offer Dexter 4-5 years and he's gone but man, given that they don't have many needs and there's not much worth buying on this market anyway I wonder how he'd feel just getting like 2 years, 50 million. They could afford to do it.

If they paid 25/per for Fowler, what's the starting point for talks with Bryant?

I feel like those kinds of deals are always tough to get a grasp on since there'd be a lot of cheap/arbitration years bought out.

Also he's a Scott Boras client, as is Addy, so I don't spend much time thinking about a team friendly extension that will never happen.

[Quality Start Machine]

Sploosh.

[Oleg]

This is nice.

[SKO]

This is nice.

My only quibble is that Schwarber's offensive projection seems off. The power numbers etc are fine but I really have a hard time believing he'll K 30% of the time. He struck out 28% of the time as a rookie and only 20.7% of the time in the minors. Given how much Bryant/Russell/Soler/Baez have all cut down their Ks going into year two I doubt Schwarber, who has arguably the best eye of any of them but Bryant, will somehow get worse.

Otherwise 2.1 WAR seems a fair projection for him given the understandable concerns about his defense and how he'll hold up coming off of the injury.

I also would take the over on Javy and Russell as they keep improving (but man would I be thrilled if Heyward manages 3 wins this year). Either way this is cause for more boner time, I think as of right now that group actually projects 1 win better than the 2016 Cubs did in last year's version of these.

[Quality Start Machine]

This is nice.

My only quibble is that Schwarber's offensive projection seems off. The power numbers etc are fine but I really have a hard time believing he'll K 30% of the time. He struck out 28% of the time as a rookie and only 20.7% of the time in the minors. Given how much Bryant/Russell/Soler/Baez have all cut down their Ks going into year two I doubt Schwarber, who has arguably the best eye of any of them but Bryant, will somehow get worse.

Otherwise 2.1 WAR seems a fair projection for him given the understandable concerns about his defense and how he'll hold up coming off of the injury.

I also would take the over on Javy and Russell as they keep improving (but man would I be thrilled if Heyward manages 3 wins this year). Either way this is cause for more boner time, I think as of right now that group actually projects 1 win better than the 2016 Cubs did in last year's version of these.

I'd also take the over on Montgomery, both in WAR and innings pitched. A groundball guy in front of that infield should be able to succeed.

[Tonker]

This is nice.

Is anybody else as baffled as I am that Logan Watkins should have Juan Gone as his no.1 comp?

[SKO]

This is nice.

Is anybody else as baffled as I am that Logan Watkins should have Juan Gone as his no.1 comp?

That is truly bizarre, although from clicking on the link it appears there was another Juan Gonzalez that was a AAA middle infielder for the Dodgers a decade ago. I don't know if ZiPS only comps to people who have played in the majors or if it also comps to old minor leaguers, but I'm inclined to believe it's the latter here.

[SKO]

DPD, but the projection for Candelario (.260/.325/.424, 2.4 WAR) is pretty bullish, and they also think Caratini could be an above replacement level catcher as of this year. Would be cool if Candelario is a big piece of a trade and Caratini can step in as Montero's replacement for backup catcher by 2018.

[SKO]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/cubs-to-sign-jon-jay.html

When you win the World Series you get the big stars like Jon Jay.

But really this is a fine signing of a dude who can be a solid fourth outfielder/platoon option with Almora

[Quality Start Machine]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/cubs-to-sign-jon-jay.html

When you win the World Series you get the big stars like Jon Jay.

But really this is a fine signing of a dude who can be a solid fourth outfielder/platoon option with Almora

He was a reverse split guy last year, so hopefully less platoon, more backup.

[Shooter]

Bill James projection for Bryant: .310/.405/.593/.998 with 42 dongs. Holy shit.

ZiPS is .274/.372/.512/.884 and 33 dongs.

[Saul Goodman]

Bill James projection for Bryant: .310/.405/.593/.998 with 42 dongs. Holy shit.

ZiPS is .274/.372/.512/.884 and 33 dongs.

Um, yeah, sign us up for the James line, please.

[Quality Start Machine]

Brian Duensing. A Cub.

[Saul Goodman]

Brian Duensing. A Cub.

(scattered applause, general indifference)