Cubs 2017 Let's Win Two!

[Quality Start Machine]

What % of these reclamation projects turn into gold for the Cubs? Or at least good enough to be traded for big upgrades, Theo/Jed haven't missed on much in this category, and most have somehow turned platinum in some way from either Arrieta beign a stud or these 1st-half wonders turned into major prospects. There's also a reason we call Bosio the Wizard as under his watch we've turned people into studs.

I think that, in a lifetime, turning one turd into Jake Arrieta is about the best anyone team could ever possibly hope for.  I'm not saying they shouldn't try but I'm not exactly counting on anything coming from Eddie Butler.

If he turns into a useful #4, that would be a major win.

Even outside of Jake, they're gotten decent to very good "unexpected" value (in performance and/or return) from:
Hammel
Strop
Feldman
Wood (he's certainly been better than Marshall)
Rondon
Cahill

I'm sure they're are more.

The whole they're are? To be fair to Marshall, it's easy to be better than someone who's been hurt pretty much this whole time.

I'd say Wood-for-Marshall is hardly "certainly" in Wood's favor.  Marshall was an All-Star reliever for a competitive contender.  Wood was an All-Star for a shitty team and a useful, contributing factor to a World Championship.  I'd say that one's a wash, on balance.

Flags fly forever.  Wood is awesome and a much better hitter than Marshall.  Marshall wasn't even that cool.  Forget about Marshall, would ya?  Wood.  Wood for the win.  Geez.

Hey, JD.

Sup, bro.  You hear that Pen is messing with the setting in the fantasy baseball league? 

He's making fantasy baseball great again.

Not my commissioner!

Just wait for CT's next character, a power-hungry fantasy baseball commissioner who goes on 5AM tweet storms. Sad!

[SKO]

Some people are mad PECOTA "only" projects the Cubs for 91 wins, but it's usually pretty conservative (other than the annual tongue bath it gives the Dodgers) and last year projected them for only 92 if I remember correctly. Anyways, the important thing is it projects them well ahead of the Cardinals, who are complete garbage: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

If the Cardinals really finish fourth I will count this season as a massive success even if the Cubs get wiped in the NLDS.

[Saul Goodman]

If the Cardinals really finish fourth I will count this season as a massive success even if the Cubs get wiped in the NLDS.

Same projected record as the White Sox, which should terrify CARDINALS NATION.

[Yeti]

Some people are mad PECOTA "only" projects the Cubs for 91 wins, but it's usually pretty conservative (other than the annual tongue bath it gives the Dodgers) and last year projected them for only 92 if I remember correctly. Anyways, the important thing is it projects them well ahead of the Cardinals, who are complete garbage: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

If the Cardinals really finish fourth I will count this season as a massive success even if the Cubs get wiped in the NLDS.

I was more asshurt about the Dodgers sitting at 98, cause the team I love is the greatest team in the world and I don't need no computer telling me otherwise.

[SKO]

Some people are mad PECOTA "only" projects the Cubs for 91 wins, but it's usually pretty conservative (other than the annual tongue bath it gives the Dodgers) and last year projected them for only 92 if I remember correctly. Anyways, the important thing is it projects them well ahead of the Cardinals, who are complete garbage: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

If the Cardinals really finish fourth I will count this season as a massive success even if the Cubs get wiped in the NLDS.

I was more asshurt about the Dodgers sitting at 98, cause the team I love is the greatest team in the world and I don't need no computer telling me otherwise.

Yeah I am not a BP member so I can't see the Dodgers depth chart page but I really wonder how they decided on that projection for LA. The Cubs have a better position player group for sure, so I'm guessing they just really, really love the Dodgers pitching, but I question how many innings they think Rich Hill will actually manage at last year's pace.

But, again, BP projected the Dodgers as the best team in baseball last year, too. Their metrics just really love that pitching staff.

[Quality Start Machine]

Some people are mad PECOTA "only" projects the Cubs for 91 wins, but it's usually pretty conservative (other than the annual tongue bath it gives the Dodgers) and last year projected them for only 92 if I remember correctly. Anyways, the important thing is it projects them well ahead of the Cardinals, who are complete garbage: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

If the Cardinals really finish fourth I will count this season as a massive success even if the Cubs get wiped in the NLDS.

I was more asshurt about the Dodgers sitting at 98, cause the team I love is the greatest team in the world and I don't need no computer telling me otherwise.

Yeah I am not a BP member so I can't see the Dodgers depth chart page but I really wonder how they decided on that projection for LA. The Cubs have a better position player group for sure, so I'm guessing they just really, really love the Dodgers pitching, but I question how many innings they think Rich Hill will actually manage at last year's pace.

But, again, BP projected the Dodgers as the best team in baseball last year, too. Their metrics just really love that pitching staff.

Let's also swee how healthy Kershaw is. Bad backs on power pitchers tend to not work out well.

[SKO]

Some people are mad PECOTA "only" projects the Cubs for 91 wins, but it's usually pretty conservative (other than the annual tongue bath it gives the Dodgers) and last year projected them for only 92 if I remember correctly. Anyways, the important thing is it projects them well ahead of the Cardinals, who are complete garbage: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

If the Cardinals really finish fourth I will count this season as a massive success even if the Cubs get wiped in the NLDS.

I was more asshurt about the Dodgers sitting at 98, cause the team I love is the greatest team in the world and I don't need no computer telling me otherwise.

Yeah I am not a BP member so I can't see the Dodgers depth chart page but I really wonder how they decided on that projection for LA. The Cubs have a better position player group for sure, so I'm guessing they just really, really love the Dodgers pitching, but I question how many innings they think Rich Hill will actually manage at last year's pace.

But, again, BP projected the Dodgers as the best team in baseball last year, too. Their metrics just really love that pitching staff.

Let's also swee how healthy Kershaw is. Bad backs on power pitchers tend to not work out well.

I have no problem with PECOTA saying "Dodgers are going to be good again." They definitely are, and they have the prospects and cash to throw at any problems that arise just like they have the last few years. If they were to meet the Cubs in the NLCS again and even win this time I am not going to be surprised. I just am more curious as to what the formula sees that makes them 5 games better than every other team.

For instance, fangraphs likes the Dodgers slightly more than the Cubs, too, but it's much closer. They project the Dodgers to win 95 games with a 129 run differential and the Cubs to win 94 with a 120. They like the Cubs offense more, but favor the Dodgers pitching. I can see why pitching projections based largely on FIP and stuff would like the Kershaw/Hill duo more than what the Cubs have, and I share PECOTA's concerns that Lackey is about to fall off a cliff. He was pretty shitty late last year. That I can buy.

What I don't get is how PECOTA somehow thinks the Dodgers will have a better offense and a better defense than the Cubs. I just don't see that happening at all.

[Quality Start Machine]

The Cubs sent Donny Dewees to Kansas City for Alec Mills, who was DFAed to make room for Hammel.

The Cubs are certainly not being timid about loading up on pitching projects.

[Saul Goodman]

The Cubs sent Donny Dewees to Kansas City for Alec Mills, who was DFAed to make room for Hammel.

The Cubs are certainly not being timid about loading up on pitching projects.

And Brian Wilson's trying to come back as a knuckleballer...

On Dewees. The latest prospect prognostications said his absolute best case scenario is to become a younger Ben Revere, so this trade sounds about right.

[PenFoe]

The Cubs sent Donny Dewees to Kansas City for Alec Mills, who was DFAed to make room for Hammel.

The Cubs are certainly not being timid about loading up on pitching projects.

And Brian Wilson's trying to come back as a knuckleballer...

On Dewees. The latest prospect prognostications said his absolute best case scenario is to become a younger Ben Revere, so this trade sounds about right.

To no one's surprise, I'm a little sad about them trading Donnie Dewees. 

He was probably never going to break through as the future leadoff hitter I was hoping, but I enjoyed his season of 90 triples last year.

[PenFoe]

Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo is a brutal top of the order for opposing pitchers.

[Saul Goodman]

Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo is a brutal top of the order for opposing pitchers.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Zobrist come up for his first AB in several games this season with the Cubs already up 3-0 with nobody out.

[SKO]

Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo is a brutal top of the order for opposing pitchers.

He also said he's probably going back to pitcher batting 8th with Almora/Jay batting 9th.  

VS RHP: Schwarber LF/Bryant 3B/Rizzo 1B/Zobrist 2B/Contreras C/Heyward RF/Russell SS/Pitcher/Jay CF
VS LHP: Zobrist LF/Bryant 3B/Rizzo 1B/Baez 2B/Contreras C/Russell SS/Heyward RF/Pitcher/Almora CF

If Heyward hits like his career averages instead of last year that's still one hell of a lineup, and I'd bet there'll be quite a few days where they stick Heyward in CF and either Zobrist or Bryant in a corner so Javy can play.

I'm beginning to think these Cubs might be kinda good this year.

[SKO]

I also think Russell is going to have a huge year. Between his rookie year and last year he cut his K rate from 28.5% to 22.6%, upped his walk rate, and raised his ISO 32 points. About all that kept him from having an excellent season last year was a BABIP that was almost 50 points lower than what he had as a rookie and well below the BABIPs he managed in the minors. I'm throwing down my romeo on a 5 win season for Addy.

[Yeti]

Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo is a brutal top of the order for opposing pitchers.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Zobrist come up for his first AB in several games this season with the Cubs already up 3-0 with nobody out.

Several times? I would