Let's Really Win Two: the 2017 Postseason thread

[Tonker]

It's done.  If the Cubs miss the postseason I will literally chop off, cook and eat my own penis.

Lets talk about it here.  The postseason, I mean, not my penis.  If you want to talk about my penis, PM me.

[flannj]

/quote]

That'll be a short conversation.

Good God did I fuck that up

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I have but 2 questions at this point...

Who starts on the mound games 1 and 2?
Who leads off (corollary--what's the lineup going to look like?)

[SKO]

I have but 2 questions at this point...

Who starts on the mound games 1 and 2?
Who leads off (corollary--what's the lineup going to look like?)

Right now my playoff rotation would be Hendricks/Arrieta/Quintana. Arguably Quintana has been the best pitcher of the three in everything other than ERA and even then his ERA has started to fall in line with his peripherals since outside of a handful of rough games as both a Cub and White Sock. But I still think Kyle is the ace of this staff right now, and Arrieta looked as good as he was before the injury, assuming he finishes his next two starts strong he'd be my #2. Then you start Q in G3.

If Lester looks at all like himself in his last two starts I say you give him G4 but you have Montgomery ready to go at the first sign of trouble.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I have but 2 questions at this point...

Who starts on the mound games 1 and 2?
Who leads off (corollary--what's the lineup going to look like?)

Right now my playoff rotation would be Hendricks/Arrieta/Quintana. Arguably Quintana has been the best pitcher of the three in everything other than ERA and even then his ERA has started to fall in line with his peripherals since outside of a handful of rough games as both a Cub and White Sock. But I still think Kyle is the ace of this staff right now, and Arrieta looked as good as he was before the injury, assuming he finishes his next two starts strong he'd be my #2. Then you start Q in G3.

If Lester looks at all like himself in his last two starts I say you give him G4 but you have Montgomery ready to go at the first sign of trouble.

Considering the LH strength Washington possesses on offense, any chance Q gets bumped up?

Also, I'm not actually worried about Lester, last half of the season be damned.  Regardless of how he pitches in these next 2 starts, I have faith that he'll be ready and, if that's the case, he'd make a helluva #4.

[Quality Start Machine]

I have but 2 questions at this point...

Who starts on the mound games 1 and 2?
Who leads off (corollary--what's the lineup going to look like?)

Right now my playoff rotation would be Hendricks/Arrieta/Quintana. Arguably Quintana has been the best pitcher of the three in everything other than ERA and even then his ERA has started to fall in line with his peripherals since outside of a handful of rough games as both a Cub and White Sock. But I still think Kyle is the ace of this staff right now, and Arrieta looked as good as he was before the injury, assuming he finishes his next two starts strong he'd be my #2. Then you start Q in G3.

If Lester looks at all like himself in his last two starts I say you give him G4 but you have Montgomery ready to go at the first sign of trouble.

Considering the LH strength Washington possesses on offense, any chance Q gets bumped up?

Also, I'm not actually worried about Lester, last half of the season be damned.  Regardless of how he pitches in these next 2 starts, I have faith that he'll be ready and, if that's the case, he'd make a helluva #4.

Also, does anyone have a significant home/road split? But I'd think Joe would want to get Lester and Q in there sooner rather than later.

But one thing that gives me confidence is the manager in the other dugout.

[SKO]

I honestly think we're in a place where it doesn't really matter. I like our four guys vs their four guys. Hell I might throw Lester in G1 against Scherzer. Best case scenario you get vintage Lester and he can beat Scherzer. Worst case you've thrown *maybe* your worst starter (right now anyway) against their ace, and can hopefully clean up with the rest of your best guys.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I honestly think we're in a place where it doesn't really matter. I like our four guys vs their four guys. Hell I might throw Lester in G1 against Scherzer. Best case scenario you get vintage Lester and he can beat Scherzer. Worst case you've thrown *maybe* your worst starter (right now anyway) against their ace, and can hopefully clean up with the rest of your best guys.

This is a good thought.  I'm also thinking--though I have nothing to back it up--that Hendricks might be more effective at home.  Maybe I'm hung up on the gem he threw to clinch the pennant but even though an argument could be made that he should start G1 on the grounds that your best starter opens up the playoffs and Hendricks is arguably their best starter right now, I wouldn't be shocked, or even disappointed, if it's Lester/Arrieta (who really does seem to have brass balls on the road)/Hendricks/Qunitana

[Quality Start Machine]

I honestly think we're in a place where it doesn't really matter. I like our four guys vs their four guys. Hell I might throw Lester in G1 against Scherzer. Best case scenario you get vintage Lester and he can beat Scherzer. Worst case you've thrown *maybe* your worst starter (right now anyway) against their ace, and can hopefully clean up with the rest of your best guys.

This is a good thought.  I'm also thinking--though I have nothing to back it up--that Hendricks might be more effective at home.  Maybe I'm hung up on the gem he threw to clinch the pennant but even though an argument could be made that he should start G1 on the grounds that your best starter opens up the playoffs and Hendricks is arguably their best starter right now, I wouldn't be shocked, or even disappointed, if it's Lester/Arrieta (who really does seem to have brass balls on the road)/Hendricks/Qunitana

Last year Hendricks was a significantly (His Wrigley ERA was 1.32 and his WHIP was under 1) better pitcher at home.

This year his road splits are a little better, but that could also just be a by-product of his getting more road starts once he got back into form.

[SKO]

I'll say this-- knowing the Cubs have their ring in the bag and since they appear to have avoided the one scenario in which I'd have deemed this year a disappointment (either losing the division to STL or MIL or losing to STL in the playoffs--in fact they're doing the exact opposite and clinching/eliminating STL in one fell swoop this week, probably) I'm just going to let this October play out however it will.

This NL is a total pick 'em now that the Dodgers have regressed back to the mean. LA has had arguably the worst offense in the second half of any of the NL contenders and their pitching staff has lots of health/effectiveness questions. The Nationals have a top-heavy rotation but otherwise their offense has slowed down of late and seems mostly a product of consistently hammering a weak division. The Diamondbacks maybe have the best rotation of any contender outside of Cleveland and nobody has heard of half of them, not to mention they have some heavy hitters in Goldy, Martinez, Pollack, etc. The Rockies have a surprisingly good pitching staff and always have a potent homefield advantage. I wouldn't be surprised if any of the 5 likely NL playoff teams wins the pennant.

The AL seems to have a clear favorite right now in Cleveland but they aren't so far ahead of the pack. This is shaping up to be one hell of an October and hopefully the Cubs are going all of the way to the end of it but even if they don't for once I might just be able to watch the rest of the playoffs and see who wins it all rather than spend several months pretending baseball doesn't exist and didn't just break my heart.

[Quality Start Machine]

I'm just going to let this October play out however it will.

Oh, come on.

[Oleg]

1. Are home/road splits for pitchers a real thing?  I kind of feel like it's just a bunch of noise and decisions like who starts when should probably not be made on that basis.

2. The game 1 starter will probably also be the potential game 5 starter, which is how I feel that decision should be made, which may point to Hendricks, depending on how much 'clutch' stock you put into pitchers (or any player) based on LCS 6 and WS 7 last year.

[SKO]

I'm just going to let this October play out however it will.

Oh, come on.

Oh I don't blame anyone for not believing me, and I will be disappointed if they don't win because obviously that is the goal, just saying that the only way I'd have been angry or felt they under-achieved this season would have been if they failed to win the division. Repeats are hard because the playoffs are random and getting through that Rube Goldberg machine twice in a row is nigh impossible. The fact that the existential dread of "will they ever actually do it?" is now gone means that I don't have to spend the rest of October wishing I was dead if they get eliminated.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I'm just going to let this October play out however it will.

Oh, come on.

Oh I don't blame anyone for not believing me, and I will be disappointed if they don't win because obviously that is the goal, just saying that the only way I'd have been angry or felt they under-achieved this season would have been if they failed to win the division. Repeats are hard because the playoffs are random and getting through that Rube Goldberg machine twice in a row is nigh impossible. The fact that the existential dread of "will they ever actually do it?" is now gone means that I don't have to spend the rest of October wishing I was dead if they get eliminated.

Oh, come on.

[SKO]

I'm just going to let this October play out however it will.

Oh, come on.

Oh I don't blame anyone for not believing me, and I will be disappointed if they don't win because obviously that is the goal, just saying that the only way I'd have been angry or felt they under-achieved this season would have been if they failed to win the division. Repeats are hard because the playoffs are random and getting through that Rube Goldberg machine twice in a row is nigh impossible. The fact that the existential dread of "will they ever actually do it?" is now gone means that I don't have to spend the rest of October wishing I was dead if they get eliminated.

Oh, come on.

I don't understand why no one believes me here.