Let's Really Win Two: the 2017 Postseason thread

[Chuck to Chuck]

2003 was painful, extremely painful, but I was also fairly young, it was the first real title run they'd mounted in my lifetime, I foolishly thought they'd be back soon.

Yep. That's may feelings about 1984 and 2003. I remember in 1984 it was, "They'll be back and good for years." In 2003 it was, "Fuck, it's going to be another 19 more years."

Only off by 6.

Being 33% wrong is the rightest Internet Chuck has ever been.  Also, that was kind of a stupid thing to think in 2003 considering Prior hadn't really had any non-weird injuries yet and they got DLee in that off-season.  Oh yeah, you don't actually like The Cubs.

It was stupid in 1984 to think that they wouldn't stay good with a 24 year old Sandberg, 26 year old Durham, 27 year old Davis, 26 year old Trout and Smith and 28 year old Sutcliffe.

It was stupid in 1989 to think that they wouldn't stay good with a 25 year old Grace, 23 year old Walton, 26 year old Dunston, 23 year old Maddux and 29 year old Sandberg.

By 2003, there was scar tissue. The future is promised to no one. Things fall apart.

2016 is to be cherished forever.

[CBStew]

We'll always have 2016.

Since we're comparing notes, Stew how did you feel after the 1910 World Series? Did you feel dejected that they'd lost, aware that their championship window was closing, or were you optimistic for the future?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFl9o48xsLU
If you look closely you will see me sitting with my grandson in the right field bleachers.

[Quality Start Machine]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

[Chuck to Chuck]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

Agreed. I wasn't saying we should be satisfied. Just that it's cherished. I'm good with a Giants level every-other-year thing for the next 10 years.

[CubFaninHydePark]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

I'm with you, but they're going to need to find a way to add 1 - 2 elite starters (two if Hendricks turns out to be just the really, really good one) and 1 - 2 elite relievers (depending on whether Carl's Jr. can get to that level) to have this sort of "era."  Good pitching is going to beat good hitting too frequently for the offensive talent the Cubs have to matter in the postseason without a significantly better rotation and bullpen.

[Armchair_QB]

2003 was painful, extremely painful, but I was also fairly young, it was the first real title run they'd mounted in my lifetime, I foolishly thought they'd be back soon.

Yep. That's may feelings about 1984 and 2003. I remember in 1984 it was, "They'll be back and good for years." In 2003 it was, "Fuck, it's going to be another 19 more years."

Only off by 6.

Maybe because it was the first one, but 84 hurt more than the other ones for me. 2003, 2007 and 2008 just pissed me off but 84 hurt.

[D. Doluntap]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

I'm with you, but they're going to need to find a way to add 1 - 2 elite starters (two if Hendricks turns out to be just the really, really good one) and 1 - 2 elite relievers (depending on whether Carl's Jr. can get to that level) to have this sort of "era."  Good pitching is going to beat good hitting too frequently for the offensive talent the Cubs have to matter in the postseason without a significantly better rotation and bullpen.

Hopefully one of the 100 or so pitchers Thed has drafted the past four years can amount to something.

[SKO]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

My only issue with this is how much more random and difficult it is to win a title in baseball than in those sports. The Braves won their division 14 years in a row and went to the playoffs 17 times in 22 years. They made five world series. They won one of them. This sport is random and cruel and I can tell you that if the Cubs have that exact run there's no way in hell I'm walking away calling that a disappointment or comparing them to a legitimate fluke like the 2005 White Sox or a self-defeating would-be dynasty like the Bears.

[Quality Start Machine]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

My only issue with this is how much more random and difficult it is to win a title in baseball than in those sports. The Braves won their division 14 years in a row and went to the playoffs 17 times in 22 years. They made five world series. They won one of them. This sport is random and cruel and I can tell you that if the Cubs have that exact run there's no way in hell I'm walking away calling that a disappointment or comparing them to a legitimate fluke like the 2005 White Sox or a self-defeating would-be dynasty like the Bears.

There ain't no salary cap in baseball, son.

[SKO]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

My only issue with this is how much more random and difficult it is to win a title in baseball than in those sports. The Braves won their division 14 years in a row and went to the playoffs 17 times in 22 years. They made five world series. They won one of them. This sport is random and cruel and I can tell you that if the Cubs have that exact run there's no way in hell I'm walking away calling that a disappointment or comparing them to a legitimate fluke like the 2005 White Sox or a self-defeating would-be dynasty like the Bears.

There ain't no salary cap in baseball, son.

I didn't say it's harder to put together a title-worthy team, the actual physical act of winning a title is harder because playoff games are random as hell. There is a reason literally everyone and their mother has penciled in Cavs-Warriors as the NBA Finals matchup each of the last three years and it has happened every single time.

The Braves only won five pennants in seventeen tries, and they managed to win the world series only once in those five cracks at it. This was in spite of having three hall of fame starting pitchers in the rotation most of the time. As long as the Cubs actually compete for a title basically every year of this window, I won't write them off as a disappointment like the 80s Bears if they never actually manage to make it through three straight series of chaos and win another one. It would be a shame if they didn't, but I wouldn't put it on the players, just the cruel nature of the sport itself.

[Quality Start Machine]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

My only issue with this is how much more random and difficult it is to win a title in baseball than in those sports. The Braves won their division 14 years in a row and went to the playoffs 17 times in 22 years. They made five world series. They won one of them. This sport is random and cruel and I can tell you that if the Cubs have that exact run there's no way in hell I'm walking away calling that a disappointment or comparing them to a legitimate fluke like the 2005 White Sox or a self-defeating would-be dynasty like the Bears.

There ain't no salary cap in baseball, son.

I didn't say it's harder to put together a title-worthy team, the actual physical act of winning a title is harder because playoff games are random as hell. There is a reason literally everyone and their mother has penciled in Cavs-Warriors as the NBA Finals matchup each of the last three years and it has happened every single time.

The Braves only won five pennants in seventeen tries, and they managed to win the world series only once in those five cracks at it. This was in spite of having three hall of fame starting pitchers in the rotation most of the time. As long as the Cubs actually compete for a title basically every year of this window, I won't write them off as a disappointment like the 80s Bears if they never actually manage to make it through three straight series of chaos and win another one. It would be a shame if they didn't, but I wouldn't put it on the players, just the cruel nature of the sport itself.

Using the Braves as the example, they were able to keep three hall of fame starting pitchers for essentially the entirety of their run. In hockey it's a given that the championship (or even contention) window is a very short one because you lose key components due to the salary cap. And playoff baseball is nowhere near as random as playoff hockey.

[SKO]

2016 is to be cherished forever.

2016 isn't enough. I don't want this aggregate of Cubs to live off that magical year like the 1985 Bears or 2005 White Sox. Fuck that.

I want them to have an era, like the Bulls or Blackhawks. Where a core group of players are remembered for being dominant and being the absolute best in franchise history. Where we each have a collection of World Champion hats, books and videos.

I want 2016 to signal the beginning, like the 2010 Blackhawks. I want to someday have memories of great Cubs moments and have to stop for a second to make sure I have which time they won it all right.

My only issue with this is how much more random and difficult it is to win a title in baseball than in those sports. The Braves won their division 14 years in a row and went to the playoffs 17 times in 22 years. They made five world series. They won one of them. This sport is random and cruel and I can tell you that if the Cubs have that exact run there's no way in hell I'm walking away calling that a disappointment or comparing them to a legitimate fluke like the 2005 White Sox or a self-defeating would-be dynasty like the Bears.

There ain't no salary cap in baseball, son.

I didn't say it's harder to put together a title-worthy team, the actual physical act of winning a title is harder because playoff games are random as hell. There is a reason literally everyone and their mother has penciled in Cavs-Warriors as the NBA Finals matchup each of the last three years and it has happened every single time.

The Braves only won five pennants in seventeen tries, and they managed to win the world series only once in those five cracks at it. This was in spite of having three hall of fame starting pitchers in the rotation most of the time. As long as the Cubs actually compete for a title basically every year of this window, I won't write them off as a disappointment like the 80s Bears if they never actually manage to make it through three straight series of chaos and win another one. It would be a shame if they didn't, but I wouldn't put it on the players, just the cruel nature of the sport itself.

Using the Braves as the example, they were able to keep three hall of fame starting pitchers for essentially the entirety of their run. In hockey it's a given that the championship (or even contention) window is a very short one because you lose key components due to the salary cap. And playoff baseball is nowhere near as random as playoff hockey.

You're not listening. Yes, in baseball it's easier to keep a title window open longer thanks to the lack of salary cap. The actual postseason itself is far more random. A 162 game schedule shortened to best of 5s and best of 7s inserts a lot more randomness. Baseball hasn't had a repeat champion since 2000. The National League hasn't had a team win back-to-back world series since 1975-1976.

And no, the baseball playoffs are by the far most random: http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2013/09/undeserving-champions-examining-variance-in-the-postseason/

The best the Cubs can do is a put a team in position to win the division every single year while they have this core, and then hope the October lottery shakes out to their advantage at least one more time, but it is a lottery, and I'm not going to be mad at this group if they come away with only one winning ticket.

[SKO]

Since 1969, when MLB first instituted playoffs, hockey has had 17 different Stanley Cup Champions. . Baseball has had 21 different champs, but only

Hockey has had two 4-peats, 8 repeat champs. Baseball has had zero 4-peats, just two 3-peats, and only 5 repeat champs (just 2 since 1980, Hockey has had 6 repeat champs in that timeframe).

Salary caps have helped the NHL to increase parity somewhat but even in the salary cap era it has been routinely easier to win multiple titles as a hockey franchise than a baseball franchise. MLB playoffs are why

[Quality Start Machine]

Since 1969, when MLB first instituted playoffs, hockey has had 17 different Stanley Cup Champions. . Baseball has had 21 different champs, but only

Hockey has had two 4-peats, 8 repeat champs. Baseball has had zero 4-peats, just two 3-peats, and only 5 repeat champs (just 2 since 1980, Hockey has had 6 repeat champs in that timeframe).

Salary caps have helped the NHL to increase parity somewhat but even in the salary cap era it has been routinely easier to win multiple titles as a hockey franchise than a baseball franchise. MLB playoffs are why

The dividing line for hockey is 2004, when the Cap was instituted. The Blackhawks and Penguins have each won 3 Cups since then, because each team has managed to have a combination of elite players and guys performing before hitting their big payday.

So in a place like Toronto, everyone is enjoying a team that is primed to make a run at the Cup while simultaneously knowing it's only a matter of time before the team breaks up.

[SKO]

Since 1969, when MLB first instituted playoffs, hockey has had 17 different Stanley Cup Champions. . Baseball has had 21 different champs, but only

Hockey has had two 4-peats, 8 repeat champs. Baseball has had zero 4-peats, just two 3-peats, and only 5 repeat champs (just 2 since 1980, Hockey has had 6 repeat champs in that timeframe).

Salary caps have helped the NHL to increase parity somewhat but even in the salary cap era it has been routinely easier to win multiple titles as a hockey franchise than a baseball franchise. MLB playoffs are why

The dividing line for hockey is 2004, when the Cap was instituted. The Blackhawks and Penguins have each won 3 Cups since then, because each team has managed to have a combination of elite players and guys performing before hitting their big payday.

So in a place like Toronto, everyone is enjoying a team that is primed to make a run at the Cup while simultaneously knowing it's only a matter of time before the team breaks up.

Since 2004 there've been 8 unique champions, three teams with at least two Cups, two teams with 3 cups. There have been 17 different teams who have even made a Stanley Cup appearance.

MLB has had 8 unique champions since 2004, three teams with at least 2 WS wins, two teams with 3. 15 different teams who have made a world series appearance. So if you go by number of unique champions it appears that, at best, hockey's cap has managed to make them about as random as MLB, if you go by correlation of regular season success to champhionships, per the Harvard methodology, it's still harder to win an MLB title even as a good regular season MLB team than to win a Stanley Cup final.

You can argue the NHL has narrowed the gap, but there's not one shred of evidence that hockey playoffs are "more random" than MLB playoffs. None.