The 2018 Cubes: 2 World, 2 Serious?

[SKO]

Look I have spent well over a year working on my plan to launch Jason Heyward into the sun with a comically large trebuchet, I'm not going to be dissuaded unless that fucker posts at least a league average wRC+ from the jump.

[Uncouth Sloth]

If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no

[Oleg]

Who bats leadoff?

Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.

Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.

Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.

So you hope that by June, they've identified the one guy who is their best leadoff hitter, and that they then not use that person as their everyday leadoff hitter.

I'm sure the Cubs have their analysis about who would be best suited in that spot on any given day, and I'm sure that might change as the year progresses and their analysis is updated based on actual play.

Didn't you used to be a writer?

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no

Zobrist is possibly done as an everyday player and even if he's not Joe's going to have enough of a challenge spreading at-bats around to ensure that Happ gets his 380, if need be, let alone this older shell-of-a-version of Happ.  Sacrificing a good team at the altar of Having a Leadoff Hitter seems to be a bit of an overreaction.  Having a premier one like Fowler is great, but not every team has one at that level.  Hell, of all the spots that Zobrist has batted in his career, even he has been least productive at leadoff so even he's not as good as you would think (in case you want a reminder, point to Ben swinging at the first pitch his first TWO times up against Strasburg and meekly putting the ball in play in that otherwise Totally Awesome Game 1 of the LDS last year--part of what helped Strasburg have 10 K's by the 6th inning but still managing to be below 90 pitches)

I personally think Schwarber should just do it again but the reactionary meatball mob is already convinced that batting leadoff is what sunk Schwarber's 1st half last year and Joe probably doesn't want the headache.  In that case I think they should consider Heyward and Almora--depending on the handedness of the pitcher.  This team scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year even without a steady consistent presence at the top, and they'll probably do it again this year regardless of who's leading off....unless of course it's Zobrist.

[Quality Start Machine]

If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no

Zobrist is possibly done as an everyday player and even if he's not Joe's going to have enough of a challenge spreading at-bats around to ensure that Happ gets his 380, if need be, let alone this older shell-of-a-version of Happ.  Sacrificing a good team at the altar of Having a Leadoff Hitter seems to be a bit of an overreaction.  Having a premier one like Fowler is great, but not every team has one at that level.  Hell, of all the spots that Zobrist has batted in his career, even he has been least productive at leadoff so even he's not as good as you would think (in case you want a reminder, point to Ben swinging at the first pitch his first TWO times up against Strasburg and meekly putting the ball in play in that otherwise Totally Awesome Game 1 of the LDS last year--part of what helped Strasburg have 10 K's by the 6th inning but still managing to be below 90 pitches)

I personally think Schwarber should just do it again but the reactionary meatball mob is already convinced that batting leadoff is what sunk Schwarber's 1st half last year and Joe probably doesn't want the headache.  In that case I think they should consider Heyward and Almora--depending on the handedness of the pitcher.  This team scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year even without a steady consistent presence at the top, and they'll probably do it again this year regardless of who's leading off....unless of course it's Zobrist.

The highest OBP of anybody on the 2017 Cubs not named Rizzo or Bryant was Jon Jay. Right that wrong.

[Canadouche]

Who bats leadoff?

Seems to be the only question going into Spring Training, aside from the last bullpen roster spot.

Shouldn't be an issue - the Cubs have the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history on their squad.

Regardless of who they start at leadoff, I hope/assume that by mid June they've identified their best option based on play up to that point, and that they continue to change the person in that role as needed based on situational hitting.

So you hope that by June, they've identified the one guy who is their best leadoff hitter, and that they then not use that person as their everyday leadoff hitter.

I'm sure the Cubs have their analysis about who would be best suited in that spot on any given day, and I'm sure that might change as the year progresses and their analysis is updated based on actual play.

Didn't you used to be a writer?

Used to.

[Uncouth Sloth]

If Zobrist is healthy, then put him there. If he's 2017 Zobrist, then of course, no

Zobrist is possibly done as an everyday player and even if he's not Joe's going to have enough of a challenge spreading at-bats around to ensure that Happ gets his 380, if need be, let alone this older shell-of-a-version of Happ.  Sacrificing a good team at the altar of Having a Leadoff Hitter seems to be a bit of an overreaction.  Having a premier one like Fowler is great, but not every team has one at that level.  Hell, of all the spots that Zobrist has batted in his career, even he has been least productive at leadoff so even he's not as good as you would think (in case you want a reminder, point to Ben swinging at the first pitch his first TWO times up against Strasburg and meekly putting the ball in play in that otherwise Totally Awesome Game 1 of the LDS last year--part of what helped Strasburg have 10 K's by the 6th inning but still managing to be below 90 pitches)

I personally think Schwarber should just do it again but the reactionary meatball mob is already convinced that batting leadoff is what sunk Schwarber's 1st half last year and Joe probably doesn't want the headache.  In that case I think they should consider Heyward and Almora--depending on the handedness of the pitcher.  This team scored the 2nd most runs in the NL last year even without a steady consistent presence at the top, and they'll probably do it again this year regardless of who's leading off....unless of course it's Zobrist.

The highest OBP of anybody on the 2017 Cubs not named Rizzo or Bryant was Jon Jay. Right that wrong.

I note on all the 'prediction' sites that nearly all Cubs are predicted to hit fewer homers and drive in fewer runs (as is the conservative nature of predictions) but almost all of them forecast significantly higher OBP for every last Cub not named Rizzo or Bryant.

So, that's good, I guess?

[SKO]

The lineup I'd want based on 50th percentile Projections at BP:

Schwarber LF: .243/.346/.495, 33 dongers
Bryant 3B: .280/.381/.518, 30 dongers
Rizzo 1B: .276/.376/.502, 30 dongers
Willson C: .285/.362/.488, 21 dongers
Happ CF: .246/.321/464, 23 dongers
Baez 2B: .252/.301/.435, 22 dongers
Russell SS: .246/.317/.418, 18 dongers
Heyward RF: .261/.341/.395, 11 dongers

Bench:
Almora: .273/.311/.421, 12 dongers
La Stella: .262/.343/.389, 3 dongers
Zobrist: .260/.349/.399 10 dongers
Gimenez: .231/.321/.370, 6 dongers


There's basically not a guy up there I would be surprised to see out-perform that projection (other than Heyward, I'm taking the under there) and yet basically as long as the most likely scenario plays out for most of these guys this team is going to score all of the fucking runs. So many runs.

[Canadouche]

I feel like this team could be better than 2016. Like, a lot better.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I feel like this team could be better than 2016. Like, a lot better.

Slow down, cowboy.

Let's start with them being better than the 2017 team, which I happen to fully expect them to be.  Bettering 2016 would be a hell of a feat.

[SKO]

I feel like this team could be better than 2016. Like, a lot better.

Slow down, cowboy.

Let's start with them being better than the 2017 team, which I happen to fully expect them to be.  Bettering 2016 would be a hell of a feat.

I like this team's offense better than 2016, I think, and I think this pitching staff might have more raw talent than 2016 did, but I really don't see anyway they could possibly replicate just how ridiculously good that team was at preventing runs. A Schwarber/HappMora/Heyward outfield just isn't as good defensively as Zobrist/Fowler/Heyward, the offensive environment of the league has changed thanks to the totally-not-juiced ball, and while I am of the opinion that the Cubs historically low BABIP allowed in 2016 was more talent than luck, it was still somewhat lucky and hard to duplicate.

TL, DR: I think they'll allow more runs than 2016 (though they should still be a top 5 pitching staff this year IMO) and will score more, so in the wash their best case scenario is probably Just As Good But Different.

[R-V]

In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?

2017
2016
2008
1984
1969
?

[R-V]

In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?

2017
2016
2008
1984
1969
?

3 out of 5 ain't bad:

2008   855 runs
1998   831 runs
2017   822 runs
2016   808 runs
1970   806 runs

1984 checks in at #10 with 762 runs
1969 is way down at #15 with 720 runs

It's still interesting to me that the 2017 group outscored the 2016 team that had Fower at the top and a healthy/productive Zobrist.

[SKO]

In the last 50 years, there have been 5 Cubs teams that scored 800+ runs. Can Huey name all of them?

2017
2016
2008
1984
1969
?

3 out of 5 ain't bad:

2008   855 runs
1998   831 runs
2017   822 runs
2016   808 runs
1970   806 runs

1984 checks in at #10 with 762 runs
1969 is way down at #15 with 720 runs

It's still interesting to me that the 2017 group outscored the 2016 team that had Fower at the top and a healthy/productive Zobrist.

They were an insanely good offense in the 2nd half last year.

Second half OPS:
Contreras: .993
Bryant .968
Rizzo: .906
Schwarber: .894
Baez: .851
Russell: .839
Happ: .814

I dunno about you but I feel like filling out a lineup where 7 guys are OPS'ing above .800 is fun.

There's no real correlation that shows that second half numbers carry over better than full season numbers but man is it fun to see what this offense can be when they all click